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Author: Lee Adler

Federal Revenue Growth Gives Fed No Excuses, But Economic Strength May Be an Illusion

Lee Adler

Federal Deficit Chart- Availble full size in the reportFederal tax collection data for March showed modest economic growth but continuing wide Federal budget deficits. An uptick in nominal revenues has reduced Treasury issuance for the time being. But the revenue windfall will be counted and in the books by mid May. After that, things will change. Here’s what to expect and a recommended investment approach.

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Here’s How Light Treasury Supply In April and May Create Selling Opportunities in Bonds and Stocks

Lee Adler

Treasury Supply Trend. See full size chart in the report.

Short term rates in the Treasury money markets have remained near their highs despite the Fed announcing a less tight monetary policy, and despite a big reduction in Treasury supply over the past month.

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Gold Launch Pad Right Where Needed

Lee Adler

Gold’s launch from support is a positive sign. I have added 3 more toe-in-the-water mining picks after the last group was stopped out.

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Here Are the Targets Market Has Set Its Sights On

Lee Adler

The market is setting its sights on new highs, but there are reasons to believe that it might not make it. I have added tight trailing stops to protect the profit in last week’s SPY call purchase recommendation.

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Beware of Surprises as Withholding Taxes Stay Strong In March

Lee Adler

Withholding Tax Chart - Full sized in reportBeware! March withholding tax collections were strong, but excise taxes were weak.
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A Bug in Gold

Lee Adler

Gold’s sharp pullback last week has created some problems for the long term outlook. Here’s a look at what they are, and what needs to happen to keep the situation from deteriorating.

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Here’s Why It’s a Make or Break Week for Bears, But Bulls Too

Lee Adler

This is a make or break week for both stock market bulls and bears. Futures exploded higher in the wee hours, making it appear that the path of least resistance is up. If this sticks, it will be an intermediate term bullish confirmation. However, if it does not stick, the bears could gradually gain the upper hand. It’s only 4:30 AM NY time as I write this, and the pre market is the pre market. Let’s see where we are at 4:00PM.

Meanwhile, we have a new conditional SPY call buy recommendation. Here’s what needs to happen to trigger the trade.

Technical Trader subscribers, click here to download the report.

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As Fed Balance Sheet Shrinks, Speculative Bank Lending Soars

Lee Adler

The Fed’s balance sheet is shrinking, but bank lending for speculative purposes has soared. That is supporting financial asset price inflation. That’s dangerous. This report shows how it works, and why you should be concerned.

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Federal Tax Receipts and Other Real Time Data Bely the Current Narrative

Lee Adler

Withholding Tax Chart - Full sized in reportReal time federal tax receipts and other real time data bely the current bullish narrative. Here’s why the Fed won’t ease policy and why the rally won’t end well.

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Here’s What Gold Needs to Do to Improve the Odds

Lee Adler

There’s a critical price level that gold needs to cross to signal that it will ultimately break out to the upside in a new bull market upleg. Meanwhile, I have added another mining stock pick. We now have 3 toes in the water for a move to the upside, with stops of course!

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Try Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader, including the Gold and Mining Stock Trader risk free for 90 days! Follow the money. Find the profits.  

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