Lee AdlerAll cycles have entered or appear about to enter corrective down phases. Trend support is in the xxxx range for the week ahead. That needs to hold to keep the uptrend intact. If it holds, then a run to xxxx could follow. If it breaks, then a drop to support indicated around xxxx would be likely. But it is the long term charts that suggest that the greatest risk is building. There are no changes to miner swing trade chart picks, now showing average gains of 16% over 6 weeks.
Macro Liquidity Indicators and extreme leverage continue to suggest that the stock market is in a topping phase.
Long term and intermediate term buy setups were again predominant. Picks open as of the September 12 close, showed an average gain of 12.4%, down from 13.5% the previous week, with an average holding period of 28 calendar days. 7 of the 8 had gains. This week 2 new buys and 1 short will be added to the list. There are no new deletions.
The S&P 500 is testing critical resistance near 6600, with regression channels, long-term cycles, and short-term structures all pointing to potential acceleration toward XXXX into Xxxxx and XXXX into Xxxxxx.
Projections point to the xxxx range, which is where wave channel boundaries extend over the next month. Indicator patterns suggest an extended price, but not one ready to roll over yet. Miner swing picks show an average gain of 14.1% on an average holding period of 33 calendar days. There are no changes to the list this week.
Long term and intermediate term buy setups were again predominant, while sell side setups increased. Picks open as of the September 8 close, showed an average gain of 13.5%, up from 4.8% the previous week, with an average holding period of 31 calendar days. 5 of the 6 had gains.
The S&P 500 continues to grind higher, with resistance zones just overhead and cycle structures still pointing to the possibility of a blowoff toward xxxx. Cycle interactions suggest rangebound conditions in the short run, but the longer-term backdrop remains biased to the upside. This report includes the quarterly update of long term cycle projections. They don’t look good for bears.
Withholding tax collections are up 8.5% year-over-year, part of a persistent pattern this year. That’s actual real time data, not statistical guesswork. It directly contradicts the mainstream story of slowing jobs and moderate inflation.
This report shows you the real data, and shows why the consensus is wrong about everything, and suggests the best investment strategy for dealing with the false narrative.
Gold’s price is moving toward a test of projected intermediate term wave channel resistance in the xxxx range. Projections point to xxxx in September- October. The indicator patterns suggest the potential for an extended run.
The S&P is testing critical support at 6400 this morning as cycles remain mixed. Long-term signals are still bullish, but cyclical breadth weakness and narrow leadership continued the warning last week that the uptrend was narrow and fragile.
Long term and intermediate term buy setups were again predominant, and about 40% of those met short-term trigger criteria. There were three times as many buy setups as sells. Only 3 of the sell side setups triggered short-term sell signals.
Primary dealers are propping up record Treasury issuance with no cash cushion left. Every new purchase is repo-financed. Hedge funds are pressing shorts. Net exposures look balanced, but leverage is surging toward the danger zone. Stability here is an illusion — and when it cracks, it will happen fast.