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Category: 1 – Liquidity Trader- Money Trends

How Fed and Treasury policy, Primary Dealers, real time Federal tax collections, foreign central banks, US banking system, and other factors that affect market liquidity, interact to drive the financial markets. Focus on trend direction of US bonds and stocks. Resulting market strategy and tactical ideas. 4-5 in depth reports each month. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Surprise Surprise, The Fed is Buying Whatever The Treasury Is Selling

Lee Adler

The Fed is taking up all new Treasury issuance, dollar for dollar.  Must be a coincidence.

Uh…

No…

Here’s what it means and what to do about it.

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US Government Defecates – Fed May Lose Control

Lee Adler

The US Treasury daily tax data showed weak revenue and soaring outlays in October. The deficit is soaring, but the Fed is monetizing every penny of it and then some, leaving the Primary Dealers with plenty of cash.

Here’s why this is like the Fed piloting a Boeing 737 Max 800. It is exactly the same thing.

No. I mean it.

Seriously.

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Bond Market Is a Ticking Bomb Despite Fed QE New

Lee Adler

With QE New the Fed has the tools and the power to push money rates down, and it is succeeding. But it’s not succeeding in the bond market. The crisis is worsening there.  Here’s what’s going on, and what to look for.

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QE New Balloons Fed Balance Sheet

Lee Adler

It’s official. QE New has reversed 5 months of previous Fed balance sheet normalization. Here’s what the “new normal” means for your investments. It might not be what you think.

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Sudden Collapse in Demand for Treasuries Forced Fed to Massively Intervene

Lee Adler

Private demand for US Treasury securities collapsed in September, forcing the Fed to first finance purchases, and then to buy Treasuries outright. The market is broke and broken, and that has yooge implications for you as an investor or trader.

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How Much QE Will Be Enough For Exploding Deficit Defecation?

Lee Adler

The US Treasury daily tax data suggests that the US economy is at least slowing. That means already yooge deficits will grow. Treasury supply will grow with it. How much QE will be enough to keep asset prices inflated?

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Treasury Supply Recedes, But Here’s Why The New Normal Is Scary

Lee Adler

Net new Treasury supply is receding to the “new normal,” averaging around $100 billion per month. We know we have a problem when a hundred bill is “normal.”

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The New Fed QE Is Here- It’s Permanent, But Is It Bullish?

Lee Adler

The Fed’s new TOMO has already hit a quarter trillion. It may not be QE in name, but it is in fact. And make no mistake. Regardless of what they call it, it will become official and permanent. Here’s a look back on how we knew it was coming and a look ahead on what to expect from it for the markets.

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The US Economy No Longer Matters – It’s The Debt, Stupid!

Lee Adler

The game has changed radically in the past two weeks, so it does not matter one iota what the economy is doing. It’s the debt, Stupid. Or the stupid debt. Or the stupid economists, central bankers, and Wall Street crowd. Actually, it’s all of the above. Here’s why, and what  to do about it.

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Money Rates Explode (No Surprise To Us) – Fed Must Print or Die

Lee Adler

I have been warning for months that once the debt ceiling was lifted the money markets would tighten dramatically. It’s happening. Here’s a rundown of the banking indicators, how they led up to this, what they’re telling us now, and my recommendation on what to do about it.

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