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The market is at a pivotal point, again. Market action early this week should signal whether recent gains lead to a sustained uptrend or a deeper pullback. Here’s what to look for.
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Our proprietary cycle screens revealed 162 charts that met minimum long term ideal buy criteria last week versus 84 the prior week. There were 128 that met ideal long term sell criteria versus 453 the previous week. This was from a universe of approximately 1500 listed stocks that met minimum price and volume criteria. Non-subscribers, 📩 Subscribe Now and start receiving actionable insights instantly.
This test has a two-week lookback period. Therefore, it has a built-in lag for identifying major and intermediate turning points. That imposes a penalty at such times. Last week looks like one of those times.
126 charts met ideal intermediate term buy side criteria last week. 105 met intermediate term sell side criteria. This test also has a two-week lookback period and therefore also a built-in short-term lag.
Among the major and intermediate buy setups, 12 short term buys triggered and 11 sells triggered.
On visual review I liked 5 of the buys as shown on the table below, but there are two that will only be added if they hit a limit price during the week. I chose one short. Other than as noted, all picks will be added to the list based on the average of Tuesday’s opening and closing prices. Two of the picks will also be added with protective stop prices included.
Meanwhile, last week did not go well as all new picks were shorts. The list had an average loss of 0.1% with an average holding period of 10 calendar days.
Three picks hit stop prices during the week. I’ll drop one more at the open on Tuesday, and add stops to the rest.
Are the markets on the brink of a major shift? The current analysis suggests the S&P 500 is hovering around a pivotal support level, and the implications could be a major shock for investors. Will short selling become a viable strategy for portfolio protection and profit?
Key highlights include:
Our full report dives deep into these market-moving dynamics, using advanced cycle and technical analysis to map out the most likely paths, with specific triggers to alert you.
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As the market nears completion of a major top pattern, here’s what it means for the intermediate and longer term outlook.
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Oh, Dem Golden Slippers!
This week’s Technical Trader Weekly Chart Picks provides a comprehensive look at market trends, offering actionable chart picks for swing trades. Here’s a preview of what our proprietary technical cycle screens uncovered:
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The S&P 500 is testing key resistance at xxxx. A breakout could signal a short-term uptrend, while failure to hold would complete a head-and-shoulders top pattern, with a conventional measured move target at xxxx. Non subscribers can click here to access a risk free trial.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: The Dow is challenging its downtrend channel. A close above xxxxxx signals a breakout, while failure risks falling to support near xxxxxx.
Cycle Analysis: Short-Term: Market strength could confirm a xxxxxx xxxxx xxxxx
Indicator Review: Mixed signals. Short-term indicators lean xxxxxxx, but intermediate cycles show xxxx xxxxx. Sustained gains this week are xxxx xxxxx xxxxx.
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Our proprietary cycle screens revealed 161 charts that met minimum long term ideal buy criteria last week, and 309 that met ideal long term sell criteria. This was from a universe of approximately 1500 listed stocks that met minimum price and volume criteria. That’s the third straight week that the tilt was to the sell side on major trend indications, but the margin was smaller than in the two prior weeks.
Of those long-term potential buy setups, 52 also met ideal intermediate term buy side criteria. Of the long-term sells, 138 also met ideal intermediate sell criteria. That margin was smaller than the prior week.
The intermediate buys and sells were screened for having hit corresponding short-term triggers last week. The result was interesting. There were 14 short term buys triggered and 11 sells. Is that the seed of change? I admit to not knowing. The purpose of the screening algo is to identify potential trading opportunities, not to forecast market direction.
On visual review I liked 4 of the buys and just one of the sells (sell short). I’ll add them to the list based on the average of today’s opening and closing prices, with one exception. That is as shown on the table below. That one has a limit price for the week, as shown. If hit, it will be added. If not, it stays off.
Meanwhile, I had already trimmed the list over the holiday weeks, and I’ll be closing another short as of today’s open. I’ve added a stop to the remaining pick. Charts of Open and New Picks To view the list and charts of open picks, Non-subscribers can click here for access.
For the month of December, including the last current open pick and those closed earlier in the month, the average gain was 3.7% on an average holding period of 29 calendar days. For January, we start with almost a completely new list, based on a few algorithm adjustments that I have made to reduce the number of false positives.
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Disclaimer:
All recommendations are theoretical and assume cash-based trading with no margin or options. Use risk management techniques tailored to your investment strategy. For more insights, visit Liquidity Trader.
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Cycles – Intermediate cycles are xxxxxx or trending xxxxxx, while short-term cycles are mixed, driven more by year-end market conditions. Earlier indicators pointed to tops in the x and x-xxxxxx month cycles. Although xxxxx targets have been met, cycle indicators remain xxxx, with ample room for xxxxx lows in the 13-week and 6-month timeframes. Non subscribers can click here to access a risk free trial.
Cycle Screening Measures – Last week’s rebound turned the aggregate measure positive, recovering from a recent low that was near the April bottom. The 29-day moving average (MA) remained flat, sitting just below prior cycle lows, aligning with the 6-month cycle low in May. The cumulative line rose slightly but stayed under the 29-day MA, remaining on an intermediate term xxxx signal. New 6-month cycle indicators shifted to a xxxx signal, suggesting a potential cycle xxxx, but year-end seasonality raises doubt. A clearer picture should emerge in the new year. Non subscribers can click here to access a risk free trial.
Third Rail – The market is in a short term downtrend channel but still aligns with longer-term uptrend channels. Key support lies between xxxx-xxxx. A break below xxxx would be a head-and-shoulders breakdown targeting xxxx. Downtrend resistance ranges from xxxx to xxxx, while upward resistance appears at xxxx and xxxx. Non subscribers can click here to access a risk free trial.
Long-Term Weekly Chart – Updated projections suggest a market top is forming, with recent highs near the projected peak. A significant drop below xxxx would suggest a long-term cycle top. Indicators reflect a maturing bull market, but a market recovery this week could signal continued upward movement, delaying the peak well into next year. Non subscribers can click here to access a risk free trial.
Monthly Chart – The market remains within the center of a narrow uptrend channel. January’s lower boundary is at xxxx, with the upper limit near xxxx. Although momentum is weakening, it remains xxxxxxx, and no xxxx signal has been triggered yet. Non subscribers can click here to access a risk free trial.
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Happy New Year. Here’s a quick update on our chart picks. Non-subscribers can click here for access.
The screens revealed 133 charts that met minimum long term structural buy criteria last week, and 500 that met minimum long term structural sell criteria. That’s two straight weeks that nearly a third of all the stocks that met minimum price and volume criteria were on the sell side. It suggests that there will be more opportunities to sell short in the new year. Non-subscribers can click here for access.
Of those long-term potential buy setups, 132 also met intermediate term buy side minimum criteria. Of the long-term sells, 499 also met intermediate sell criteria. The intermediate buys and sells were screened for corresponding short term triggers. There were 11 short term buys triggered and 41 sells. Non-subscribers can click here for access.
On visual review I liked none of the buys and just one of the sells (sell short). The rest of the sells have already moved and do not have ideal entry setups .Non-subscribers can click here for access.
Meanwhile, 5 picks dropped off the list last week, as shown on the table below.
Including picks closed last week and the one still open at the end of the week, the list had an average gain of 10.1% on average holding period of 30 calendar days. That compares with +7.6% the previous week on an average holding period 31 calendar days. Non-subscribers can click here for access.
I had culled losing positions earlier in the month. As a result, including the last current open pick and those closed earlier in the month, the average gain in December has been 3.7% on an average holding period of 29 calendar days. Non-subscribers can click here for access.
Charts of Open and New Picks To view the list and charts of open picks, Non-subscribers can click here for access.
Disclaimer:
All recommendations are theoretical and assume cash-based trading with no margin or options. Use risk management techniques tailored to your investment strategy. For more insights, visit Liquidity Trader.
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With gratitude for your support, I wish you a Joyeux Noel and Happy New Year from Nice, France!
The screens revealed 33 charts that met minimum long term structural buy criteria last week, and 455 that met minimum long term structural sell criteria. That’s nearly a third of all the stocks that met minimum price and volume criteria. It’s a dramatic change that suggests that there will be more opportunities to sell short in the new year. Just not right now. Non-subscribers can click here for access.
Of those long-term potential buy setups, just 24 met intermediate term buy side minimum criteria. Of the long-term sells, 317 met intermediate sell criteria. The intermediate buys and sells were screened for corresponding short term triggers. There were 3 short term buys triggered and 18 sells. The reason that there were so few short term sells is that most of the damage had already been done. The next round of sell signals after a rebound or consolidation should be good short sales. Non-subscribers can click here for access.
On visual review I liked none of the buys or sells (sell short). The holiday week is always a good time to take a break anyway.
Meanwhile, 11 picks dropped off the list last week, as shown on the table below. I had recommended 3 to be sold as of the open last week. The rest hit my posted stops. I am placing or maintaining stops on all but 1 of the 6 picks that remain open to begin the holiday week. Non-subscribers can click here for access.
Including open picks as of December 20, and those closed last week, the list had an average gain of 7.6% on average holding period of 31 calendar days. That compares with +7.0% the previous week on an average holding period 30 calendar days. Non-subscribers can click here for access.
I had culled losing positions earlier in the month. As a result, for December as a whole, including current open picks and those closed earlier in the month, the average gain has been 3.5% on an average holding period of 26 calendar days. Non-subscribers can click here for access.
This system obviously isn’t perfect. The screens have done a good job of finding winners but also too many that turn bad. I continue to tweak the algorithms with the goal of including checks in the screening process that will recognize setups that will not be profitable. However, sometimes good charts end up breaking bad. 😁 Non-subscribers can click here for access.
Charts of Open and New Picks To view the list and charts of open picks, Non-subscribers can click here for access.
Disclaimer:
All recommendations are theoretical and assume cash-based trading with no margin or options. Use risk management techniques tailored to your investment strategy. For more insights, visit Liquidity Trader.
Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!
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Lee Adler
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