Lee AdlerThe market and economy are always fundamentally on a dual track driven by money. Currently, Treasury debt driven money creation has stretched this dynamic, pushing P/E valuations to an extreme 31x, and the ratios of stock prices to money measures to unprecedented extremes as well.
The market retraced into clustered support but preserved its broader uptrend. Multiple intermediate cycles slipped into down phases, although none have broken long-term rising channels. Short-term cycles remain out of sync and imply continued churning. Early-week action is pivotal because several indicators sit directly on inflection points where failure would trigger deeper declines, while a modest continuation of Friday’s rebound could generate short-term buy signals.
Here are the support and resistance levels, cycle projections, and indicators to watch.
Subscribers: Download the full report here Given the market action this week, and the fact that the list has been poorly positioned, I am accelerating…
There’s no basis here yet for turning bullish again. The apparent 13-week cycle upturn last week was a false start, but a low is due xxxxxxx. Short term cycles are now opposed, which is an indication of churning, not a move up.
The FINRA margin ratios show that speculative activity in margin accounts has reached historic extremes. Margin debt typically grows with market value, yet the ratios of margin debt to both cash-account and margin-account free credit now reveal conditions far beyond normal bull market behavior.
Subscribers: Download the full report here All of those buy side picks last week produced half a crop of losers, but performance for the month…
The market pulled back but kept its larger advance intact. Several cycles weakened, yet none have broken their rising structure. Short-term noise continues, and the main risk levels remain clearly defined. Here are the support and resistance levels, cycle projections, and indicators to watch.
The price has broken shorter term channel projections and a 9-12-month cycle wave centerline. But it is holding near that line. This report tells what to look for next for additional signs of trouble.
This report documents how the Treasury–repo complex has replaced the Federal Reserve as the central engine of money creation. Since the July 2025 debt-ceiling increase, Treasury issuance, hedge-fund basis trades, and private repo financing have merged into a self-reinforcing liquidity loop that is sustaining the bull market while pushing systemic leverage and investor sentiment to and even beyond critical extremes.
The market briefly broke down against unified cycle up phases last week but held support and stabilized. Long-term and intermediate-term trends remain intact, though short-term signals are mixed.
The screening algorithms produced another week of solid, but widely diverging performance last week. The methodology continues turning up a good number of winners, but still too many losers, and I am working on methods to reduce the less clear setups on the list.
Withholding tax data continued to show strong nominal gains in October with modest real growth. However, soaring federal spending widened the deficit again, which means growing Treasury supply to come. Tariff revenue gains have been offset by weaker corporate taxes, and much higher spending. Heavy Treasury issuance is sustained by repo funding, leaving markets reliant on artificial liquidity.
The system is still working, but fragile. Risks are growing. The 10 year Treasury yield is set to provide a key signal.