Lee AdlerThe market is still riding a powerful meltup, and short and intermediate-term cycle projections are pointing even higher than they were last week. The Moody’s downgrade has triggered a pullback this morning, but the selloff must follow through to break trend. Otherwise, the index remains on course for potential exhaustion targets above xxxx—even as the Cycle Wave Composite and long-term structures warn that this remains a topping process.
This report outlines the dangerous game now unfolding: artificial liquidity abundance from Treasury debt limit management policy, masking the structural change just ahead.
The S&P 500 continued its sharp rally, bolstered by April’s massive Treasury paydowns. The surge has driven prices into upper channel resistances across short, intermediate, and long-term cycle frameworks. The rally remains intact, but multiple cycle indicators suggest the risk of reversal is rising. Here’s what to look for.
As we get into the heart of baseball season, I’ve been in a slump, finding it difficult to catch up with the fastballs that the market has been tossing. This week, I saw only one pitch that I liked enough to take a swing. It was a buy in an out of favor sector, energy. I chose not to swing at buy signals that have already been on a run. Having been late on the first strike last month, now is not the time to become impatient and chase.
Gold’s trading range could engender a dangerous complacency.
The Treasury is burning through cash at a rate that assures destruction by mid summer. Once the TGA hits that level, the debt ceiling must be lifted—or the U.S. government will default. This is the moment I refer to as DOAD: Do A Deal or Die.
Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the full report. Last week’s short term cycle projections of 5550-5700 have been reached. All major cycles remain…
Subscribers, click here to download the report. April’s tax data shows slowing revenue growth, stable trends in key categories, and strong tariff growth. But the…
Subscribers: Download the full report here I remain cautious about adding picks in the environment where the market is highly susceptible to news response with…
Subscribers, click here to download the report. There were more signs of top formation this week. The report looks at short term downside targets and…
Short-term cycle highs are due soon and we have specific cycle projections along with key resistance and support levels. Failure to clear resistance now would trigger moves to or through support.
Treasury auction demand looks strong — but it’s an illusion. Primary Dealers are faking demand at an unprecedented scale, hiding a collapse in real investment appetite. This Special Report by Lee Adler shows exactly how deep the rot runs.