Lee AdlerUS Commercial Bank data had been sending warning signals that all was not well for at least a year before the stock market crashed. I…
To the degree that it’s true, the idea that the US economy is recovering is a catastrophic notion for the financial markets. Surprisingly, the withholding…
The line items of the Fed’s Pandemic Panic Emergency Programs get a lot of media and analyst attention these days. What a waste of time…
We’ve watched this bizarre scene unfold where the Fed is gradually reducing QE, the Treasury keeps pounding the market with new supply and stock prices…
I’ve marveled at the ability of the players to keep stock prices rising despite the reduction of Fed QE, and the continued pounding of Treasury…
Back in December I had no idea that a pandemic was coming. I had no idea that COVID19 would cause Treasury supply to increase 10x.…
We knew this was coming. $265 billion in MBS settlements for May are almost done. Now we reap the whirlwind. Here’s what to expect and…
Treasury issuance has caught up with QE. There are no more excess funds lying around for dealers to use to mark up stock and bond…
In normal times, the Federal Government has a revenue windfall in April, and runs a large surplus for the month. Revenues are typically at least…
Macro liquidity has slowed slightly in recent weeks as the Fed has taken its foot off the accelerator. But it continues to grow at an…
The Fed has cut back its POMO purchases to an average of $8 billion per day of Treasuries and $6 billion of MBS this week.…
The Federal deficit hit $1 trillion in April. That’s a cool 1,500% increase year to year. That’s for one month. This is based on the…