The S&P 500 has broken out into a meltup phase with a massive V-bottom base breakout targeting xxxx if sustained. Short-term cycles align for xxxx xxxx through xxxx xxxx, with 6-month cycle projections reaching xxxx. However, narrow breadth and weak cycle screening data suggest caution, as a few large-cap stocks drive gains while underlying breadth and momentum remains weak.
Here are the specifics on what you need to know and to look for.
The Technical Trader Market Update will be posted on Tuesday again this week. I hope to return to regular weekend or Monday morning postings next…
Monday’s rebound gave the appearance of strength, but this week’s report shows why it may be a trap. Trend channels have fractured, cycle indicators are not confirming yet, and breadth momentum remains deeply negative. The rally lacks confirmation—and history shows that moves like this rarely stick.
Good morning-Due to a disruption in my travel itinerary today–my train was canceled while I was waiting at the station–I will be unable to post…
The list will be 100% short this week. There are 3 new picks, all shorts.
Short-term cycle indicators have turned down, and key index channels have broken, pointing to increased market vulnerability. But long-term projections continue to rise, and 1 and 2-year cycle up phases remain intact for now. This report shows the particulars including cycle based price projections, time windows, conventional measured move targets and specific support and resistance targets and triggers.
This week, the list will tilt heavily to the short side. We’ll soon find out soon if that is not a good idea.
Cycle pressures are building toward short-term peak windows beginning in xxxxxxx xxxxx. Yet the long-term cycle structure has turned bullish.
May was a month of underperformance but June is off to a positive start. As of the close on June 3, the average gain of stocks on the list was 3.6% with an average holding period of 18 calendar days Buy signals predominated over the past week, but this looks like a setup for a final stage rally, with higher than usual risk.
A critical test is underway: if the market clears xxxxx xxxxx, projections as high as xxxx would still be viable. A failure at xxxx, however, would open the door to reversal across multiple time frames. The models xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xx key thresholds. Traders should be alert for confirmation either way.
The markets are playing Tariff Whack a Mole while the cycle model runs in the background, drowned out by all the market noise. The markets are thin, and the tariff news pops up randomly and repeatedly to move prices a long way in an instant.
Another Presidential tariff twist triggered a sharp rally in Europe on Memorial Day. So far, it doesn’t change any of the conclusions in this report, which was drafted before the rally. We must become accustomed to moves driven by increasingly frequent external noise, sometimes pro-cyclical and sometimes counter, and fostered by an increasingly thin market. This move appears countercyclical relative to cycles up to 13 weeks, and within a topping process of the 6-month and longer cycles. The resistance levels cited in the report would need to be broken to signal a material change in the short-term outlook.
Lee Adler