Lee AdlerThe list will be 100% short this week. There are 3 new picks, all shorts.
The S&P 500 has broken out into a meltup phase with a massive V-bottom base breakout targeting xxxx if sustained. Short-term cycles align for xxxx xxxx through xxxx xxxx, with 6-month cycle projections reaching xxxx. However, narrow breadth and weak cycle screening data suggest caution, as a few large-cap stocks drive gains while underlying breadth and momentum remains weak.
Here are the specifics on what you need to know and to look for.
The US is approaching a liquidity cliff when the government runs out of cash and floods the Treasury market with a tsunami of supply. Unlike previous episodes, there’s no emergency backup fund. The politics is heating up, but it won’t change the timeline estimate.
Here’s the data, the charts, and the analysis leading to the timeline estimate and guiding us through the weeks ahead.
The Technical Trader Market Update will be posted on Tuesday again this week. I hope to return to regular weekend or Monday morning postings next…
The chart of combined foreign central bank holdings and RRPs with the Fed continues to plunge in opposition to the US market rallies. The charts show that foreigners continue run from the US.
Monday’s rebound gave the appearance of strength, but this week’s report shows why it may be a trap. Trend channels have fractured, cycle indicators are not confirming yet, and breadth momentum remains deeply negative. The rally lacks confirmation—and history shows that moves like this rarely stick.
Good morning-Due to a disruption in my travel itinerary today–my train was canceled while I was waiting at the station–I will be unable to post…
Short-term cycles had been due to top, but instead have merely flattened or entered trending mode. Intermediate indicators are still in up phases with a 10-12 month cycle projection well above the recent high. The US attack on Iran now looks pro cyclical on those time frames.
The countdown to a U.S. liquidity cliff is narrowing. Treasury cash is still being drained aggressively, and while estimated tax inflows on June 15 provided a brief lift, outflows have already resumed. The illusion of calm may persist through xxx xxxxxx, but underlying conditions suggest a serious funding shock will emerge by xxxxxxxx xx or sooner.
Here’s the data, the charts, and the analysis guiding us through the weeks ahead.
The list will be 100% short this week. There are 3 new picks, all shorts.
Short-term cycle indicators have turned down, and key index channels have broken, pointing to increased market vulnerability. But long-term projections continue to rise, and 1 and 2-year cycle up phases remain intact for now. This report shows the particulars including cycle based price projections, time windows, conventional measured move targets and specific support and resistance targets and triggers.
Short-term cycles have entered trending mode instead of topping out, as was due. This report has updated projections for the extension.