I’m having cataract surgery Tuesday afternoon. Since I’ll be out of commission for a few days, I wanted to give a quick overview of the Treasury supply outlook for the next 3 months.
February is normally a month of big supply because taxpayers expecting big refunds are motivated to file early, resulting in heavy cash demands on the Treasury. That normally means more debt issuance, with resulting pressure on bond and stock prices.
The market is in a rising wedge pushing against resistance, requiring a move above xxxx for an upside breakout or a close below xxxx to break the uptrend. While short-term technical bias remains bullish, indicators show a lack of thrust, placing the market in a high-risk window as it nears potential long-term cycle tops.
Here are the support and resistance levels, cycle projections, and indicators to watch to determine the direction of the next big move.
The list has an average gain 7.2% on an average holding period of 22 calendar days, including open picks and those closed out last week.
Short term cycles are due to consolidate while intermediate cycles remain in up phases. Projections now point to xxxx in the short run, and xxxx in Q1 of 2026. The price would need to end this week below xxxx, or below xxxx at year end to break the uptrend.
The latest budget and liquidity data suggest a generally stable backdrop, yet several underlying indicators point to potential early-stage warnings that merit close attention.
The list has an average gain 7.2% on an average holding period of 22 calendar days, including open picks and those closed out last week.
The market is in a rising wedge pushing against resistance, requiring a move above xxxx for an upside breakout or a close below xxxx to break the uptrend. While short-term technical bias remains bullish, indicators show a lack of thrust, placing the market in a high-risk window as it nears potential long-term cycle tops.
Here are the support and resistance levels, cycle projections, and indicators to watch to determine the direction of the next big move.
Short term cycles are due to consolidate while intermediate cycles remain in up phases. Projections now point to xxxx in the short run, and xxxx in Q1 of 2026. The price would need to end this week below xxxx, or below xxxx at year end to break the uptrend.
The U.S. financial system is locked in a high-stakes feedback loop where massive Treasury debt issuance is driving stock prices to historic extremes. Fueled by a trillions sized leverage trap in the repo market, this “perpetual motion machine” of asset inflation has pushed market risk indicators to levels rarely seen in history.
The market is in a rising wedge pushing against resistance, requiring a move above xxxx for an upside breakout or a close below xxxx to break the uptrend. While short-term technical bias remains bullish, indicators show a lack of thrust, placing the market in a high-risk window as it nears potential long-term cycle tops.
Here are the support and resistance levels, cycle projections, and indicators to watch to determine the direction of the next big move.
The list has an average gain 7.2% on an average holding period of 22 calendar days, including open picks and those closed out last week.
Subscribers: Download the full report here The list has an average gain 8.8% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days, including open picks…
Lee Adler