Menu Close

Lee Adler’s

Lee Adler’s

Menu

Category: 1 – Liquidity Trader- Money Trends

How Fed and Treasury policy, Primary Dealers, real time Federal tax collections, foreign central banks, US banking system, and other factors that affect market liquidity, interact to drive the financial markets. Focus on trend direction of US bonds and stocks. Resulting market strategy and tactical ideas. 4-5 in depth reports each month. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Federal Budget Deficit Hit A Trillion A Month in April

Lee Adler

The Federal deficit hit $1 trillion in April. That’s a cool 1,500% increase year to year. That’s for one month.

This is based on the April 30 Daily Treasury Statement month to date totals. It is an estimate based on my simple subtraction of outlays from revenues. It is not official, and the official number may differ when the Monthly Treasury Statement is released on May 13.

Still, a trillion, is a trillion. And the final, official number should be in this ballpark. This is an increase of $941 billion from the April 2019 deficit. Keep in mind that back in the “good old days, before the 2017 tax cut and spending increase, April typically saw a surplus. So even before the pandemic, these numbers were bad.

Obviously, this blowout is due to the Pandemic Pandemonium Panic Relief Programs spending. But it’s also partly due to the plunge in revenue, and embedded increases in regular budgetary spending.

Here are the current horrible numbers, along with the immediate outlook, and what it means for stocks and bonds.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Get this report and access to past reports.  Read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days!

Go to the post

Look Out! The Fed is Tight Again!

Lee Adler

The Fed just posted how much help it will give the market next week and son of a gun! It’s cutting again. The implications of this are yooge! Apparently Jaysus saves not! At least not the stock market. Doesn’t he care? Is this ritual sacrifice?

Here’s what you need to do now to protect yourself from Jaysus Powell’s Revenge.

Subscribers, click here to download the report

Not a subscriber yet?

90 Days Risk Free If You Join Now!

Get this report and access to all past and future reports risk free for 90 days! 

Go to the post

The Fed Flattens The Curve – Stocks Follow

Lee Adler

Today’s the day. The Fed announces its next plan. You may have already seen it by the time you read this.

But really. What difference does it make? The Fed has trashed its plan without notice 3 times in the past year and a half.

In the past 2 months, it has had no plan at all. It just responds willy-nilly to whatever happens in the news. My god! The Fed bailed out Carnival Cruise Lines. You know we’re in trouble when the Fed bails out Carnival. The blatant cronyism of the plutocrat class is breathtaking. And the sheep just yawn, placated by a few crumbs thrown their way.

So Jerry and the JayJays will sing yet a new song today. Maybe they’ll stick with the new tune for a few weeks or months. Maybe they won’t. We just have to keep tracking what they do and watching the market response.

Here’s what you need to know.

Subscribers, click here to download the report

Not a subscriber yet?

90 Days Risk Free If You Join Now!

Get this report and access to all past and future reports risk free for 90 days! 

Go to the post

The Fed is the Ventilinflator

Lee Adler

Ever resolute, the Fed kept pumping the cash into Primary Dealer accounts. It kept at it until, as I calculated elsewhere, it had pumped in about $800 billion more than the dealers, and indeed the entire world, needed to absorb the flood of Treasury supply that was hammering it. That happened by the middle of April.

It was enough for the dealers to get back to their fun business of acquiring inventories of stocks, marking them up, triggering short squeezes, and convincing their herds of institutional sheep customers to follow the shorts and dive back into the market with whatever cash they had raised on the way down.

It worked, as we all know. Stocks have recovered around 55% of what they lost in the crash.

But the Fed has started to do the tighten up. Here’s what you need to know.

Subscribers, click here to download the report

Not a subscriber yet?

90 Days Risk Free If You Join Now!

Get this report and access to all past and future reports risk free for 90 days! 

Go to the post

Fed Liquidity Tank About to Run Dry

Lee Adler

The Fed has taken its foot off the gas pedal. We’ve been watching this for a couple of weeks now. Crunch time is almost here. Be afraid. Because the Fed doesn’t have a clue what to do next.

Subscribers, click here to download the report

Not a subscriber yet?

90 Days Risk Free If You Join Now!

Get this report and access to all past and future reports risk free for 90 days! 

Go to the post

What Happens When Fed Makes Moral Hazard Permanent and Structural

Lee Adler

The Fed’s massive bailout of Primary Dealers and its alphabet soup loan programs for all other big financial players, have now made moral hazard permanent and structural. Why worry about risk when you know that the Fed will always take you off the hook when the shit hits the fan?

How can we know how this will play out? How can we know if these loans can ever be repaid? Will they be repaid through inflation, perhaps hyperinflation? Or will the borrowers simply default if the markets and economy recover too slowly?

Then who will be on the hook for the Fed’s guarantees when the Fed must assume the losses? Who pays? Taxpayers? Depositors? Everyone, again through massive inflation?

Of course, there’s always a chance that everything turns out just fine. The world returns to normal in a few months. The economy bounces back, and all the trillions lent by the Fed gets repaid timely, with no financial price to be paid.

We don’t know, but there will be telltale signs in the weeks ahead that will give us a heads up.

Subscribers, click here to download the report

Not a subscriber yet?

90 Days Risk Free If You Join Now!

Get this report and access to all past and future reports risk free for 90 days! 

Go to the post

Expecting The Worst and Getting It

Lee Adler

We expected the worst, and we’ve gotten it. But that does not mean that things will get better. The revenue trends had been strong. Now they’re awful, and spending is unimaginable. How can this be sustained? In this report, I’ll show you the data, and discuss how to handle what’s to come.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Get this report and access to past reports.  Read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days!

Go to the post

Fed Takes Its Foot Off the Gas

Lee Adler

I warned about it last week when the Fed’s POMO schedule first showed a reduced purchase rate. The Fed is taking its foot off the gas pedal. Here’s what that means for your stocks and bonds.

Subscribers, click here to download the report

Not a subscriber yet?

90 Days Risk Free If You Join Now!

Get this report and access to all past reports risk free for 90 days! 

Go to the post

Fed Monetizes While the US Burns

Lee Adler

Federal tax collections are collapsing but the US Treasury now has $827 billion in cash in its bank account at the Fed. This is double the previous highest level ever. This money has all come via debt sales over the past week.

The Fed funded every single dollar of that expansion through its purchases of the Treasury debt. The Fed used Primary Dealers as middle men. The dealers collected a nice skim and the Fed monetized the debt, while being able to claim that it didn’t. But this is money that did not exist two weeks ago. Now it does.

This has frightening implications. Here’s why, and what you should do about it.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Get this report and access to past reports.  Read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days!

Go to the post

Beware! Treasury Is About to CRUSH the Market

Lee Adler

Treasury issuance will go through the roof over the next 5 days while the Fed has decided to cut back its support. That’s a bad combination.

Subscribers, click here to download the report

Not a subscriber yet?

90 Days Risk Free If You Join Now!

Get this report and access to all past reports risk free for 90 days! 

Go to the post