Lee AdlerThe market remains in established uptrend channels. Longer-term cycles continue to project higher, with a projection of xxxx on the 10-12 month cycle, while short-term corrections look mild. Breadth is narrow, but no decisive breakdown signals are evident.
The only cycle with a current projection is the 13-week pointing to a high of xxxx, due within the current few weeks. The price would need a daily close below xxxx by the end of next week to break the uptrend. Cycle channel resistance will be approximately xxxxx at the end of next week. Miner swing trade picks remain a hold, with an average gain of 31% on an average holding period of 7 weeks.
Picks open as of the September 19 close, showed an average gain of 12%, down from 12.4% the previous week, with an average holding period of 27 calendar days. 8 of the 10 picks had gains.
Trade Selections and Adjustments
4 new picks, 3 longs and 1 short
Closing 1 pick, adding 1 limit sell
9 prior picks will remain open this week
3 with stops
The S&P 500 remains within powerful uptrend structures, with cycle projections aligned higher into year-end. Key resistance levels are near, but momentum and long-term cycle signals continue to favor the upside. The 10-12 month cycle projects to xxxx in xxxxxxx.
All cycles have entered or appear about to enter corrective down phases. Trend support is in the xxxx range for the week ahead. That needs to hold to keep the uptrend intact. If it holds, then a run to xxxx could follow. If it breaks, then a drop to support indicated around xxxx would be likely. But it is the long term charts that suggest that the greatest risk is building. There are no changes to miner swing trade chart picks, now showing average gains of 16% over 6 weeks.
Macro Liquidity Indicators and extreme leverage continue to suggest that the stock market is in a topping phase.
Long term and intermediate term buy setups were again predominant. Picks open as of the September 12 close, showed an average gain of 12.4%, down from 13.5% the previous week, with an average holding period of 28 calendar days. 7 of the 8 had gains. This week 2 new buys and 1 short will be added to the list. There are no new deletions.
The S&P 500 is testing critical resistance near 6600, with regression channels, long-term cycles, and short-term structures all pointing to potential acceleration toward XXXX into Xxxxx and XXXX into Xxxxxx.
Projections point to the xxxx range, which is where wave channel boundaries extend over the next month. Indicator patterns suggest an extended price, but not one ready to roll over yet. Miner swing picks show an average gain of 14.1% on an average holding period of 33 calendar days. There are no changes to the list this week.
Long term and intermediate term buy setups were again predominant, while sell side setups increased. Picks open as of the September 8 close, showed an average gain of 13.5%, up from 4.8% the previous week, with an average holding period of 31 calendar days. 5 of the 6 had gains.
The S&P 500 continues to grind higher, with resistance zones just overhead and cycle structures still pointing to the possibility of a blowoff toward xxxx. Cycle interactions suggest rangebound conditions in the short run, but the longer-term backdrop remains biased to the upside. This report includes the quarterly update of long term cycle projections. They don’t look good for bears.
Withholding tax collections are up 8.5% year-over-year, part of a persistent pattern this year. That’s actual real time data, not statistical guesswork. It directly contradicts the mainstream story of slowing jobs and moderate inflation.
This report shows you the real data, and shows why the consensus is wrong about everything, and suggests the best investment strategy for dealing with the false narrative.