Menu Close

Lee Adler’s

Lee Adler’s

Menu

Liquidity Still Supports the Rally, But with Warnings

Lee Adler

There were no significant changes in the data this week. In looking at the big picture, I saw nothing that would materially change my analysis and outlook posted in the previous update posted August 19. However, I want to comment on an observation I made last week. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

8/19/24 That means that the more T-bills the Treasury issues, the more bullish it is, because of market participant willingness to use those bills to convert to cash, which then enters the banking system via the magic of government deficit spending. So not only does that T-bill issuance fund market speculation, it also stimulates the economy via deficit spending. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

It’s magic. And it will work until the system becomes so overleveraged that it breaks. We saw the first shot across the bow in recent weeks. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

I would only amend this to say that the more T-bills the Treasury issues, the more bullish it is, potentially, because dealers, banks, hedge funds and money market funds must make a proactive decision to employ that tactic. If they turn cautious, which I seem to recall happening a couple of times in ancient history, then the T-bill issuance can become a safe haven holding rather than collateral for increased speculation. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

That’s the transition for which we must always be alert. There’s nothing concrete pointing that way yet. However, in July we noted that we reached an extreme of hysteria on some measures that could be the precursor to an attitude adjustment. Here’s where that stands, and what to do about it, as of right now. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Along with the usual charts and explanations to paint the picture. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

Go to the post

The Market Still Blows

Lee Adler

We had a little power outage and loss of internet connectivity here in my neighborhood in Warsaw during the premarket hours that resulted in this delayed posting. Meanwhile, the market shows no sign of a power outage. The 6-month cycle second wind shows little sign of abating. Here are the new higher targets, and signs to look for.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Go to the post

More Power Please

Lee Adler

My usual Monday morning market update will be delayed today due to a power outage where I’m currently staying in Warsaw, Poland. The electricity just came back on after about a 2-hour outage that impacted the immediate neighborhood. I’m able to connect here via the phone but do not yet have internet connectivity for my computer, I was about halfway through this morning’s report when disaster struck.

I do apologize for the delay and I will be posting the report as soon as I’m able to reconnect via the computer.

Thanks hopefully I will be able to get something out to you very soon.

Go to the post

Swing Trade Screen Picks – We Caught the Turn

Lee Adler

Last week, we got a break, and the timing was good. Now is the time to let it ride, and adjust at the margins.

As of August 19, the list had an average gain of + 5.0% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That was up from +1.9% on an average holding period of 11 calendar days, the week before. The list grew by 15 new picks to 21 to start last week. That compares with just 6 picks two weeks ago. This week will start with 17 open picks.

Current screens yielded 483 short-term buys and 133 short-term sells. After applying long term trend structure and intermediate term filters, I whittled those down to 11 buys whose charts I reviewed, and 17 sells. I added one of each to the list.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

Go to the post

Gold Breakout Persists

Lee Adler

Gold broke out last week. The measured move targets from the prior breakout are now within reach.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gate keeper are blocking Liquiditytrader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!” THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

Go to the post

Nothing But Air

Lee Adler

There’s a lot of airspace with little resistance overhead, suggesting that the S&P 500 could see xxxx in September.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Go to the post

Liquidity Now Hinges on Mood

Lee Adler

DVP (Delivery versus payment) Repo, which is the bulk of the repo market, made a new high last week, supporting a bullish trend in stocks. The players continue to be ready and willing to use repo to acquire and finance holding Treasury inventory. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Coupon issuance at mid-month was light which eased the burden on the markets. At the same time, the Treasury has issued a tsunami of T-bills in July and August. That turns into repo. That is insta-money. T-bill issuance is effectively money printing as long as the players are willing to repo the T-bills. If they were not, they would need to liquidate assets to buy the new T-bills. They’d rather hold their stocks and bonds, and use repo to buy the bills. It’s cheap financing for their holdings of long-term financial assets. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

In view of this process, here’s an illustrated look ahead at what to expect to signal a final top in stock prices. See for yourself, understand, and decide based on these specific triggers. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

Go to the post

Bits and Pieces- Why What Was Bearish is Now Bullish

Lee Adler

Whereas, in the course of human events… Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Wait! Who starts a report with “Whereas!” I do! Whereas I’ve been summer vacation mode, traveling, I’m a bit behind on updated the Treasury supply and banking data. So I’ll reduce this to bite sized pieces for more current consumption over the next two days. First let’s start with Treasury supply. The Treasury and TBAC just released their latest 6-month supply estimates on July 31. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

In following reports, I’ll get to the Fed balance sheet data, which is released on Thursday evening, and then the banking data, released Friday evening. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Repo use surged last week in a massive breakout. Clearly, the players have decided that they are ready and willing to use repo to acquire and finance Treasury inventory. Coupon issuance for the August 15 mid-month refunding is light, but the Treasury has issued a tsunami of T-bills in July and August. Heavy coupon supply is due at month end. Then T-bill paydowns are coming in September as usual, thanks to the mid month estimated tax payment windfall. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Meanwhile, T-bill issuance has been massive in July and August. Back in the old days, I thought that T-bill issuance was bearish because buyers needed to liquidate existing assets to purchase them. That used to work, but now it is wrong, as we recognized when T-bill issuance surged in June. Here’s why, what it means for the market, and how to play it as a result. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

Go to the post

Swing Trade Screen Picks – Catching Many Fish

Lee Adler

The signals suggest that we caught an important turn here.  On Friday, 534 short term buy signals and 133 short-term sell signals triggered, out of the 1482 stocks that met minimum price and volume criteria. After applying long term structure filters there were 94 buys and 24 sells. I added 15 of the buys to the list, and 1 short. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

Go to the post

A Pit Oval Week Lies Ahead

Lee Adler

This week is pivotal to the cycle outlook. The 6-month cycle topped out too early, well ahead of its ideal time window. This leaves the potential for a vicious reaction rally, or even a second wind to the up phase. Or maybe not. This report tells you what to expect, and when.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Go to the post