Lee AdlerShort-term cycles had been due to top, but instead have merely flattened or entered trending mode. Intermediate indicators are still in up phases with a 10-12 month cycle projection well above the recent high. The US attack on Iran now looks pro cyclical on those time frames.
The countdown to a U.S. liquidity cliff is narrowing. Treasury cash is still being drained aggressively, and while estimated tax inflows on June 15 provided a brief lift, outflows have already resumed. The illusion of calm may persist through xxx xxxxxx, but underlying conditions suggest a serious funding shock will emerge by xxxxxxxx xx or sooner.
Here’s the data, the charts, and the analysis guiding us through the weeks ahead.
The list will be 100% short this week. There are 3 new picks, all shorts.
Short-term cycle indicators have turned down, and key index channels have broken, pointing to increased market vulnerability. But long-term projections continue to rise, and 1 and 2-year cycle up phases remain intact for now. This report shows the particulars including cycle based price projections, time windows, conventional measured move targets and specific support and resistance targets and triggers.
Short-term cycles have entered trending mode instead of topping out, as was due. This report has updated projections for the extension.
The countdown to a U.S. liquidity cliff is accelerating. This report lays out the critical data and underlying forces pushing markets toward that cliff—seemingly with no awareness or care. Many will go over. We’ll be prepared to stop short.
Here’s the data, the charts, and the analysis guiding us through the weeks ahead.
This week, the list will tilt heavily to the short side. We’ll soon find out soon if that is not a good idea.
Cycle pressures are building toward short-term peak windows beginning in xxxxxxx xxxxx. Yet the long-term cycle structure has turned bullish.
Short-term cycle tops are due now and cycle projections were reached but there’s a clear trigger price for a parabolic blowoff to higher highs. This report tells what the trigger point is, and the likely targets on key time horizons. Also, we track our miner swing trade picks, now up an average of 19.6% on average 16 day holding period.
Withholding tax collections rose year-over-year as of June 2, but the underlying trend has been weakening since December. Despite a short-term rebound, the muted bounce points to recession risk, especially given disruptions from tariffs.
May was a month of underperformance but June is off to a positive start. As of the close on June 3, the average gain of stocks on the list was 3.6% with an average holding period of 18 calendar days Buy signals predominated over the past week, but this looks like a setup for a final stage rally, with higher than usual risk.
The Treasury’s aggressive T-bill paydowns have acted as synthetic QE, injecting liquidity into the financial system and fueling a powerful stock market rally since April. This has all been foreseeable, and has played out as forecast. The Treasury General Account (TGA) is now declining rapidly, and that will lead to big problems.