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Last week’s short picks all whipsawed. The method suffers in a rangebound market with high frequency reversals, but still beats the market over the average holding period.
There were no good setups from the screen output for the week. Many picks were closed last week, and more will be dropped today. During the week ended Friday, November 28, out of 1899 stocks meeting institutional price and volume criteria, the screens produced the following results :
Cumulative lists of longer-term setups:
- 222 resting big gainers up from 214 last week,
- and 309 sleeping dogs, up from 308.
- 133 breakout charts last 7 months- no change
- 110 breakdown charts last 7 months – no change
Weekly screens of cycle positions.
- 18 met strict major or intermediate trend buy setup criteria. 5 triggered
- 70 met strict major or intermediate trend sell setup criteria. None triggered.
Tactics
For actionable trades, I visually review charts that triggered short term signals from the prescreened structural candidates. There was nothing to review on the sell side. Of the 5 buy candidates, the setups were rangebound and ambiguous. None were set up well enough to put on the list.
I also review the existing issues on the list for whether to close, hold, or add or adjust stops. Here are the results of my final review for this week.
Trade Selections and Adjustments
- 0 new picks.
- 9 existing picks hit stops or were previously designated to be covered or sold last week (See table)
- 6 prior short picks will be considered covered at today’s open. 8 will remain open of which 3 are short and 5 are buys
- 6 picks with stops. 2 will ride without stops.
Performance Recap – Of last week’s picks all but one were shorts, and all whipsawed, with patterns shifting to bullish. Most of these will be closed. They caused the drawdown of most of the profits earned in November. Closed picks in November had an average gain of 2.7% with an average holding period of 17 calendar days. Open picks average a gain of 2.2% on an average holding period of 14 calendar days.