Lee AdlerMay was a month of underperformance but June is off to a positive start. As of the close on June 3, the average gain of stocks on the list was 3.6% with an average holding period of 18 calendar days Buy signals predominated over the past week, but this looks like a setup for a final stage rally, with higher than usual risk.
A critical test is underway: if the market clears xxxxx xxxxx, projections as high as xxxx would still be viable. A failure at xxxx, however, would open the door to reversal across multiple time frames. The models xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xx key thresholds. Traders should be alert for confirmation either way.
The markets are playing Tariff Whack a Mole while the cycle model runs in the background, drowned out by all the market noise. The markets are thin, and the tariff news pops up randomly and repeatedly to move prices a long way in an instant.
Another Presidential tariff twist triggered a sharp rally in Europe on Memorial Day. So far, it doesn’t change any of the conclusions in this report, which was drafted before the rally. We must become accustomed to moves driven by increasingly frequent external noise, sometimes pro-cyclical and sometimes counter, and fostered by an increasingly thin market. This move appears countercyclical relative to cycles up to 13 weeks, and within a topping process of the 6-month and longer cycles. The resistance levels cited in the report would need to be broken to signal a material change in the short-term outlook.
This rally has been a grinder. Since it began, setups have been harder to trust, in a market driven more by headlines than structure. I’ve been too cautious, as short-term waves reversed with near unprecedented ferocity. But the charts are starting to look more normal. This week, I found five shorts I liked and 3 longs. This is still cycle-based with rigorous questioning of setups, while finding more that I’m comfortable adding to the list.
The market is still riding a powerful meltup, and short and intermediate-term cycle projections are pointing even higher than they were last week. The Moody’s downgrade has triggered a pullback this morning, but the selloff must follow through to break trend. Otherwise, the index remains on course for potential exhaustion targets above xxxx—even as the Cycle Wave Composite and long-term structures warn that this remains a topping process.
The S&P 500 continued its sharp rally, bolstered by April’s massive Treasury paydowns. The surge has driven prices into upper channel resistances across short, intermediate, and long-term cycle frameworks. The rally remains intact, but multiple cycle indicators suggest the risk of reversal is rising. Here’s what to look for.
As we get into the heart of baseball season, I’ve been in a slump, finding it difficult to catch up with the fastballs that the market has been tossing. This week, I saw only one pitch that I liked enough to take a swing. It was a buy in an out of favor sector, energy. I chose not to swing at buy signals that have already been on a run. Having been late on the first strike last month, now is not the time to become impatient and chase.
Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the full report. Last week’s short term cycle projections of 5550-5700 have been reached. All major cycles remain…
Subscribers: Download the full report here I remain cautious about adding picks in the environment where the market is highly susceptible to news response with…
Short-term cycle highs are due soon and we have specific cycle projections along with key resistance and support levels. Failure to clear resistance now would trigger moves to or through support.
Subscribers: Download the full report here Liquidity Trader’s long/short swing trade selection screens are now posted. The algorithm is designed to filter out noise driven…