Menu Close

Author: Lee Adler

Swing Trade Screen Picks – Adding Longs

Lee Adler

The screens generated more buys than sells for the week ended Monday. There were 123 charts with a second buy signal over the last two days of the period, and 79 charts with second sell signals. That was a shift from Friday, when sells dominated, but Monday’s rally flipped many charts into the buy column. There are a large number of borderline and whipsaw signals. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

It’s difficult to be confident that this will stick, but it sets the market up for yet another Fed policy re-substantiation rally. So I’m putting the existing shorts already on the list on a tight leash with protective stops just above key resistance levels.   And I am adding longs.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

Go to the post

Last Week I Warned of Market Crash Potential

Lee Adler

Last week, I posted this warning:

Technical signs of an intermediate bottom forming have broken, and cycle projections now point lower. Multiple failed buy signals mean that the market is currently more vulnerable to a crash than has been the case for a long time. Watch out if the market breaks down on Monday. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

That worst case scenario appeared to be in the process of being actualized last week. But with a Fed meeting on tap, this morning there’s been some pre-emptive nibbling and short covering. Non subscribers click here to access.

Despite that, the outlook remains in a range from mildly negative to possible crash. Here’s the supporting evidence, and specific projections for likely time frames and price ranges for the next bottom. Non subscribers click here to access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Go to the post

Here’s Why Macro Liquidity Still Signals Record Danger

Lee Adler

Composite Liquidity is flat and will almost certainly remain no better than flat for as long as the Fed continues to shrink its assets. There’s been just enough private credit creation, that is, money creation, to offset the Fed’s QT. So total liquidity goes nowhere. If bank deposits or foreign central bank purchases of US securities shrink, or if bank sales of Treasuries increase, the CLI will turn more negative. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

That’s bad news for stocks and bonds, which have lately been doing poorly enough even with flat liquidity. That’s because constant massive Treasury issuance sucks more money out of the financial sphere than buyers of Treasuries have been creating by using repo to finance their purchases. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Since the Fed started QT and liquidity turned flat, we have seen a shift in the overbought/ oversold parameters from what they had been under QE. We have an idea of where oversold is from the low one year ago. But as for overbought, we don’t have any idea. We only know that liquidity remains a constraint to upside progress, and an incentive for liquidation. So there’s reason to think that even if the CLI stays flat, the S&P will xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx low around 3585. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Meanwhile, an opinion I stated in June proved itself. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

6/6/23 Just imagine for a moment how bullish sentiment would become if the market tested the old high. The froth would be off the charts as virtually everyone would conclude that it was a new bull market. But without QE, it would not be. It would be a major top to end a cyclical bull market within a secular bear market. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

We’ll leave that determination to technical analysis. For our purposes here, the current liquidity tableau simply doesn’t support a long-term bull trend. But neither does it rule out an extension of the current rally. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

By July, Wall Street had turned bullish. Even the long-term technical indicators that I follow looked bullish. But these liquidity indicators were flashing red, which I noted in reports in August and September. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The conditions that led to those red flashing lights have not been corrected. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Such liquidity indications tend to precede long major cycle swings in prices. In that respect we are probably in the first stage of another major cycle bear market within a secular bear market similar to the late 1960s to 1982 and 2000-2009. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Here’s the supporting evidence including charts showing exactly why we should expect this outcome. And I’ll tell how I’m looking at it tactically and strategically for your consideration. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

Go to the post

Beware of Bear Market Crash Potential

Lee Adler

Technical signs of an intermediate bottom forming have broken, and cycle projections now point lower. Multiple failed buy signals mean that the market is currently more vulnerable to a crash than has been the case for a long time. Watch out if the market breaks down on Monday. Here’s what to look for.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Go to the post

Swing Trade Screen Picks – Which is Better, Late or Never?

Lee Adler

The screens generated far more sells than buys last week, needless to say. There were 133 final sell signals and just 17 buys. Of those 17, 17 were fixed income ETFs. Time for a little countertrend rally in bonds?

I reviewed all of the charts on the sell side. Many of the charts had been in extended declines, but there were plenty more with new short term sell signals that looked enticing. I chose 7 to add to the list as shorts this week. Since they got hammered on Friday and this morning’s open is looking weak, I will track them based on the average price of this morning’s open and Wednesday’s opening print. This would assume a half entry now, and the other half Wednesday morning. Purely arbitrary SWAG for the entry price. No stops yet. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

Go to the post

Swing Trade Screen Picks – Interim Update

Lee Adler

Thanks to problems with my Windoze operating system, this will be an interim update, just for existing picks. I hope to have the operating system issues solved ASAP and will follow with a regular update of this report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

Go to the post

When the Market Is Ready, an Event Will Appear

Lee Adler

Events have triggered a turn in gold. Here’s why it’s likely to stick, and for how long, and how far.    Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

Go to the post

Cycles Still Lean One Way, Not t’Other

Lee Adler

I give an very slight edge that the market will go this way on the basis of the 6 month cycle, but other indications suggest that the up phase is ……. ……. ……… It’s not a time for xxxxx xxxxxx, but I’m leaning toward the xxxxxx side, and would press the bets if that’s confirmed. On the other hand, if there’s no xxxxxx this week, then xxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxx would be a good bet.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Go to the post

Dealers Pull In Their Horns

Lee Adler

This report was originally sent yesterday under the wrong headline. 

Mid-July was a period of extreme risk in dealer positioning. The subsequent weeks until October 4 indicated a shift toward deleveraging that could become persistent, and persistently bearish, for both stocks and bonds. Any rallies would be swimming against the tide.  Eventually, they will be exhausted. Here are the pictures of the data that prove this view, and tell us what to do with it.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

Go to the post

Veal Market – Baby Calves Get Slaughtered

Lee Adler

The list got slaughtered last week. At best, my buy side picks were too early, and at worst, flat out wrong. The average loss is now 2.9% with an average holding period of 12 calendar days, including 2 picks that hit stops and were closed out. With the 18 remaining open picks, for those whose buy signals have reversed, I have added tight stops. It boils down to the dreaded “holdin and hopin,” for a rebound and better exit point, but with lines in the sand where I will retreat and regroup. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

Go to the post
%d bloggers like this: