Treasury’s seasonal June T-bill paydowns, which have cushioned the stock market decline and kept the Treasury market afloat, are ending. The coming supply wave that begins now will be the most dangerous ever.
Every June, tax receipts let Treasury pay down T-bills while holding coupon issuance to its steady, scheduled pace. In 2024 and 2025, that paydown effect kept net new supply low or even at zero, and markets rallied on both occasions. This June, net T-bill paydowns are running far lower than past years pushing total net issuance for the month up and the S&P 500 down.
The supply situation gets much worse, starting now. The inherent danger should frame your strategy and tactics. Here’s why.
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