Lee AdlerGold has reached trend resistance and 10-12 month cycle momentum is at the level where it peaked last year. Here’s what to expect, along with a few mining picks. Dig it!
What happens this week could tell us whether we’re in a bull or bear market.
As of 4:15 AM ET on Monday, virtually all of Thursday’s market gain has been wiped out. The S&P futures were trading at 2742, which would put the S&P cash index back below the centerline of the trend channel. Bears would have a foothold, but it’s where Monday finishes that matters, not where it starts.
Here are the critical parameters and levels you need to know to be positioned correctly.
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Federal tax collections are collapsing but the US Treasury now has $827 billion in cash in its bank account at the Fed. This is double the previous highest level ever. This money has all come via debt sales over the past week.
The Fed funded every single dollar of that expansion through its purchases of the Treasury debt. The Fed used Primary Dealers as middle men. The dealers collected a nice skim and the Fed monetized the debt, while being able to claim that it didn’t. But this is money that did not exist two weeks ago. Now it does.
This has frightening implications. Here’s why, and what you should do about it.
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This short term trendline is the magic 8 ball for gold’s outlook.
Treasury issuance will go through the roof over the next 5 days while the Fed has decided to cut back its support. That’s a bad combination.
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Macro liquidity measures have absolutely gone through the roof, blown the lid off, set off a tsunami, as US government spending skyrockets to the moon and worlds beyond. US bank deposits aren’t just soaring, they are exploding. These deposits are backed mostly by US Treasury paper, future claims on American taxpayers. These claims for which there’s no reasonable expectation of repayment, other than with severely depreciated dollars. Your stocks may soar, and they may still be worthless.
As the stock market began to rebound, one indicator shows the banks started buying shit like crazy. Like the South Park’s Kyle, the kid who always believed in Mr. Hankey the Christmas Poo, the banks believe in Mr. Powell.
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Futures in the pre-market signal an end to the crash. Here’s what’s needed to maintain that and a few trade suggestions to take advantage.
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It worked well in theory and in practice for a dozen years. But at what is likely to be the most important juncture in our lives, if not in modern history, this indicator failed to warn us. Here’s why that’s terrifying.
We also take a look at the foreign central bank issue and tell why that’s also frightening.
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$321 Billion
That’s how much cash the Fed will pump into Primary Dealer accounts this week. Guess how much new Treasury issuance there will be over the same period. If you guessed $321 billion, you would be all but correct. It’s $328 billion.
That’s right. The Fed is buying all of the COVID19 rescue financing. It’s inventing imaginary money to pay Primary Dealers for that new supply. The Fed is printing the money to pay for the economic bailout.
And it’s not stabilizing the financial markets. Here’s why, and what it means.
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When the margin man came collecting on other stuff, gold got dumped. Once he left, gold came right back. What does it mean for the long haul?
Plus a few mining picks with low risk entries and good upside potential.
