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Here’s Why Lower Treasury Supply Ahead is Bullish or Super Bullish

Lee Adler

Treasury supply is scheduled to moderate over the next 3 months but there will still be moments of pressure on the markets. How the new government treats the debt ceiling reimposition on January 2 is a wild card. If it treats the debt ceiling as inviolable, then it will pay down T-bills for a few months until it runs out of cash. Those paydowns would be bullish. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

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3-2-1 Liftoff

Lee Adler

The election lit the fuse for the market to return to the correct 6 month cycle path after signs of a premature top. We weren’t fooled. We had rightfully questioned those signs and had seen that short term cycle upturns were due. Now it looks like they’re headed a few percent higher. Here’s exactly how much and when to expect it. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

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THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Don’t Be Misled By October Tax Collections Collapse

Lee Adler

Federal withholding tax collections stalled in October. The jobs report mirrored the tax collections for a change. Non-subscribers, click here for the rest of the story.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

According to economists, external factors were to blame for the slowdown. For once, I won’t quibble. These included the 2 hurricanes that pounded Florida and the Southeast, and the Boeing strike. That strike will continue to impact year to year comps for as long as it lasts. Hopefully, there will be no more hurricanes. Non-subscribers, click here for the rest of the story.

10/4/24 If revenue continues this red-hot growth, it’s even possible that the November TBAC forecast will show at least a small reduction in expected Treasury supply. That’s something to keep in mind with the 10-year Treasury Yield breaking its 6-month downtrend today. This is a shift toward greater bearishness that I think is reasonable, but that could change come early November if the Treasury shocks the market with a supply reduction. Non-subscribers, click here for the rest of the story.

That outlook came to pass, with a small reduction in expected supply for the next 3 months. I will consider that in greater depth along with a detailed supply schedule estimate in a report to follow in a few days. The biggest wildcard, however, is the re-imposition of the debt ceiling on January 2. If past debt ceiling episodes are any guide, the Treasury xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxx. Those paydowns are normally a xxxxxxxxxxx influence. That would start in January. More on that in the next report. Non-subscribers, click here for the rest of the story.

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Treading Water

Lee Adler

Current screens yielded 433 short-term buys and 229 short-term sells. Rangebound whipsaws continue to dominate the action. After applying long term trend structure and intermediate term filters, there were 41 buys and 23 sells. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

To view the list and charts of open picks, Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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Old Gold Uptrend Could Get Smoked

Lee Adler

Gold has been in trending mode. That may be coming to an end  Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

I’m pulling some miner picks off the list this week.

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Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gate keeper are blocking Liquiditytrader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!” THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Major Inflection Point

Lee Adler

As Americans make the decision of what kind of government they want, the stock market also faces a major decision this week. Indications are mixed in all time frames. We await a clear signal. Here’s what we’re looking at as deciders.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Cycles – Short-term cycle lows are due xxxxxxx xxxxxxx and projections have xxxxxxxx xxxxxx. But the up phases in 6-month and 10-12 month cycles are in question. Any weakness this week would xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx . By extension, if those cycles xxxxxx xxxxx xxxxxxx , that would suggest xxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx  in longer cycles as well. An extension of the rally this week could xxxxxx xxxxx xxx.

Cycle Screening Measures – The aggregate indicator set up a potentially higher short-term low on Friday. If the market rallies Monday, then this would tend to support a xxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx. But the intermediate pattern has turned xxxxxxxxxx, with xxxxxxx  highs and xxxxxxx lows. Likewise, the 6-month cycle numbers are solidly on the xxxx side. Barring a xxxxxxxx xxxxx, these numbers suggest an xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx. That, in turn, would suggest impending xxxxxx xxxxxxxx in longer cycles.

Third Rail – The market setup up a new short-term downtrend. A down day on Monday would confirm that trend. Conversely, a weekly close above xxxx would break it and keep the uptrend intact. That would keep the measured move target of xxxx still in view.

Long-Term Weekly Chart – A weekly close below xxxx would suggest a possible major top. Conversely, holding above that would allow for the likelihood of xxxx around year end or January.

Monthly Chart – 10/28/24 The market is approaching its upper channel bound at xxxx, now, rising to around xxxx in November and xxxx in December.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Primary Dealer Crisis Now, Crisis Later

Lee Adler

Primary Dealers were wrong about the Treasury market in September, and it has cost them. They reached a small net long position in their hedged bond accounts just as the bond market was topping out in price terms. Since then, bonds have gotten crushed and yields have soared. The dealers aren’t net short enough to profit.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

We had recognized the potential for a turn in the last report on dealer positions. 9/11/24- Technically Treasuries are near an important inflection point on the charts. Repo shows extended leverage among dealers. They are slightly short overall, which isn’t bullish for the big picture. They are leveraged to the hilt and they’re taking hits.

There’s no information to suggest that the young downtrend in bond prices and uptrend in yields will reverse anytime soon. A bullish turn may need to await the reimposition of the debt ceiling in early January of next year. That’s because if the Treasury follows past practice, when the debt ceiling is imposed, the Treasury will pay down T-bills. That puts cash back into dealer and investor accounts, enabling them to absorb Treasury coupon supply, and to buy stocks at the margin.

But until then, there doesn’t appear to be a catalyst in this data to cause a reversal in the bearish environment for bonds. I had worried about that being a catalyst for contagion into stocks, and we may have gotten our first dose of that today (October 31) with the S&P 500 dropping 108 points.

It looks as though the period from now until the beginning of 2025 will be a time of xxxxxx xxxxxx. We had a xxx xxxxx xxxxxx today. This suggests that it’s time to xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx. I will look for those setups and report on them as they arise in the swing trade stock screens.

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KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Picking a Few Nickels With Steamroller Still Coming

Lee Adler

Current screens yielded 464 short-term buys and 459 short-term sells. Rangebound whipsaws continue to dominate the action. After applying long term trend structure and intermediate term filters, there were 70 buys and 29 sells. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Last week I wrote that, “I’m not interested in buys at this late stage of the cycle, especially in view of the warning signs in the liquidity measures.” So much for that. After reviewing the charts I decided to try and pick up a few nickels in front of the steamroller. I added 5 charts on the buy side. I liked one short. Non-subscribers click here for access.

9 picks were closed last week and I’ll remove 1 more as of Tuesday’s opening price. I am letting the rest of the existing picks ride, with added or adjusted stops in some cases. I assume risk management through small position sizes and diversification. Your approach may differ. Non-subscribers click here for access.

As of October 28 closing prices, including open picks and those closed last week, the list had an average gain of 5.2% down from +5.3% the previous week, on an average holding period of 30 calendar days, up from an average of 25 days.  Picks closed in September had an average gain of 1.6% on an average holding period of 20 calendar days.  Picks closed so far in October had an average gain of +2 % on an average holding period of 27 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

To view the list and charts of open picks, Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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Market Broke for Second Wind

Lee Adler

Cycle screening data turned negative on the xxxxxxxx term. However, the sell indications look premature for the xxxxxxxx cycle. Broad market indicators are not yet at that level of negativity. Therefore, I’m on the alert for a second wind to the six-month cycle off the expected short-term low due xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Cycles – Short-term cycle lows are due xxxx xxx xxx, and the timing looks premature for a xxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxxx. The 13-week cycle is a xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx however. Its xxxxxx phase could extend into xxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

With the coming election, this will be less about cycles and more about the news cycle and unpredictable, random kneejerk reactions. If we do get a sharp drop in the short-term, I would expect a xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx in the 6-month cycle before xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxcomplete. This would be typically around xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures – These numbers turned deeply negative. The aggregate reached a level consistent with a xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx, but the pattern and other measures suggest intermediate term xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx. The problem here is that the xxxx indications look premature for the 6-month cycle. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail – xxxx and xxxxx are the support levels to watch this week. Breaking those could indicate short-term trend change. If neither is broken, then the uptrend remains intact. Resistance is at xxxx and xxxxx. If neither is cleared, a xxxxxx xxxxxxxx is likely to develop between xxxxx and xxxxx. The xxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx would signal the next significant move. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long-Term Weekly Chart – A weekly close below xxxxxx would suggest a xxxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx. 18-26 month cycle indicators are in very interesting positions here. A xxxxxx xxxxxxx this level would suggest a xxxxxxx xxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – The market is approaching its upper channel bound at xxxx, now, rising to around xxxx in November and xxxx in December. Non subscribers click here to access.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Gold Approaches Its Long Term Target

Lee Adler

Gold’s run hit trend resistance last week. The longer cycles remain in trending mode. 9-12 month cycle channel resistance projects to xxxx over the next week. The only current projection points to xxxx, which is also the measured move target of the 9 year high base breakout in 2020. There’s a second target above that, but first we need to see how it acts at the first one.  The first sign of even a potential reversal would be a daily close below xxxx.   Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

There are 10 mining stocks on the swing trade pick list, with an average gain of 13.7% and average holding period of 19 calendar days. Gotta know when to hold and when to fold.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gate keeper are blocking Liquiditytrader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!” THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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