All cycles are in position to set up a swing low this week. It doesn’t guarantee that it will happen. It just means that the setup is propitious. Here are the signs and levels to watch this week to tell you whether it’s coming or, something worse. Non subscribers click here to access.
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THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!
_______________________________________
These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.
Cycle projections rose, but the low ends of the projected ranges have been reached. The price is now in the time window for a xxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx. Short-term cycles have entered down phases but xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx. Then one more rally to xxxxx xxxxx xxxxxx. Non-subscribers click here for access.
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The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.
Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk.
The warning signs from the Fed’s weekly real time balance sheet data and slightly lagged data on the condition of the US banking system continued last week. The market has acted badly, but this isn’t likely “IT” yet. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx began in early April, and they will continue to xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxx the markets for the next 4 weeks or so. Most of that xxxxx will be coming over the next two weeks. As a result, any additional market decline from here is likely to be xxxxxxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
Timing that will be tricky and a matter for technical analysis. My technical work has suggested that ideally a 6-month cycle low is due xxxxxx xxxx xxxxxx. A couple of weeks on either side of that would be normal, so we need to be alert, as illustrated in Monday’s Technical Trader report. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
We can expect a bigger selloff once the Treasury starts borrowing again, on balance, probably around the xxxxxxxxxxxxxx, and especially when the Fed’s RRP facility is effectively out of cash, which isn’t likely until xxxxxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
Meanwhile, let’s run through the charts and data so that you can see the logic behind this conclusion. First a review of how this conclusion has evolved over the past couple of months. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
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The list held its own last week as the market sank. The shorts did well and the longs did ok. The average gain last week was 16.6% on an average holding period of 34 calendar days. That includes picks still open at the end of the week, plus those stopped out during the week. That performance compares with the previous week’s 17.3% on an average holding period of 27 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.
The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.
Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.
This public report is not the full report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports. Non-subscribers click here for access.
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That may be a little extreme, but indications that the 6-month cycle down phase, which has shown up very late in the cycle, xxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx potential. That’s consistent with another month of xxxxxxxx liquidity ahead. Non subscribers click here to access.
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If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!
_______________________________________
These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.
We’re in the kind of runaway move that harkens back to the old days when gold was a popular investment. The 9-12 month cycle projection has now risen to xxxx. The high is due by xxxx xx. The 13-week cycle is due to top out by xxxx xx, with the projection rising to xxxx-xxxx. Short-term cycles now point to xxxx-xxxx. Non-subscribers click here for access.
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If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.
The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.
Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk.
I apologize for the late posting! The report was written over the weekend but inadvertently not uploaded. Performance slipped yesterday but no stops were hit. The performance table is updated with Monday’s closing prices. Charts are as of Friday, April 5. Non-subscribers click here for access.
The list had an ok week last week, despite the market’s wild fluctuations. The average gain last week was 17.3% on an average holding period of 27 calendar days. That includes picks still open at the end of the week, plus those closed out during the week. That performance compares favorably with the previous week’s 16.7% on an average holding period of 31 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.
Past performance does not suggest future results. But at least this suggests that since I have made the change to a fully automated selection process over the past 3 weeks, so far, so good. Non-subscribers click here for access.
There are now 3 layers of screens. The first is the raw output of various buy and sell filters. The second filters those for intermediate trend. The third is a filter of short-term signal triggers. This is new as of March 2024. The new method reduces the final output to a manageable number for final visual review as a check, to remove those that I’m not comfortable with for final selection. Non-subscribers click here for access.
The latest screens found 321 total unfiltered buys and 522 total unfiltered sells last week. That compares with the previous week’s 117 buys and 238 total sells. So it still appears to be a two way market, with an edge to the sell side. Non-subscribers click here for access.
Friday alone saw 4 buys and 3 sells after the final trigger filters were applied. Not much to choose from. The trends on both sides are mature. Non-subscribers click here for access.
Due to the scarcity of picks on Friday, I reviewed charts from the rest of the week as well as Friday’s picks. Nothing was still interesting. Some had already moved and the rest didn’t have setups that I liked. So I am adding only one pick to the list this week. It’s a short, shown on the table below. Non-subscribers click here for access.
Going forward, I will review the performance of the charts I rule out on visual review to see if this is a worthwhile step, or whether simply going with the raw output yields better results. Non-subscribers click here for access.
I want the output to be simple to follow and to require only a few minutes to review and implement each week. On that score, I post a table with specific signal indications along with the charts of the new buy and sell short picks so that you can evaluate them and do with them as you might. Non-subscribers click here for access.
We came into last week with 10 open picks, including 3 shorts and 7 longs. 4 longs hit their stops during the week, leaving 3 short and 3 longs at the end of the week. I am adding just one short and no buys this week, to start the week with 3 longs and 4 shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.
I have adjusted stops for most existing picks. I have removed a stock from one pick and will let it ride this week. New picks will be added without stops. Risk management is assumed via multiple small positions that won’t break the bank if they go wrong. Non-subscribers click here for access.
The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.
Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.
This public report is not the full report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports. Non-subscribers click here for access.
Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”
If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.
The market pulled back to the bottom of projected cycle channels last week. A decline would signal that those channels are beginning to turn lower, although not necessarily down in absolute terms. There would be a basis for xxxxxx xxxxxx on swing trades. Non subscribers click here to access.
On the other hand, if the market firms up from here, then there would be room to run to xxxx or higher over the next xx-xx weeks. That would be a setup for picking up long positions for a trade. Non subscribers click here to access.
Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”
If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!
_______________________________________
These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.
Withholding tax collections looked very strong for March, at first glance. But there was a one day anomaly in the data that skewed the monthly number hugely positive. It was the only day like that. When I adjusted that day to something consistent with the direction of the rest of the month, suddenly things didn’t look so hot. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
That said, more revenue is more revenue, and for March at least, there was more revenue. That means less Treasury supply. Add that to the positive seasonality of tax collections adding cash to government coffers which in turn leads to massive paydowns of Treasury bills, and April and May still come out as cash cows for stocks and bonds. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
And that’s normally bullish, regardless of all of the market histrionics of the past week. Of course cash doesn’t guarantee a bull stampede, but it means that the gates are open for them to easily run through. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
As you know, this is only part of the big picture. It’s an important one though. This report tells, and shows, you what you need to know to understand what to do with your portfolio to protect yourself from what’s to come, and even profit from it.
The Fed’s weekly real time balance sheet data and its slightly lagged data on the condition of the US banking system have flashed warning signs that the rally is on its last legs. xxxxxxx, Treasury bill paydowns have begun on schedule, and they will xxxx cash xxxx the markets for the next 6 weeks. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
This will lead to xxxx xxxx xxxx for stocks, and should also xxxx the bond market. A big xxxxxxx in bonds hangs in the balance. Stocks should be xxxxxx off and on through April and part of May before the xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx vomitorium. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”
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Lee Adler
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