Lee AdlerShort term cycles have turned up, with projections pointing to xxxx-xxxx between xxxxxx and xxxxxx. A daily close below xxxx would break the short-term uptrend, and suggest that a big top is forming.
The Fed’s ~$50–55B/month in outright T-bill and T-bill buys to replace MBS prepayments has been sufficient to offset the withdrawal of the hedge fund Treasury basis trade. Hedge funds have cut short Treasury futures positions by 600,000 contracts since September in the 10 year Treasury futures alone. So far the Fed is winning the battle to hold the line.
The list currently has an average gain 2.7% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days, including open picks and those closed out last week. 6 new picks will be added this week and 5 will be closed.
The market remains within a trading range, showing signs of a concurrent down phase across multiple cycles but without downward thrust, suggesting that xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx 2-3 xxxxxx months.
Short term cycles are due to consolidate while intermediate cycles remain in up phases. Projections now point to xxxx in the short run, and xxxx in Q1 of 2026. The price would need to end this week below xxxx, or below xxxx at year end to break the uptrend.
I’m having cataract surgery Tuesday afternoon. Since I’ll be out of commission for a few days, I wanted to give a quick overview of the Treasury supply outlook for the next 3 months.
February is normally a month of big supply because taxpayers expecting big refunds are motivated to file early, resulting in heavy cash demands on the Treasury. That normally means more debt issuance, with resulting pressure on bond and stock prices.
The market is in a rising wedge pushing against resistance, requiring a move above xxxx for an upside breakout or a close below xxxx to break the uptrend. While short-term technical bias remains bullish, indicators show a lack of thrust, placing the market in a high-risk window as it nears potential long-term cycle tops.
Here are the support and resistance levels, cycle projections, and indicators to watch to determine the direction of the next big move.
The list has an average gain 7.2% on an average holding period of 22 calendar days, including open picks and those closed out last week.
Short term cycles are due to consolidate while intermediate cycles remain in up phases. Projections now point to xxxx in the short run, and xxxx in Q1 of 2026. The price would need to end this week below xxxx, or below xxxx at year end to break the uptrend.
The latest budget and liquidity data suggest a generally stable backdrop, yet several underlying indicators point to potential early-stage warnings that merit close attention.
The list has an average gain 7.2% on an average holding period of 22 calendar days, including open picks and those closed out last week.
The market is in a rising wedge pushing against resistance, requiring a move above xxxx for an upside breakout or a close below xxxx to break the uptrend. While short-term technical bias remains bullish, indicators show a lack of thrust, placing the market in a high-risk window as it nears potential long-term cycle tops.
Here are the support and resistance levels, cycle projections, and indicators to watch to determine the direction of the next big move.