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Author: Lee Adler

Swing Trade Screen Picks – No Gifts for the Holidays

Lee Adler

The screens generated more buys than sell signals on Friday continuing a string that has lasted many weeks. It came after two days with a majority of sell signals during the week. But the numbers were small and remain small as the advance matures. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

For the week ended Friday, there were 28 charts with a second buy signal in a week, and 14 with a second sell signal. Friday’s raw totals were a surprising 31 to 29. Call it a virtual tie. One of the buys was a bearish gold stock ETF.

I reviewed all of the charts from today’s screen results. Based on typically sloppy market behavior around the holidays I am reluctant to add any stocks to the list during this period. None of the charts was so compelling that I would add them in mid December when cross currents are even more prevalent than usual.

We came into last week with 10 longs and 2 shorts on the list. I had stop prices on all of them. 5 of the longs hit their stops. That left 8 longs and 2 shorts on the list to start this week. I have added or adjusted stops on all of them and will remove one as of Monday’s opening price. This is with the intent of closing out the longs as this rally ages.

As of Monday’s close, the average theoretical gain on the existing picks was 11.8% with an average holding period of 24 calendar days. That’s little changed from the prior week’s average gain of 11.9%, with an average holding period of 24 days.

Five picks have been closed out in December so far. 4 were profitable. Including all 5 closeouts, the average gain was 9.2%, with an average holding period of 28 calendar days.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

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Stock Market Dancing on the Ceiling

Lee Adler

There are a few reasons to think that the market should top out here. Should and will are two different things and there are more reasons to think that it’s going higher. High enough in fact, to xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Gold Got There Fast But Race is Over

Lee Adler

Gold hit short-term cycle projections in the expected time window and has begun a consolidation/correction. This is due to last into  xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxx. Then, ideally in xxxxxx xxxxx, there should be an attempt to test the high or make a minor new high on the 9-12 month cycle.   Our miner swing trade chart picks pulled back. I’m sitting tight.   Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – November Was a Good Month, List Still Mostly Long – Link Corrected

Lee Adler

The screens still generated more buys than sell signals on Monday despite the drop in the market. But as I reviewed the charts, the quality of those buy signals wasn’t great. They were late cycle, higher risk signals. On the other hand, there were still hardly any sell signals. For the week ended Monday, there were 47 charts with a second buy signal in a week, and just 9 with a second sell signal. Monday’s raw totals were 63 buys to 35 sells. On not one day last week did sell signals outnumber buys. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

I reviewed all of the charts from today’s screen results. I will add one on the short sale side, but with a limit price, and a protective stop in case it goes the wrong way. I added two on the buy side for the first time in 3 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

We came into last week with 12 longs and 2 shorts on the list. I had stop prices on all of them. 4 of the longs hit their stops. The stops were too tight because a couple of them reversed and went higher. That left 8 longs and 2 shorts on the list to start this week. I adjusted stops on all of them. This is with the intent of closing out the longs as this rally ages. Non-subscribers click here for access.

As of Monday’s close, the average theoretical gain on the existing picks was 11.9% with an average holding period of 24 calendar days. That’s up from an average gain of 7.3%, with an average holding period of 20 days the week before. So we tacked on 4.6% last week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

November was a good month with 10 of 12 closed picks registering gains. Closed picks had an average gain of 5% with an average holding period of 15 calendar days. These results are theoretical, based on the assumption of all cash trades, no margin, no options.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

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Tax Revenues and Liquidity are Crashing

Lee Adler

What the market doesn’t know, will hurt it.

The US economy slowed radically in November. It may have even contracted. We don’t need jobs data or economic survey data of any kind to know that. We know it from the November tax collection data. As of Friday, we had that data for the full month, and it is ugly. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

It means that Treasury supply will get even heavier than the gargantuan amounts already forecast by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) for December and the first quarter of 2024. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Meanwhile, cash keeps gushing out of the Fed’s RRP slush fund. Market participants have pulled hundreds of billions in cash out of the Fed RRP account month after month, and especially in November. They used some of that cash to buy the flood of T-bills issued by the US Treasury, but less than usual in November. Because they used more than usual to buy longer term Treasury notes and bonds, and… oh yes… stocks. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

But as the Federal deficit grows because of weak revenues, that money will run out, as I pointed out last week. And it now looks at thought it will be gone before April Fool’s Day, which is what my guess was last week. At the current withdrawal rate, it will be gone within 3 months. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Meanwhile, these market rallies have already sucked a lot of stock and bond bulls into the market. I don’t know that we can say that the markets are overbought, but I can say that we’re getting closer. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

That’s because… Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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Christmas Goose Temperature Nears Required Doneness

Lee Adler

The Christmas goose is in the oven. Its temperature is rising, and it’s almost done. Be careful. If the holiday guests like this market goose enough, they’ll eat too much. And then they’ll puke.

I’m thinking Christmas puke party. But first, there are Wall Street office parties to attend. All the spiked Kool Aid you can drink. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Gold Breaks Out Targets Higher

Lee Adler

Gold has made a beautiful high base breakout that has a conventional measured move target of around xxxx. The 9-12 month cycle now has a projection of xxxxxx, with a high ideally due between xxxxxxx and xxxxxxx. The 13-week cycle projection is xxxx. That cycle is out of sync, with xxxxx xxxxx time frame for a top. Short-term cycle peaks are due xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx, with projections ranging from xxxx to xxxx. Our miner swing trade chart picks are now up 16%. I’m adding two more to the list.   Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Read My Lips, No New Longs. But a Couple Shorts

Lee Adler

The screens still generated more buys than sell signals again over the past week but the advance is tiring. For the week ended Monday, there were 18 charts with a second buy signal on Monday and 14 with second sell signals. That’s down from 61 to 2 on the buy side, the week before. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

I reviewed all of the charts from today’s screen results. For the first time in a long time I found two that I will add on the short sale side, but with protective stops in case they head out of the gate the wrong way. I did not like any of the buys. For the second straight week, I’m forgoing adding any buy side picks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

We come into last week with 18 longs on the list. I added stops to 11 of those and six of them got hit. That leaves 12 longs on the list to start this week. I added or adjusted stops on all of them. This is with the intent of closing them out as this rally ages. Non-subscribers click here for access.

As of Monday’s close, the average theoretical gain on the existing picks was 7.3% with an average holding period of 20 calendar days. That’s the same average gain as last week, with an average holding period of an additional week. In other words, the list treaded water last week. The gain for November so far is double October’s loss. Finally, some progress after treading water since July. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

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420 Friendly Market

Lee Adler

Cycle projections and time frames say that the rally isn’t done with us yet. The Qs are already on a high, but look like they could get higher. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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This Chart Tells Us Exactly When the Bull Market Will End

Lee Adler

Back in the good old days of QE, liquidity analysis was straightforward. The Fed pumped money into the markets via the conduit of Primary Dealer trading accounts and stocks and bond prices went up. When the Fed paused a couple of times, prices also paused, even came down a little. Then the Fed would start pumping again and up prices would go.

Easy-peasy. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

We caught on to that game soon after the Fed started buying Treasuries direct from the Primary Dealers in March 2009. In fact, from the time I first started closely tracking the Fed’s daily open market operations against stock prices in 2002, we knew that there was a correlation. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

As a result, when they started QE, I was concerned that it would have a massive influence on the markets, creating a gross distortion with largely unknowable negative consequences. We then got to live the nightmare of central bank market manipulation for a dozen years. But at least it was easy to see and forecast cause and effect. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

From mid 2014 until late 2017 the Fed held steady. Then Janet Yellen began shrinking the balance sheet in late 2017, in what they called “normalization” and I called “bloodletting.” It didn’t work. The Treasury kept pedal to the metal in debt issuance and the market couldn’t handle it. This was despite the BoJ and ECB taking the handoff from the Fed. They printed like mad from 2015 through 2017 while the Fed was in pause mode. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The ECB and BoJ got on board with “normalization in 2017-19. Stocks started to rebound after a hard selloff in 2018. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Janet started the bloodletting in 2017, for which she gets no credit, and US stocks and bonds had a series of mild cases of diarrhea. That led to the September 2019 repo market “plumbing problem.” Yeah, it was a plumbing problem alright. The toilet got stopped up with TP—Treasury paper. Jay the plumber kneeled down and gave the market “Not QE.” It got quite a response. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

But the $400 billion of “Not QE” was a mere drop in the bucket compared to what was to come. The Pandemic Panic. The Treasury issued, and the Fed bought, a couple of trillion in new debt in the space of a couple of months. You see that on the left side of the chart. Then the Fed continued this new round of QE for another 18 months at a slower pace, despite the fact that it wasn’t needed. The US economy had already begun to recover and had gotten up a head of steam. Even the working poor got helicopter money. Of course, hedge fund operators continued to get paid, while Ma and Pa Saver continued to get zilch, i.e. ZIRP on their hard earned savings. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

All of that money printing made it easy to make money in the market. The Fed bought or financed almost all of the Treasury issuance. Fed credit begat animal spirits, private credit creation, and increasing leverage. Bulls were all geniuses, and bears were all idiots. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

It was easy because it was predictable. The Fed and Treasury always told us exactly what to expect in advance. More debt. More money. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Now it’s not so easy. We’re still getting the more debt part of it, only the Fed ain’t payin for it any more. Nor are the ECB or the BoJ. Curmudgeons all. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The Fed stopped QE and started draining money from the banking system with what we call Quantitative Tightening, or QT, in April 2022. Starting with the months where the Fed was ending QE, we had a bear market for 21 months. We see that in the center of the chart. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Then, recovery began in October 2022 despite the fact that the Fed was still curmudgeonly. We see that on the right third of the chart. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Just how did they accomplish that levitation act? The Fed had a trick up its sleeve. This report tells and shows exactly how it works, and how we know exactly when it will stop working. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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