Lee AdlerThe market pulled back but kept its larger advance intact. Several cycles weakened, yet none have broken their rising structure. Short-term noise continues, and the main risk levels remain clearly defined. Here are the support and resistance levels, cycle projections, and indicators to watch.
The price has broken shorter term channel projections and a 9-12-month cycle wave centerline. But it is holding near that line. This report tells what to look for next for additional signs of trouble.
This report documents how the Treasury–repo complex has replaced the Federal Reserve as the central engine of money creation. Since the July 2025 debt-ceiling increase, Treasury issuance, hedge-fund basis trades, and private repo financing have merged into a self-reinforcing liquidity loop that is sustaining the bull market while pushing systemic leverage and investor sentiment to and even beyond critical extremes.
The market briefly broke down against unified cycle up phases last week but held support and stabilized. Long-term and intermediate-term trends remain intact, though short-term signals are mixed.
The screening algorithms produced another week of solid, but widely diverging performance last week. The methodology continues turning up a good number of winners, but still too many losers, and I am working on methods to reduce the less clear setups on the list.
Withholding tax data continued to show strong nominal gains in October with modest real growth. However, soaring federal spending widened the deficit again, which means growing Treasury supply to come. Tariff revenue gains have been offset by weaker corporate taxes, and much higher spending. Heavy Treasury issuance is sustained by repo funding, leaving markets reliant on artificial liquidity.
The system is still working, but fragile. Risks are growing. The 10 year Treasury yield is set to provide a key signal.
The price has broken shorter term channel projections and a 9-12-month cycle wave centerline. But it is holding near that line. This report tells what to look for next for additional signs of trouble.
The screening algorithms produced another week of solid performance last week. But that was yesterday. Our focus now turns to the week ahead, to preserve and grow gains, and reduce the number of losing trades. The methodology is turning up a good number of winners, but still too many losers, and I have been remiss in adding too many iffy setups to the list. The screens are doing their job. The screener needs to do better.
U.S. equities continue to hold within strong uptrend channels across all time frames, yet the advance is showing signs of internal strain. The S&P 500 remains in a steady short-term uptrend after new highs in late October, but cycle-screen data reveal that participation has narrowed sharply. The indexes stay firm, while many individual stocks have slipped into short-term down phases.
This report examines the mechanics of the ongoing liquidity-driven bull market and its growing systemic fragility. It argues that the U.S. Treasury—not the Federal Reserve—is now the de facto “money printer,” with repo financing transforming government debt issuance directly into spendable liquidity. The cycle of Treasury issuance, hedge-fund basis trades, and repo leverage has fueled both economic expansion and asset price inflation, pushing valuations toward bubble-era extremes.
The smash last week and this morning broke cycle channels up to xx xxxxx duration. However, the xx xxxxx cycle up phase remains intact for now. That would not prevent a continued sharp correction. Gold would need a close below xxxx to form a clear top pattern that would suggest the end of the xx xxxxx cycle up phase.
U.S. equities remain in a fully engaged up-phase across multiple time frames, with all major cycles now synchronized to the upside. The S&P 500’s breakout to new highs confirms continuation of the rally first signaled in mid-October, while short-term and intermediate cycle structures indicate further potential into Xxxxxxxx and Xxxxxxxxx.