Withholding tax collections are soaring. But despite that and the massive stimulus of skyrocketing government outlays and ever widening deficits, the ‘conomy is only so-so. Here’s why, what it means for liquidity and the markets. And of course, what you should do about it.
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I just discovered today that Liquidity Traders email system had malfunctioned and had stopped sending notifications to you last week. All posts were available here onsite, but you may have missed one over the last few days if you have not visited the site.
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Lee
With the light supply and the Fed money putting the wind at their backs, Primary Dealers got a gift on top of that. Coronavirus. The panic that induced has driven money out of stocks and into bonds. Just what they needed.
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Dealers cut back their fixed income inventories ever so slightly over the past month. They also increased their hedges, but again, slightly. They are still near historical record net long positions, and still carry historic levels of leverage.
With a bulge in Treasury supply on the way, is this where the bond market might trigger them throwing up their hands and saying WTF, despite the Fed?
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Also, I have republished Thursday’s Treasury market update due to a faulty posting with links to an earlier report. Those errors have have now been corrected. I apologize for the delay!
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Supply and demand conditions for stocks and bonds have been as good as it gets over the past month. We can thank the Fed’s Not QE program, and light Treasury supply for that.
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It ain’t rocket science. The Fed drives liquidity and stock prices are the first order effect because that’s how monetary policy transmission is designed. These charts show you the way!
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Federal revenues softened in December. That could be just a blip, or it could be the first signs of a looming recession. It’s bullish if it is, and bullish if it isn’t. Here’s why everything is bullish.
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The Fed has monetized 99 percent of the Federal Debt since it started Not QE. That’s been bullish. Here’s what to look for and how to position, going forward.
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There are growing signs in the banking system that the Fed will lose control, and this won’t end well.
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Federal tax collections were a bit softer in December than in recent months, but overall were in the same growth path as throughout the past year. That signals that the US economy isn’t doing much differently than the pace it has been for the past several years. Here’s why that’s still bad news, and what you should do about it.
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Lee Adler