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Analyzing Short and Long-Term Market Trends and Patterns

Lee Adler
Cycles

The up phases in cycles from 13 weeks to 10-12 months have strengthened. The only cycle with a projection is the 6 month cycle. It points to a high of xxxx ideally due xxxxxx xxxxxx. A variance of a month or so is normal.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Cycle Screening Measures

These measures continue to xxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxx  with 6 month cycle measures suggesting xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail   

The market is moving toward the apex of a wedge pattern at xxxx this week. The lower trendline of the sharpest short term channel rises from xxxx to xxxx this week. If the market is above xxxx on Friday, it’s still a strong uptrend. Clearing that would suggest acceleration toward a quick move to xxxx.  Even if they break the lower line, a short term uptrend would still be in force until there’s a close below xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long-Term Weekly Chart

The market is rising mid channel with clearance to xxxx at year end. Channel support rises from xxxx to near xxxx.Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart

The lower channel bound is at xxxx this month. The upper bound is around xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Warning Signs: Are Primary Dealers Indicating a Market Top?

Lee Adler

Measures of Primary Dealer holdings, financing and hedging are flashing warnings of an approaching stock market top. After surging for a couple of years they’re diverging from supporting bullish stock and bond market price trends. The last time this happened was in 2021, in a process that lasted around 14 months before the market reversed. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

No two historical periods are identical. But the current divergences and signs of retrenchment have lasted almost as long as the prior instance. Once the mass psychology that fed the bullish trend begins to reverse, the deleveraging starts. That reversal then becomes self sustaining . First it happens slowly. Then it happens suddenly. We want to be on the alert to be out of long positions. We also want to position for shorts before that sudden phase hits.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Liquidity measures set the context. They’re warning that we’re in the late stage of this bull market. It’s time to be alert to any signs of reversal in the technical indicators. For the bond market, that could be something as simple as the 10 year yield xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx. Once that happens, the potential for a hard selloff in the bond market increases. That could erupt into contagion to stocks. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

However, there’s a wild card. Come January 2, the Federal debt ceiling will be reimposed. The incoming administration will begin to deal with that on January 20. The new government has yet to tip its hand. Will it allow the clock to run until Treasury cash runs down to zero until it raises the debt limit? Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The Treasury’s practice in past episodes of debt ceiling roulette has been to use Treasury cash to pay down T-bills. Meanwhile it continues issuing coupon debt on the pre-ordained schedule. That has bullish effects for stocks, because T-bill paydown pump cash back into investor and dealer accounts. Some players then deploy that into the stock market. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

That effect would last until Treasury cash approaches zero. If that’s the policy choice, that process takes 5-6 months to reach a climax. At that point, they must raise the debt limit. Otherwise we leap into the unknown where the US government can’t pay its bills. I reveal what that would mean in this report. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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Top Stock Charts: This Week’s Insights

Lee Adler

The screens produced 43 charts meeting both long term, intermediate, and short term buy side criteria. Only one met all sell side criteria. On visual review I liked 2 of the buys and will add them to the list on Monday. I took a pass on the one short sale candidate. Here’s the updated list for this week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

One pick will be counted as covered at the opening price on Monday. I have added stops to 7 others.  

Charts of Open and New Picks To view the list and charts of open picks, Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails. If you use those services, please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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Gold’s Setup for End November

Lee Adler

A 13 week cycle low was due but confirmation is needed. Holding above the last low, followed by an upturn would be a good start. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gate keeper are blocking Liquiditytrader emails.  Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Weekly Stock Trading Signals: 7 Buys and 9 Sells

Lee Adler

There were 553 short-term buy signals and 321 short-term sell signals in the screens this week. After applying long term and intermediate term filters, there were 7 buys and 9 sells.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

On visual review I liked 1 of the buys and added it to the list. I chose none of the short sale candidates this week. Here’s the updated list. Non-subscribers click here for access.

One pick will be counted as covered at the opening price on Monday. I have added stops to 7 others.  

I assume risk management through small position sizes and diversification. Your approach may differ.

Including open picks as of November 21, and those closed last week, the list had an average gain of 7.2% on average holding period of 17 calendar days. That was up from 5.6% the previous week also on the average holding period 17 calendar days.  Picks closed in October had an average gain of +1.3 % on an average holding period of 27 calendar days. Picks closed in September had an average gain of 1.6% on an average holding period of 20 calendar days. 

Charts of Open and New Picks To view the list and charts of open picks, Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails. If you use those services, please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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Market Cycle Outlook: December Predictions Levels and Timing

Lee Adler
Cycles

The pending test of the post-election high looms large. If the market clears xxxx, then it would clear the way for a run to xxxx in December. That would make it eminently doable for the initial 6 month and 10-12 month cycle projection of xxxx by late March. But if it stalls with no breakout, we should be alert for xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Cycle Screening Measures

For the time being, the uptrend remains xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxx xxxxx. The slower measures are in xxxxxxxxxxx  patterns, or are neutral, but there’s no xxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxx signal.

Third Rail   

The key trend support levels on Monday are around xxxx and xxxx. If either of those xxxx xxx, then the uptrend xxx xxxx xxxx xxxx. Those lines rise through the week to xxxx and xxxx. If the market is xxxxx those levels on Friday, xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxx. Even if they break, a short term uptrend would still be in force until there’s a close below 5845.

Long-Term Weekly Chart

3-4 year cycle indicators have whipsawed, and may be signaling trending as opposed to the beginning of xxxx xxxxxxx. As long as they stay flat in this range, the xxxx  xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxx.

 Monthly Chart

10/21/24 The market is approaching its upper channel bound at xxxx, now, rising to around xxxx in November and xxxx in December.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Bulletin- Treasury Debt Insights: Heavy Supply and T-bills

Lee Adler

The coupon offering for the end of the month has been posted. Net new supply $145 billion. My forecast estimate was $130 billion. The language used in the quarterly refunding announcement as to whether the Fed’s QT is included or not is inscrutable. I misinterpreted it, hence my miss of $15 billion. But, indeed, heavy supply is heavy supply.

Either way, this is bad news. It doesn’t even count the new T-bills. But that’s ok because, as we know, T-bills are insta-money. That is, if the players want to use it that way. T-bills also make nice places to sit out.

It’s mind blowing supply.  Ponzi Much? Understanding Treasury Debt and Market Fragility

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Stock Market Outlook: Extreme Valuations, Liquidity Growth, and the Road to the Next Bear Market

Lee Adler

Stock prices remain extended versus liquidity beyond any extreme seen since the 2000 internet/tech bubble peak. But that alone isn’t enough for a sell signal. Liquidity is still growing. There’s nothing to stop it from continuing to grow. And there is nothing to stop valuation, which is nothing more than a measure of long-term market sentiment, from getting even more extreme for the foreseeable future. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Indeed, when sentiment turns, this is unlikely to result in merely a garden variety correction. The greater likelihood is a great bear market, with a crash or two along the way.  But we aren’t there yet. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

In addition, the re-imposition of the debt limit on January 2 will likely result in the political Kabuki theater that typically accompanies these episodes. This report shows what that means for the timing of the next stock market top. And it explains what the likely result will be, and when to expect it. 

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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Short-Term Gold Miner Buys for Gold Bull Market

Lee Adler

We got the short term low, but there should still be more work to do for 13 week and 6 month cycle lows to complete. The long term uptrend remains intact. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

As of November 7 the list was empty and I added nothing last week, so avoided the post election carnage. But we were empty-handed for yesterday’s rally. It triggered 41 short term buys.  After applying long term structural and intermediate trend filters, there were 4 that were still standing. I chose 3 from that list and a 4th that also looked promising, to add to the list for this week. They were xxxx, xxxx, xxxx, and xxxx. Charts in subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gate keeper are blocking Liquiditytrader emails.  Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Effective Trading Strategies: Buys and Sells This Week

Lee Adler

There were 611 short-term sells and 222 short-term buys in the screens this week. After applying long term and intermediate term filters, there were 20 buys and 23 sells. The overwhelming number of short term sell signals were filtered out by the longer term cycle status and trend structures. In other words, to the screening algos, they looked too early to short. But we’ll be watching. We already have several on the list. No doubt there will be more in the weeks and months ahead. Non-subscribers click here for access.

On visual review I liked 3 of the buys and added them to the list. I chose none of the short sale candidates this week. To view the list and charts of open picks, non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

On visual review there were 17 buys that I liked. That was too many to add to the list so I chose 6 that I liked best. I chose 4 to add as shorts.

Including open picks as of November 15, and those closed last week, the list had an average gain of 5.6% on average holding period of 15 calendar days. That was down slightly from 5.8% the previous week, but with a reduction of the average holding period from 21 calendar days to 15. 

To view the list and charts of open picks, Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails. If you use those services, please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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