We knew that Not QE would fall well shy of Treasury issuance in February, and that that would be a problem for the markets.
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And there’s no reason to conclude that the uptrend is broken…
Yet.
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The February supply increase caused the bond rally to stop in its tracks. But that will change in March.
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The question is what kind of roll it is. This report tells you how to tell.
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The overnight market got hit with more Coronabear virus worries. It gave the dealers another opportunity to load up their long inventories. You know what happens next.
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Update- A few minor corrections.
Federal revenues soared in January. Spending soared more. A lot more. Despite all that stimulus, the tax data suggests that the US economy is just stumbling along.
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Gold remains rangebound, but it’s building up to something big, probably after April.
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The market held at support and immediately rebounded to the top of the trading range and a bit more last week. But trend resistance lines around 3350 were not violated. A failure to penetrate that area would leave the market vulnerable to a decline back to the bottom of the range around 3215.
I have suggested a trade that would profit hugely from that scenario, if it plays out, of course.
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The pause in the growth of the Fed’s balance sheet over the past 6 weeks isn’t what the pundits are telling you. Some are saying that it’s evidence that the Fed is not doing QE. They’re either gaslighting, or clueless. But we know what it is, and we know what happens now.
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Lee Adler