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Lee Adler’s

Lee Adler’s

Author: Lee Adler

Technical Trader Weekly – S&P at the Edge – Key Inflection Between Recovery and Breakdown

Lee Adler

Seeing the pre-market rebound this morning, I have to admit this is one of the toughest calls I’ve faced. Did Friday’s Trump-triggered selloff truly break the market—or not? At this point, I can’t say with confidence. Based strictly on Friday’s price and indicator patterns, the uptrend was broken. But today’s early recovery could still repair the damage if it carries just a few points higher from the current 6644 level. As Europe opened around 3 AM NY time, the S&P was already testing 6660—the threshold I identified as critical to re-establish the uptrend.

For now, we wait to see how the session resolves. Ideally, that clarity comes today. 

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Gold Trader Update: We Take Miner Profits as Gold Marks Beginning of the End

Lee Adler

Cycle projections for the 13 week and 9-12 month cycles have been reached. Indicators suggest the onset of down phases in shorter cycles, but it’s not clear that these will turn down in absolute slope. It would appear to mark only the beginning of top formation. We are taking profits in miner swing picks as gains have averaged 43% over an average holding period of 2 months. 

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Tariffs Boost Revenue but Crush Profits – No Real Growth Beneath the Surface

Lee Adler

September’s Treasury data shows headline revenue strength masking a deeper slowdown. Withholding taxes remain in their normal cyclical range, but real growth is flat once wage inflation is factored in. Tariffs are propping up receipts even as they squeeze corporate profits and the deficit widens. Repo financing and basis trades continue to feed the rally. Consider that the bull market is supported by artificial financial engineering, not fundamental economic growth, or even conventional central bank money printing.  

This report shows you the real data, and shows why the consensus tends to be wrong, and suggests the best investment strategy for dealing with the narrative versus the hidden facts.  

Want the real-time data that drives Treasury supply and market direction?
Get the full Macro Liquidity series at Liquidity Trader — updated as the numbers come in.

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Swing Trade Screen Picks and Results – Pruning, Protecting Profits, No New Picks

Lee Adler

Picks open as of the October close, or closed last week, showed an average gain of 11.6%, up from 7.5% the previous week, with an average holding period of 30 calendar days, up from 24, the previous week. Past performance does not indicate future results. 

Buy setups were again predominant. Setups are not guarantees. They are valid only when short-term signals follow. Therefore, the next screening layer looks for short-term trigger signals from within the stocks that have met the setup criteria.

On that basis, the results this week are as follows:

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Technical Trader Weekly – Uptrend Remains Firm Across Cycles, with Higher Projections

Lee Adler

Market averages continue to respect their long- and intermediate-term uptrend channels, with momentum and cycle indicators still aligned xxxxxxx. There is no evidence yet of a completed top or imminent reversal. Momentum across major cycles supports continuation of the equity uptrend into xxxx xxxx, with targets extending toward xxxx on SPX.

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Gold Trader Update: Gold Blows

Lee Adler

Gold has exceeded long term trend limits. In the short run, the 4 week cycle has reached its projection, but the 13 week cycle still points to xxxx, ideally due by xxxxxxx xx. Closing below xxxx next week would be needed to break the uptrend. The gain in miner swing trades is now 44.7% over an average holding period of 8 weeks. With the charts now extended, I have added trailing stop recommendations. 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks and Results – Maintaining Gains, 4 New Picks, Mostly Buys

Lee Adler

Buy setups were again predominant despite last week’s pullback. I am adding 1 new buy side pick this week and adding stops to 4 existing picks, plus a limit sell on another. Current performance is an average gain of 7.5% on an average holding period of 24 calendar days. Past performance does not indicate future results. 

Table of picks and charts in subscriber report.

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Gold Trader Update: Trending Continues At Historical Extremes

Lee Adler

The only cycle with a current projection is the 13-week pointing to a high of xxxx, due within the current few weeks. The price would need a daily close below xxxx by the end of next week to break the uptrend.  Cycle channel resistance will be approximately xxxxx at the end of next week. Miner swing trade picks remain a hold, with an average gain of 31% on an average holding period of 7 weeks. 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks and Results – Maintaining Gains, 4 New Picks, Mostly Buys

Lee Adler

Picks open as of the September 19 close, showed an average gain of 12%, down from 12.4% the previous week, with an average holding period of 27 calendar days. 8 of the 10 picks had gains.

Trade Selections and Adjustments

4 new picks, 3 longs and 1 short
Closing 1 pick, adding 1 limit sell
9 prior picks will remain open this week
3 with stops

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