Lee AdlerThere will be a severe shortage of QE next week to match up with the end of month Treasury issuance. Bears have a shot there,…
The Fed’s balance sheet resumed its growth in August after a bit of a stall in July when dealers paid off Fed repos. That program…
The forecast has changed. It’s less bearish, but it’s still bearish. Here’s why. Subscribers, click here to download the report Not a subscriber yet? Get…
By now, you’ve heard all about the $2.8 trillion budget deficit so far this year. Old news. With more pandemic spending on hold, the monthly…
No news isn’t no news. The Primary Dealers are in the same posture they’ve been in. They’re still bullish on bonds and that’s an extremely…
Macro liqudity been bullish since early July. That was no secret. We were fully informed and prepared. And it’s no secret that this balance is…
A recovery in withholding tax collections that began in mid June, ended in the last week of July. The one time annual tax windfall is…
Macro liquidity is growing at a historically rapid pace, but much slower than in the second quarter. And there are signs of trouble brewing. Here’s…
Fed QE and Treasury supply remain roughly in balance. The Fed is still funding most, if not all new issuance, either by direct purchase of…
Several banking indicators have exhibited a mild trend of deleveraging that has now persisted over two months. What we don’t know yet is whether it…
The Treasury’s numbers for June were as bad as expected. Early July numbers look good, but it’s a trick. Here’s how we know, and what…
Wall Street media shills have noted that the Fed’s balance sheet has shrunken a bit in recent weeks. Let’s get this out of the way…