Subscribers, click here to download the report.
The tide that floated all boats for three years is receding. The perpetual motion machine that debt built is running in reverse. The Treasury basis trade that quietly financed the federal deficit while fueling a three-year equity bull market began unwinding in September 2025, and the liquidity architecture it supported — repo, foreign central bank demand, and speculative equity commitment — is now deteriorating simultaneously, with no replacement buyer in sight.
But that is not the whole story going forward. Here’s what you need to know.
This report explains and illustrates the facts that inevitably led to this outlook, and suggests how to view this context in your trading strategy.
This report disdains Wall Street mythology, shows the real data and illustrative charts that clearly define the issues. It suggests your investment strategy for dealing with the facts, as opposed to the Fed or Street narrative.
Want the real-time data that drives Treasury supply and market direction?
Get the full Macro Liquidity series at LiquidityTrader.com — updated as the numbers come in.
Click here for today’s report, the complete archive and upcoming reports every week.