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When The Fed Doesn’t Want Us To Know How Bad It Is

Lee Adler

This is what it does. It stops publishing good data, and either substitutes no data, or shitty data.

I rely on the Fed’s weekly data in my research. I want to know what’s going on as close to real time as possible. It’s simple. As traders, we need current data, or as close to current as possible.

The Fed’s new format H6 money supply release is utterly useless. They stopped weekly publication.  As of February 23, the report now includes only monthly averages, and is released only on the 4th Tuesday of the month for the preceding month. So current data, as the average for January, is effectively Jan 15.  This is virtually useless.

When the Fed doesn’t want you to know what’s going on in near real time, this is what it does.

Fortunately, there’s a perfectly good workaround.

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Rally Is Set to Accelerate if These Benchmarks Trigger

Lee Adler

Last week I wrote that the 6 month cycle low setup was forming. Was this rally the beginning of the up phase? While we don’t have 6 month cycle indicator confirmation yet, my best guess is that it was the beginning of the upturn in the 6 month and 10-12 month cycles. And there are signs of potential acceleration. This report shows you the levels that would signal another upsurge, along with the targets for the move, and stock charts that look favorably positioned to participate and potentially outperform.

Chart picks did well last week. With a dozen picks last Monday, all on the buy side, the list was well positioned to take advantage of the rally. Including the short sale that was closed with a loss on Monday’s open, the list showed an average gain of 4.7%, assuming 100% cash basis, no margin or options, with an average holding period of 10 calendar days, as of Monday, March 15.

I am adding 4 new picks, all buys, as of Monday’s open.

The screens generated 27 charts with the kinds of signals I look for. 16 of those were buys. One of the sells was an inverse ETF. Therefore 17 of the 27 signals were bullish. This is somewhat less than each day for the previous week, when buys were running 90-95% of the screen results.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s market analysis and outlook, with price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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FREE REPORT – How To Pick Swing Trades

Lee Adler

Originally posted on Capitalstool’s Stool Pigeons Wire, where I do a lot of thinking out loud with a few friends. It’s a means of helping me to process and retain information for posterity. 

Yesterday I posted the raw output of the daily technical screen I run of some 8700 listed NYSE and Nasdaq stonks. I pre filter for a minimum price of 6 bucks and minimum average volume of a million shares per day over the past 4 weeks.  The I apply technical filters looking for short term cycle buy and sell signals near key longer period cycle support ranges. There were 34 results yesterday, all but one on the long side.

28 of those ended with a gain from the opening price. Of course one of the losers was the short. The average gain, including the losers, was 2.2%.

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Treasury’s Bond Market Rescue – Get Ready For the PONT Spread Bulge

Lee Adler

The US Treasury’s attempt to rescue the Treasury market began in mid February. It’s not going well. They’ve managed to stop the hemorrhaging. Prices have stopped falling over the past two weeks. But they haven’t turned the tide.

And that’s the problem. Primary Dealer inventories accumulated since last March are way under water. The dealers are the walking dead. If bond prices don’t rally, the Fed will have no choice but to start yield control and infinite QE, and it will need to do it soon.

The Fed must always maintain the appearance that their Primary Dealer strawmen, are alive and functioning as market makers as always. There’s no alternative. This month, the Fed and US Treasury have begun colluding to prime the pump, and they’re about to aim a firehose of liquidity at the problem.

Click here to download the report.

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Gold Is Bottoming

Lee Adler

Short term indications say that the bottom is in. Intermediate indicators say, “Whoa, not so fast!” But they’re close. Here’s what to look for that will tell you, yep, that’s it!

Subscribers, click here to download report.

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!  

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Time for a Stock Market Six Month Cycle Low

Lee Adler

The all important 6 month and 10-12 month cycles are coming into the idealized time window for a low. Whether last week was it is doubtful at the moment. Indicators on cycles all the way down to 4 weeks are not yet on buy signals. 4 week cycle indicators are on the cusp. This report shows you where things stand and what needs to happen to trigger the next big move.

Last week the swing trade chart pick list showed an average gain of 1.2% on an average holding period of 10 calendar days. Unfortunately, one pick was an absolute disaster, crushing the list average. 8 picks were stopped out. 4 remain. One will be closed as of Monday’s open.

Technical screens of 8700 listed issues generated 79 charts with swing trade signals based on Friday’s close. 74 of those were buy signals. Only 5 were sell signals. After visual review of those 79 charts, I have selected 10 additions to the swing trade chart pick list.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s market analysis and outlook, with price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Infinite QE Is Coming Despite Skyrocketing Economic Growth

Lee Adler

Last month, I headlined this report, “We Don’t Need No Effin’ Stimmy.” That’s even more true now. Withholding tax collections are skyrocketing. It’s good news for the economy, but terrible news for the financial markets.

We are only days away from Infinite QE.

Here’s how we know, and why it won’t be bullish this time.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Available at this link for legacy Treasury subscribers.

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days!

Act on real-time reality!

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This Week Will Tell If The Bear is Really Coming Out of Hibernation

Lee Adler

Last week’s selloff did less damage than it may have felt like. The drop stopped in the area of 3 crossing uptrend lines, ranging in length from short term to long term. Here’s what would tell us whether the uptrend is still in force, or signal that something evil this way comes.

I have added 8 new stocks to the swing trade chart pick list, including 2 shorts.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s weekly swing trade chart picks with Lee Adler’s Technical Trader, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, for a broad audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Here’s The Evidence That The US Treasury is Bailing Out Stricken Primary Dealers

Lee Adler

The bear market in Treasuries that started in August devolved into an outright crash last week. Meanwhile, evidence shows that cash in Primary Dealer accounts has exploded to the highest level in history, with the biggest weekly increase in history. There’s also circumstantial evidence that that cash came directly from US Treasury, away from the publicly visible means that we already saw last week.

We are not surprised there’s a crisis. You and I have been watching the situation deteriorate for months. My first guess was that the trouble would start when the 10 year yield crossed 0.8%, That was premature. It was just a preliminary. Then I guessed it would be 1%. Sure enough, within a few weeks after crossing that level, things deteriorated rapidly into last week’s climax.

While the Fed sat on its hands, saying, “Nothing to see here, all is well,” the US Treasury sent in the cavalry. As I covered in the bulletins I sent you over the past week, the Treasury has announced $160 billion in T-bill paydowns. These put cash directly into the accounts of those who hold the expiring bills. This includes dealers, banks, and big investment firms of all types.

Two of those paydowns, totaling $96 billion settled on February 23 and 25. The Treasury, no doubt working with the Fed, absolutely wants the crash in bond prices to reverse. They know damn well that the stability of the system is at stake here. I believe that we have passed the point of no return. They must get Treasury prices back up, or else.

The Treasury will almost certainly continue these cash injections. They still have plenty of money left to do it. It is still sitting on $1.38 trillion in cash.

But oddly, dealer cash accounts rose by more, and Treasury cash fell by more, than what we can account for with these paydowns, and the other things we know about. Here’s the evidence, the implications of it, and a strategy to potentially profit from the coming crisis.

The facts, figures, outlook, and strategy are reserved for subscribers. Click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber yet?

Get this report and access to all past and future reports risk free for 90 days! 

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