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Real Time Tax Data Shows Nirvana for Stocks and Bonds, But It’s Temporary

Lee Adler

Withholding tax revenues rose sharply again in May (chart in subscriber version). Non withheld taxes also rose sharply. The economy is growing faster than the Fed would have you believe, and that the Wall Street mob seems to believe.

Revenue momentum is hot, hot, hot. But spending is hotter (table in subscriber version). The impact of economic stimulus will lead to economic overheating and embedded inflation.

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Meanwhile, the Treasury’s bloated cash account is coming down slowly. To get to the level legally mandated by the budget law by the deadline (reported in subscriber version), the Treasury will need to continue T-bill paydowns. This will continue to provide a bid for both stock and bond prices.

But that will all reverse, and we know when. The Treasury’s excess cash will be gone. Enormous monthly deficits will then need to be fully funded by borrowing. Hundreds of billions in new Treasury debt will start hitting the market for months to come. The pressure on the markets will multiply instantly.

Both bond and stock prices would begin to decline rapidly. The Fed would be forced to act.

The media is reporting the Fed is thinking about getting ready to talk about tapering bond purchases. Forget about it. It’s ridiculous. When the Treasury gets down to its required cash level, not only will the taper talk masturbation end, but Fed yield control, with unlimited QE, would be in play.

A slow Fed response would come too late to prevent real, and possibly lasting, damage to market prices of stocks and bonds (Treasury yield and price charts in subscriber version).

Meanwhile the US Treasury has pumped $600 billion into the accounts of holders of expiring T-bills since late February. Those holders are mostly money market funds, but include dealers and other big institutions. Dealers and big investors deploy that cash to buy longer term Treasuries and, in some cases, stocks. More paydowns are coming. That’s short term bullish for both bonds and stocks.

But beware! The end is nigh! And we know when. This report shows you how we reach this conclusion, and when you need to take action to either take advantage or get out of the way. With 9 beautiful charts and tables to show you exactly how and why we reach this conclusion!

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Available at this link for legacy Treasury subscribers.

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Have a question about Liquidity Trader? Click the chat link at the bottom right of the page, and I’ll be happy to answer your questions. I am often available to chat with you directly between the hours of 5 AM ET and 4 PM ET weekdays. At other times I’ll respond by email.

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days!

Act on real-time reality!

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Goldilocks Correlation is Still Bullish, Still Bullish After All These Years

Lee Adler

Stock prices are currently right in the middle of the channel surrounding the liquidity line in the Compositite Liquidity Chart (viewable in subscriber version). By this measure the market isn’t overbought, as so many bearish pundits are bellowing. Nor is it oversold. It’s just tracking the growth of systemic liquidity. Not too hot, not too cold, but just right. Goldilocks.

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Indicators Are Good As Gold

Lee Adler

Gold’s intermediate term indicators remain bullish, and mining picks are fine.

Subscribers, click here to download report.

Our mining picks held their own last week, and we’re holding on to them this week. Here’s the list, with charts.

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!  

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Dull as Hell, And Still Bull

Lee Adler

Cycles are still bullish, with the 6 month and 10-12 month cycles apparently in trending mode. This means that there are neither price projections nor time guesstimates for those. In these circumstances we need to resort to trend following indicators.

Cycle projections are only available for short term cycles. There are no projections for cycles from 13 weeks to 10-12 months. We’re flying blind as to likely upside targets on those. Short term projections point to xxxx-xxxx (subscriber version) during June.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

 

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Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Volatility Subsides, But Range Remains, Picking off Stops

Lee Adler

2/16/21 Every week I run technical stock screens covering all NYSE and NASD stocks trading above $6 and averaging more than 1 million shares a day. This typically results in between 15 and 50 charts to review visually. I’m looking for low risk, high reward price structures, which I’m not smart enough to program into the screening process. But it’s ok. I like to look at charts. 

The volatility subsided, but the range remained. 4 picks dipped below their stops. Were they too tight? Or is this the beginning of the end for the longs. Time will tell.

Meanwhile, list performance improved slightly to an average of +2.4%, up from +0.2% the week before, on an average holding period of  15 days, up from 10 days the week before. The percentage change assumes cash trades, no margin, no options.

The stopouts left just 4 picks on the list. All are longs, and all look ok to hold, with stops adjusted based on trigger lines in the charts. I added two more picks from Friday’s screen.

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Here’s Why the Treasury Paydowns Aren’t As Bullish As Expected

Lee Adler

The balance between QE and Treasury supply will remain bullish through through xxxx (subscribers only). This should provide a boost for stocks. It should keep the Treasury selloff at bay for another month or two.

However, this is not as bullish as I first thought. It appears that around 75% of the T-bill paydowns are going to money market funds and other institutions who must hold short term instruments instead of lengthening maturities or buying stocks. So most of the cash from the paydowns is ending up in Fed RRPs.

Only about ¼ of the money has been used to buy stocks and bonds. So the effect has been muted. There’s no massive blowoff. Instead conditions lend themselves to a churning topping action lasting through xxxx (subscribers).

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Gold and the Miners Still Have Work To Do

Lee Adler

Short term indicators for gold have edged to the sell side. The 13-17 week cycles are due for consolidation. However, cycle projections still point higher. The 9-12 month and 15 month cycle indicators continue to signal upturns, but they need to cross their zero lines to suggest more upside.

Subscribers, click here to download report.

Our mining picks held their own last week, and we’re holding on to them this week. Here’s the list, with charts.

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!  

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Stock Market Meat Grinder Running in an Uptrend

Lee Adler

As wild short term volatility chews up swing traders and spits them out, the market averages remain in an uptrend, and look poised to move higher. But fewer stocks will lead the way. Most may not participate. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

But wait! There’s more! Continue reading here if you haven’t subscribed yet.

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The Meat Grinder Prevails – Swing Trade Picks For Week of May 24, 2021

Lee Adler

2/16/21 Every week I run technical stock screens covering all NYSE and NASD stocks trading above $6 and averaging more than 1 million shares a day. This typically results in between 15 and 50 charts to review visually. I’m looking for low risk, high reward price structures, which I’m not smart enough to program into the screening process. But it’s ok. I like to look at charts. 😊

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Volatile rangebound trading is a meat grinder for swing trades. Last week lived up to that. List performance slipped to an average of +0.2%, down from +2.1% the week before, on an average holding period of 10 days, up from 8 days the week before. In trending markets this number would normally be around 13-14 days. The percentage change assumes cash trades, no margin, no options.

10 picks hit stop triggers, leaving 8 on the list. All are longs, and all look well positioned for additional gains, but I have kept stops tight, just in case. I have adjusted  most stops.

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Banking System Fragile As Fuse For Implosion Nears Ignition

Lee Adler

Every time there’s a critical problem in the banking system due to banker malfeasance, the Fed steps in to paper it over and reward the criminals.

That’s why we focus on the Fed more than anything else. Regular review of the banking indicators was useful once upon a time. The Fed has rendered them irrelevant. But I promised to keep an eye on them, and it has been 5 months since we last looked. That’s enough time that, if anything material has changed, we need to know about it. So herein is a review, our first since last December.

In this report, I highlight the charts. Because there are so many, I’ve attempted to minimize the verbiage. I talk too much. The charts really speak for themselves.

The bottom line is that the system remains extremely vulnerable to a decline in Treasury prices that is  coming in xxx (subscribers only). Likewise, the return of optimism in commercial real estate is problematic. The banks are taking no precautions. There’s no sign of recognition of the looming losses.

It means that the entire banking system could be destabilized in xxxxx (subscribers only). The Fed will have to act, massively. History shows that the Fed won’t act in time to prevent a breach of the system. History also shows that the Fed has the power to ultimately make its actions give the appearance of stabilization, leading to the return of animal spirits.

But I don’t know if it will work yet again, and we can at least expect a significant break first. So here’s what I would do (subscribers only).

Now here’s a review of the banking indicator charts.

Subscribers, click here to download the complete report.

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