Published: January 25, 2025
A shift in market sentiment and liquidity dynamics could mark the start of a more turbulent phase for equities. Key indicators like the Stock Price to Bank Deposit Ratio and Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo trends are flashing signals. Is this a momentary pause, or the precursor to broader market shifts?
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Published: January 24, 2025
The balance between liquidity expansion and systemic risks is more precarious than ever. As Treasury operations and repo market trends evolve, so do the risks and opportunities for investors. Are we heading for a sustained rally or a potential correction?
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Futures dropped sharply this morning, reaching a low of 5915 before rebounding to 5980 in the premarket. Volatility is back, with xxxx-xxxx now acting as crucial support or resistance. Here are the key technical levels and indicators to watch, along with outlook and price targets depending on this week’s keys.
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Our proprietary cycle screens revealed 160 charts that met ideal major trend buy setup criteria last week versus 162 the prior week. There were 145 that met ideal major sell criteria versus 128 the previous week. This is from a universe of 1440 listed stocks that met minimum price and volume criteria.This test has a two-week lookback period. Therefore, it has a built-in lag for identifying major and intermediate turning points.
123 charts met ideal intermediate term buy side criteria last week versus 126 the previous week. 113 met intermediate term sell side criteria versus 105 the prior week.
Among the major and intermediate buy setups, 9 short term buys triggered versus 12 the previous week. 42 sells triggered versus 11 the previous week.
On visual review I liked 3 of the buys and 6 of the shorts as shown on the table below. Other than when a limit price is indicated, all picks will be added to the list based on the average of opening and closing prices on Monday.
Last week the list showed an average gain of 4.1% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. Three picks hit stop prices during the week and I posted that one would be covered at last week’s open. The results are included on the chart. I have added stops to the a couple of the remaining picks and am letting others ride for now.
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Indicators are on the cusp of confirming more intermediate term gains.
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This update builds upon the analysis provided in the Liquidity Trader Macro Liquidity Report dated January 24, 2025 incorporating data released by the Federal Reserve on January 24. The original report highlighted the precarious balance between liquidity drivers and systemic risks. This update refines those insights with the most recent data on the Stock Price to Bank Deposit Ratio, Delivery Versus Payment (DVP) Repo trends, and the Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo Program (RRP) slush fund.
This update aligns with the themes of liquidity-driven market risks and shows emerging sentiment and monetary shifts. These shifts suggest that change is likely in the trajectory of equity markets in the months ahead.
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What Does It All Mean for Traders?
From systemic risks in the repo market to speculative leverage driving market sentiment, our in-depth analysis reveals the forces shaping the financial landscape. But timing is critical, and understanding when liquidity trends shift can make all the difference.
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The current market environment reflects a precarious balance between liquidity expansion and underlying systemic risks. Despite the Federal Reserve’s continued quantitative tightening (QT), private money creation through lending and repo markets has kept liquidity flowing, pushing stock prices to historically stretched levels. However, the new political approach to the re-imposition of the federal debt ceiling introduces uncertainties.
This report covers the data and shows you the trends to watch in order to prepare for what’s ahead. A vigilant approach to liquidity signals and fiscal developments will be critical in adapting to potential shifts in market conditions. I will continue to provide that vigilance for you in the months ahead.
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Get exclusive insights into the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average with this week’s Technical Trader Report (subscriber link), where key levels and cycle patterns are shaping market trends. Discover actionable information you won’t find anywhere else:
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The market is at a pivotal point, again. Market action early this week should signal whether recent gains lead to a sustained uptrend or a deeper pullback. Here’s what to look for.
Lee Adler