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Lee Adler’s

Lee Adler’s

Author: Lee Adler

Fragility Persists, Withholding Tax Collections Steady, but Deficit Explodes Again in October

Lee Adler

Withholding tax data continued to show strong nominal gains in October with modest real growth. However, soaring federal spending widened the deficit again, which means growing Treasury supply to come. Tariff revenue gains have been offset by weaker corporate taxes, and much higher spending. Heavy Treasury issuance is sustained by repo funding, leaving markets reliant on artificial liquidity.

The system is still working, but fragile. Risks are growing. The 10 year Treasury yield is set to provide a key signal.

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Swing Trade Screen Picks and Results – Strong Results, Including Shorts

Lee Adler

The screening algorithms produced another week of solid performance last week. But that was yesterday. Our focus now turns to the week ahead, to preserve and grow gains, and reduce the number of losing trades. The methodology is turning up a good number of winners, but still too many losers, and I have been remiss in adding too many iffy setups to the list. The screens are doing their job. The screener needs to do better.

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Uptrend Holds While Breadth Weakens Beneath the Surface

Lee Adler

U.S. equities continue to hold within strong uptrend channels across all time frames, yet the advance is showing signs of internal strain. The S&P 500 remains in a steady short-term uptrend after new highs in late October, but cycle-screen data reveal that participation has narrowed sharply. The indexes stay firm, while many individual stocks have slipped into short-term down phases.

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Treasury and Repo: The New Money Printer Reaches Its Breaking Point

Lee Adler

This report examines the mechanics of the ongoing liquidity-driven bull market and its growing systemic fragility. It argues that the U.S. Treasury—not the Federal Reserve—is now the de facto “money printer,” with repo financing transforming government debt issuance directly into spendable liquidity. The cycle of Treasury issuance, hedge-fund basis trades, and repo leverage has fueled both economic expansion and asset price inflation, pushing valuations toward bubble-era extremes.

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Swing Trade Screen Picks and Results – Back to the Buy Side

Lee Adler

During the week ended Friday, October 17, out of 1899 stocks meeting institutional price and volume criteria, the screens produced the following results :

Picks closed since September 9 showed an average gain of 7.6% on an average holding period of 29 calendar days. Currently open picks have an average gain of 3% on an average holding period of 22 calendar days. This compares with a gain of 2.2% in the S&P 500 since September 9. Past performance does not indicate future results. 

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Gold Trader Update: I Was Around The Last Time Gold Did This

Lee Adler

I have been around long enough to have lived and traded through a parabolic extreme move like this in 1979-80. Do I believe that this is like that? Yes. It did not end well, but tops, even parabolic blowoff tops, take a few months to complete. The cycle projection on the 9-12 month cycle is doable, provided that any pullback holds above xxxx-xxxx. Any pullback below that would probably reduce the final target of this move.

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Swing Trade Screen Picks and Results – New Shorts, High Uncertainty, Split Entry

Lee Adler

The bullish fever broke on Friday, and today’s list of new additions to the list shows the effect. However, Friday’s break was driven by a statement made by President Trump. Picks closed since September 9, or open as of the October 10 close, showed an average gain of 8.5%, which is a drop from the 11.6% gain the previous week. This compares with a gain of 0.5% in the S&P 500 since September 9. The average holding period was 32 calendar days. Table below.

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