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Author: Lee Adler

Subscriber Report – Gold Trader Update: Market Uncertainty & 7 New Mining Picks After a Strong 3/6/25

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February closed with an impressive 17.8% average gain across 8 closed mining stock picks. In this latest report, 7 new mining stocks have been added to the watchlist, reflecting short-term buy signals emerging strong long-term setups. This issue provides an updated cycle outlook for gold and mining stocks, assessing key levels and trends. Gold itself is at a pivotal point. We need to be alert for any sign of a shift in the trend.  

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Subscriber Report – Tax Revenues Hold Liquidity Up—for Now. But Supply Pressures Are Coming

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Withholding tax collections jumped year-over-year as of March 3—at the upper end of the past year’s strong nominal growth trend. This report illustrates what that means for Treasury supply and the liquidity outlook for stocks. 

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Subscriber Report- Lee Adler Attacks AI’s Wall Street-Approved Nonsense

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This week, I take a fresh approach—a Q&A debate with my AI assistant, AI-vin Chatmonk, where I challenge Wall Street’s liquidity narratives. Did AI get it right, or did I have to set it straight?

🔎 Inside this report:
Updated macro-liquidity charts
AI-generated analysis (with my pushback)
A structured addendum for quick reference

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Subscriber Report- Market at a Pivotal Turning Point

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A short term bounce is due, but there are huge risks in the big picture. This report gives the particulars. 

Liquidity Trader Swing Trade Picks – March 3, 2025

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This week’s swing trade picks come from a multi-timeframe algorithmic screening process covering all NYSE and Nasdaq stocks meeting institutional price and volume criteria—over 1,500 stocks reviewed weekly.

While the algo screens generate the raw picks, final selection is done manually by me, applying 55 years of cycle chart experience to select the highest-probability setups. 

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Get high-probability trade setups that combine quantitative screening with expert cycle analysis. 

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🔎 Executive Summary

Liquidity Trader’s proprietary cycle-based screens continue to deliver higher-quality swing trade setups. Last week’s positioning helped traders take advantage of the market decline, with short trades playing out profitably while select long setups remain poised for opportunity.

📊 Recent Performance (Short-Term Trade Setups):
Closed Trades (Last Week): +6.6% avg gain, 15-day avg holding period
Open Positions: +7.2% avg gain, 9-day avg holding period
February Closed Trades: +3.7% avg gain, 15-day avg holding period

📈 Inside This Week’s Report:
New Swing Trade Picks – Fresh setups based on refined cycle screens. One new pick for this week. 
Proprietary Cycle Charts – See where current open and new picks stand and decide when to enter or exit.
Market Positioning Insights – See how Liquidity Trader identified last week’s decline before it happened

Subscriber Report – Gold’s Next Move: A Retest of Support or a Run to New Highs 2/19/25

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Gold’s trend remains intact, but short-term cycle shifts raise questions about the next move. Is this just a routine pullback or the start of something bigger? This report breaks down the key signals, longer-term momentum, and what to watch for in the weeks ahead. 

 

Subscriber Report- Primary Dealer Risk Exposure and Market Implications – February-March 2025

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The latest Liquidity Trader Primary Dealer Position Report is live. 📊 This month’s analysis uncovers extreme dealer leverage, wild swings in repo financing, and the debt ceiling’s impact on liquidity flows.

🔍 Key insights:
Dealer fixed income inventories hit record highs – What does this mean for bonds and equities?
Repo market extreme leverage – A Stress Warning  – How close are we to a liquidity crunch?
Debt ceiling constraints temporarily limit supply – Bullish for now, but what happens when the floodgates reopen?

📖 Read the full report here.

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Subscriber Report- 6 Month Cycle Status in Doubt, Here are the Parameters to Watch

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While some bullish indicators remain, several cycle sell signals suggest that we need to b e vigilant for further signs of trend reversals. Here are the key price parameters to watch this week. 

S&P 500 Volatility Adjusted Cycle Chart, Indicator titles hidden

Top Swing Trade Screen Picks for Subscribers- February 25, 2025

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Liquidity Trader proprietary cycle screens returned 1087 charts that met ideal major trend buy setup criteria last week. That’s out of 1555 that met minimum price and volume criteria. The initial screen is weekly so the weighting of the 4 days prior to what happened Friday probably gives a misleading impression. That’s one of the reason I make my final trade picks only from the daily screens on the closing prices on the day before the report.

Drilling down, there were 206 stocks that met intermediate buy side criteria (down from 268 the prior week) and 194 that hit short term buy triggers over the course of the week. 

Hard to believe that only 64 charts met ideal major sell criteria on the week. That means that they rose to long term resistance and were rebuffed. Most stocks had met that criteria in preceding weeks, which is why the number is so low. 52 had ideal intermediate term sell setups. 79 hit short term sell triggers. 

Looking at just Friday’s data among the major and intermediate buy setups, there were 71 ideal major trend buy setups out of the 1555 stocks that met minimum institutional price and volume criteria.  There were 111 ideal intermediate buy setups. Of those two groups, just 42 triggered short term buy signals. These are the charts that I visually reviewed for final selection.

On the sell side there were 13 ideal major trend sell setups. Again, the low number is due to many stocks forming these setups in prior days and weeks. There were 59 ideal intermediate term sell setups. Of those two groups, 59 stocks triggered short term sell signals, which included all of the intermediate setups. These were the charts that I visually reviewed for final selection. 

On visual review I liked 2 of the buys and 9 of the shorts as shown on the table in the subscriber report. 

One existing pick hit its stop price during the week. I had selected 4 picks to be covered at last week’s open. Including last week’s closed picks and open picks still on the list as of Friday’s close, the list showed an average gain of 3.0% on an average holding period of 12 calendar days versus 11.7% with an average holding period of 18 calendar days the previous week. Closed picks in February to date have had an average gain of 5.1% with an average holding period of 17 calendar days.

New picks have started off with a recoil, but that’s not unusual. I’m pulling the plug on several but I want to give others a couple of weeks before pulling the weeds. Given the market volatility, I’ve added protective stops to several. The risk with a market that closed like Friday’s is that the stops will be gapped, and then filled, so you can use mental stops if you are of that mind. Either way, there’s risk, as you know.

 I have designated 5 buys to be closed as of Monday’s opening prices. Net of those, this week the list starts with 19 open and new picks of which 2 are longs and 17 are shorts.

I am letting the new picks and 2 existing picks ride without stops. I am adding or adjusting stops on remaining picks as shown on the table below. Subscribers can see the complete table of picks and results in the subscriber report. 

🔗 Subscribers, download the full report here to access this week’s detailed analysis and chart picks.

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Gold Trends and Cycle Analysis Suggest Danger Ahead 2/19/25

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Gold is still trending but cycle indicators suggest growing risk. Mining stock picks have pulled back to hit profit taking trailing stops while 2 picks are still being swung.  This report provides a detailed cycle-based analysis, highlighting critical levels and trend shifts that could impact the market.

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