Lee AdlerThe S&P meltup remains solidly within its uptrend channels with the path of least resistance still pointing higher. But the 13-week cycle is in a down phase, manifesting only as a slowing in momentum, due to bottom around xxxxxx. 6-month cycle new signals have flipped to the sell side for an early warning of an approaching high. The question is when, and at what level.
In this brief update bulletin: The Treasury’s bill issuance just swung $124 billion in a single week versus year-ago. The repo market isn’t keeping pace, and foreign central banks are walking away. The crunch is here.
The unprecedented level of supply will lead to an unprecedented outcome.
The two remaining picks on the list have an average gain of 47.1% on an average holding period of 34 calendar days. They remain a hold, without stops, at least until the next review next week. I am still adding no new picks.
The market enters a pivotal week where bullish cycle structures at the short and intermediate levels must contend with intensifying geopolitical pressure. Whether the S&P 500 can clear immediate resistance to reach targets near xxxx will determine if technical cycle phases can override external fundamental shocks.
Cycles are in gear to the downside, except for the 4 week cycle, which has extended beyond its ideal bottom window. The 6-7 week cycle projection of xxxx is an outlier for now, but if projected channel support around xxxx breaks, this could turn into a steep, fast decline to much lower levels. The next support area is around xxxx.
Sell in May and go away is coming early this year.
Supply Tsunami, Arriving Early War spending blew a $142 billion hole in the usual April budget surplus. T-bill paydowns ended weeks before they normally do. The market must now absorb supply that dwarfs anything seen in comparable prior periods. Are you ready? This report replaces what the TBAC formerly published for us. It shows the bi monthly supply schedule of net coupon issuance and an estimate of the gargantuan T-bill supply that lies ahead.
The unprecedented level of supply will lead to an unprecedented outcome.
The market enters a pivotal week where bullish cycle structures at the short and intermediate levels must contend with intensifying geopolitical pressure. Whether the S&P 500 can clear immediate resistance to reach targets near xxxx will determine if technical cycle phases can override external fundamental shocks.
The two remaining picks on the list have an average gain of 47.1% on an average holding period of 34 calendar days. They remain a hold, without stops, at least until the next review next week. I am still adding no new picks.
The seasonal T-bill paydown tsunami has arrived. Since March 24, $220.8 billion in T-bill paydowns has flooded the market with cash, temporarily overwhelming every bearish structural force. We have been on the alert for this. It happens every year. The magnitude of the rally is unusual. The mechanism is not.
The seasonal T-bill paydown tsunami has arrived. Since March 24, $220.8 billion in T-bill paydowns has flooded the market with cash, temporarily overwhelming every bearish structural force. We have been on the alert for this. It happens every year. The magnitude of the rally is unusual. The mechanism is not.
April’s performance was still negative on closed trades but a significant improvement from March including two big winners that remain open. The two picks remaining on the list have an average 39% gain. The combined result is an average 4.8% gain on an average 29 day holding period, on all picks closed in April and those currently remaining open.
The market enters a pivotal week where bullish cycle structures at the short and intermediate levels must contend with intensifying geopolitical pressure. Whether the S&P 500 can clear immediate resistance to reach targets near xxxx will determine if technical cycle phases can override external fundamental shocks.