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Weak Trend Status Quo

Lee Adler

This is a narrowly based rally, that shows no sign that a break is imminent. But it is fragile. Hedging would be ….. Non subscribers click here to access.

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Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Here Cometh the Grim Repo Man

Lee Adler

Repo data has been an important part of our liquidity analysis for many years. But the data had shortcomings. It showed only the banking system data, which is not the entire repo market by far. And it was only somewhat timely, offering a weekly snapshot with a 10 day lag. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

I have found something better. It’s daily data on the entire repo market, current through the last business day before yesterday. No surprise, it correlates with the trend of stock prices and even shows evidence of divergences that precede changes of stock market trends. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

The current data through Monday supports the stock market rally, but only up to a point. A negative divergence has developed since January. A breakdown from here could be a bearish signal for stocks. A breakout would be bullish confirmation. They’re not at either point yet, but it’s now week to weak. Pun intended. We’ll keep an eye on it. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

It’s a similar story from the other drivers. There’s enough liquidity to keep the rally going for a bit longer. But the sands of time are falling to the bottom of the hourglass. Long for now, but not for long, looks like the watchword for this market. Tick tock. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

This report illustrates each component of the liquidity data to give you a complete view and deeper understanding of the dynamics that drive market trends so that you can invest and trade with greater confidence. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

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THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Swinging and Missing

Lee Adler

List performance was poor again last week. I’ve been in a slump lately. I’m not seeing pitches well, and my swing timing is a little off.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Trading is a tough game. The pitches that we see are hard and often deceptive. The game has sped up. The season is long. As we age, our vision and reflexes aren’t what they were when we were younger players. I have confidence that by sticking with proven swing mechanics, we’ll eventually start making good contact and hitting home runs again. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Meanwhile, in this week’s games… Non-subscribers click here for access.

Including picks still open at the end of the week plus those stopped out during the week, the list had an average loss of 1% with an average holding period of 13 calendar days. That compares with a loss of 0.6 % with an average holding period of 12 calendar days, for the prior week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Screens of Friday’s closing price charts resulted in 21 stocks meeting preliminary buy side criteria versus 136 on the sell side. That compares with 20 buys and 82 sells the week before. Do I detect a trend? Non-subscribers click here for access.

Next, I counted the signals that were triggered on Friday alone. After applying these trigger filters, just 3 of the preliminary buys qualified on Friday, while 8 of the sells did. Not many, either way. After reviewing the charts, I took the pitches and didn’t swing. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, see table of picks and charts in report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

For picks closed in May, it was a losing month. Picks closed out during the month had an average loss of 0.1% and an average holding period of 22 calendar days.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

For all picks closed out in April the average gain was 15.2% on an average holding period of 34 calendar days. Of those 7 were buys and 4 were shorts.   Non-subscribers click here for access.

Past performance does not suggest future results.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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Last Gasp of a Dying Uptrend

Lee Adler

Cycles still appear to be in gear to the upside in the context of a 10-12 month cycle xxxxxxx with a bit more xxxxxxxxxx.  The 10-12 month cycle still has a projection of xxxx indicating a bit more xxxx before it’s over.  The 13-week cycle projection now points to xxxx, ideally due June xx. A 4-week cycle projection now points to xxxxx, ideally due xxxxxx xxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Dr. Gold Stopped the Bleeding Just in Time

Lee Adler

They stopped the bleeding just in time to prevent an ugly pattern from developing. But the patient isn’t out of the woods yet. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gate keeper are blocking Liquiditytrader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!” THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Had the Plot, But Not the Right Actors

Lee Adler

List performance was poor last week despite being overwhelmingly long, consistent with the market. It might just be a matter of requiring a little patience, or it might be just that time when the market takes back some of what we took from it. Or it might be the precursor to a market reversal. Or pure chance. It happens. I can’t draw any conclusions from this action yet. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Including picks still open at the end of the week plus those stopped out during the week, the list had an average loss of 0.6 % with an average holding period of 12 calendar days. That compares with a gain of 1.3% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days, for the prior week. In other words, treading water. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Screens of Friday’s closing price charts resulted in 20 stocks meeting preliminary buy side criteria versus 82 on the sell side. That compares with 87 buys and 24 sells the week before. That’s a reversal of the recent trend but the numbers are too small to represent a broad market reversal. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Next, I counted the signals that were triggered on Friday alone. After applying these trigger filters, just 5 of the preliminary buys qualified on Friday, while 9 of the sells did. I liked 2 of the buys enough to add to the list. I added one of the sells as a short. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Two picks hit their stop prices last week. Another loser was dropped as of last Monday’s opening price. Dropping those and adding the 3 new ones will leave 12 buys and 1 short on the list for this week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, see table of picks and charts in report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

For picks closed in May, it was a losing month. Picks closed out during the month had an average loss of 0.1% and an average holding period of 22 calendar days.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

For all picks closed out in April the average gain was 15.2% on an average holding period of 34 calendar days. Of those 7 were buys and 4 were shorts.   Non-subscribers click here for access.

Past performance does not suggest future results.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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The Top Must Wait

Lee Adler

The cycle setup is bullish for a few more weeks. That’s consistent with bullish liquidity over the same period. Here are the resistance levels and cycle projections to look for, and when to expect them.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Go to the post

Something Ugly Could This Way Come for Gold

Lee Adler

Today’s selloff creates the potential for the development of an ugly top pattern if… Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gate keeper are blocking Liquiditytrader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!” THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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May Tax Collections Were Super Bullish

Lee Adler

Withholding tax collections boomed in May. Consequently, the US Treasury is flush with cash. This means that T-bill paydowns are likely to hit my previous estimate of $80-100 billion for June. It could be more than that, but the difference shouldn’t be enough to materially impact the market. The current estimates are bullish enough.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

This report gives the details of the May tax windfall, what it means for the market, and how you can use that information in your trading and investment strategy.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Here’s a snip from last month’s summary of the review of April tax collections.   Non-subscribers, click here for access.

5/3/24 This is the second straight month of strong tax revenue. That means less supply. The usual April-May tax bulge cash cow could hang around through June, when the government sees a mini tax collection bulge from June estimated taxes. That could extend the T-bill paydown period into late June or early July before the well runs dry.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

And that, my friends, will be a bullish influence between now and the end of the second quarter.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

As I wrote in this update last month, “Cash doesn’t guarantee a bull stampede, but it means that the gates are open for them to easily run through.”  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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After Growth in the Spring Comes the Harvest

Lee Adler

The Treasury supply issue is still favorable for most of June. The Treasury has already resumed paying down T-bills thanks to a huge cash balance and the prospect of a big wave of estimated tax collections on June 15. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

I now estimate that paydowns should rebuild the Fed’s RRP facility to xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. That should be enough to last until xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. It doesn’t guarantee bullish markets until then, but it’s potential cash flow that will offset ongoing QT until it doesn’t. That should be xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx at the latest. So enjoy the party while it lasts. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Meanwhile the stock market had looked historically overbought versus the level of bank deposits in recent weeks. But it has now blown through that record extreme into a supernova of bullishness. When that finally turns, it should mark the end of this bull run. But we’re not there yet, and there’s no reason to try and anticipate the turn by selling too early. The market will tell us. Meanwhile, I would let xxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

However, the buildup of divergences between liquidity indicators and the direction of asset prices means that when the market finally does give it up, we should believe it. It will be time to sell and sell short, not just wait out the next correction. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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