Lee AdlerNormalization is dead. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is all she wrote. A little bit of Fed POMO won’t be enough to save the bond…
The trend is your friend, and the Fed has gone soft. And traders know it. But there may be trouble in Primary Dealer Bond Land. Subscribers,…
The Treasury has been pounding the market with supply since the debt ceiling was lifted in early August. Yet stock and bond markets have both…
Withholding taxes soared for most of August, far in excess of indicated jobs growth. But the Treasury hasn’t even started to rebuild its cash account.…
The Treasury and the Fed are colluding to boil the bond investor frogs on a sunny sidewalk. Subscribers, click here to download the report. First…
In July we saw that the market was at a record overbought extreme versus liquidity. I warned then that the bullishness we saw earlier this summer would be short lived. The market has corrected a bit. Now what?
Our purpose here is to examine Federal revenues and spending for any sign that the Fed would have any justification for a policy move. And…
The uptrend is particularly hot in loans to non bank financial institutions. That is composed largely of margin and repo loans. It’s clear that this borrowing has been a prime driver of the rallies in stocks and bonds. Live by leverage, die by leverage.
The data shows that the end is nigh.
The Fed has ended its balance sheet bloodletting. QT is kaput. No more “normalization.” Now abnormal is the norm. But while the Fed will no…
The game is over. The massive liquidity inflows from the US Treasury into dealer accounts that has fueled the stock and bond rallies since March…
Total tax collections rose in July, as did most components, including withholding. If the economy is materially weakening, it’s not showing up in real time…
The Treasury paydown game has ended. A deluge of supply is coming. The Fed has panicked, ending its bloodletting program early, and without warning. And…