The countdown to a U.S. liquidity cliff is accelerating. This report lays out the critical data and underlying forces pushing markets toward that cliff—seemingly with no awareness or care. Many will go over. We’ll be prepared to stop short.
Here’s the data, the charts, and the analysis guiding us through the weeks ahead.
This week, the list will tilt heavily to the short side. We’ll soon find out soon if that is not a good idea.
Cycle pressures are building toward short-term peak windows beginning in xxxxxxx xxxxx. Yet the long-term cycle structure has turned bullish.
Short-term cycle tops are due now and cycle projections were reached but there’s a clear trigger price for a parabolic blowoff to higher highs. This report tells what the trigger point is, and the likely targets on key time horizons. Also, we track our miner swing trade picks, now up an average of 19.6% on average 16 day holding period.
Withholding tax collections rose year-over-year as of June 2, but the underlying trend has been weakening since December. Despite a short-term rebound, the muted bounce points to recession risk, especially given disruptions from tariffs.
May was a month of underperformance but June is off to a positive start. As of the close on June 3, the average gain of stocks on the list was 3.6% with an average holding period of 18 calendar days Buy signals predominated over the past week, but this looks like a setup for a final stage rally, with higher than usual risk.
The Treasury’s aggressive T-bill paydowns have acted as synthetic QE, injecting liquidity into the financial system and fueling a powerful stock market rally since April. This has all been foreseeable, and has played out as forecast. The Treasury General Account (TGA) is now declining rapidly, and that will lead to big problems.
A critical test is underway: if the market clears xxxxx xxxxx, projections as high as xxxx would still be viable. A failure at xxxx, however, would open the door to reversal across multiple time frames. The models xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xx key thresholds. Traders should be alert for confirmation either way.
Top formation is due xxxx xxxxxx on short-term cycles. The intermediate uptrend is still intact, and will remain so provided that a pullback holds above xxxx. More fireworks look likely through the summer, with a xxxxxx xxxxx high expected in the xxxx xxxxx time frame. 4 mining picks added to the chart pick list last week got off to a good start.
The markets are playing Tariff Whack a Mole while the cycle model runs in the background, drowned out by all the market noise. The markets are thin, and the tariff news pops up randomly and repeatedly to move prices a long way in an instant.
Primary Dealers are pulling back from Treasury absorption — not by choice, but by constraint. With inventories falling despite relentless coupon issuance, the data confirms what recent auctions have already hinted: dealers are maxed out.
This report unpacks what the May 21 breakout in yields really signals—and why the next phase of Treasury supply could bring more than just higher rates.
Another Presidential tariff twist triggered a sharp rally in Europe on Memorial Day. So far, it doesn’t change any of the conclusions in this report, which was drafted before the rally. We must become accustomed to moves driven by increasingly frequent external noise, sometimes pro-cyclical and sometimes counter, and fostered by an increasingly thin market. This move appears countercyclical relative to cycles up to 13 weeks, and within a topping process of the 6-month and longer cycles. The resistance levels cited in the report would need to be broken to signal a material change in the short-term outlook.
Lee Adler