Author: Lee Adler

I give an very slight edge that the market will go this way on the basis of the 6 month cycle, but other indications suggest that the up phase is ……. ……. ……… It’s not a time for xxxxx xxxxxx, but I’m leaning toward the xxxxxx side, and would press the bets if that’s confirmed. On the other hand, if there’s no xxxxxx this week, then xxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxx would be a good bet.

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

The list got slaughtered last week. At best, my buy side picks were too early, and at worst, flat out wrong. The average loss is now 2.9% with an average holding period of 12 calendar days, including 2 picks that hit stops and were closed out. With the 18 remaining open picks, for those whose buy signals have reversed, I have added tight stops. It boils down to the dreaded “holdin and hopin,” for a rebound and better exit point, but with lines in the sand where I will retreat and regroup. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

For a change, the screens produced more charts for final visual review on the buy side than the sell side, with 42 buys and 38 sells based on Friday’s output. The score was even more lopsided using data through Thursday with 71 buys and just 18 sells. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

From Friday’s group I chose 10 that I liked enough to add to the list. 3 of those are conditioned on a limit price as shown on the table below. The other 7 will be added based on Monday’s opening price and we’ll track them from there. There were no shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Three of the existing picks hit stops last week. They’re out as of the first price after the stop. Another was closed as of Tuesday’s open, as I had placed a sell note on it last week. With the new additions, assuming limit conditions are hit, there will be 20 active picks. Only one is a short. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I added or adjusted stops on 4 existing picks. New picks will have no stop indications initially. Non-subscribers click here for access.

9/11/23 I assume risk mitigation through diversification and small position sizes. However, because the list is now long only, there’s market risk is high, given the principle of synchronicity. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Expecting a 6-month cycle low in the past couple of weeks led me to have a bullish bias in selecting swing trade picks from the screens. I focused on the buy side and ignored the sell side. The result was that September was the worst month for list performance going back at least a year with an average loss of 3.3% on an average holding period of 20 calendar days. That virtually cancelled August’s average gain. Non-subscribers click here for access.

9/26/23 I missed a big opportunity on the short side over the past month. Unfortunately, the decline has aged to the point that it is probably too late to be looking to add shorts. So I continue to be on the lookout more for buy side opportunities. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The riddle lies in whether this might be the first leg of a new cyclical bear market. In that case, the downside may persist longer than has been the case over the past year. So, as I reviewed the screen output I wanted to be open to good sell side setups too. Non-subscribers click here for access.

9/5/23 Picks closed out in August had an average theoretical gain of 3.7% on an average theoretical holding period of 26 calendar days, just under 4 weeks. With the revised methodology, I’d like to see that stretched out a bit more. Non-subscribers click here for access.

8/7/23 July had been difficult. After starting off with a string of losses on closed picks, the month ended at dead breakeven on the basis of a good last two weeks. Just 59% of the picks were winners, and the result was only a breakeven. I marvel at those options tout services who report 1000% gains month after month. But I wonder why they don’t own the world.

7/10/23 June was solid, with 25 picks closed at an average theoretical gain of 9.7% on an average holding period of 36 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

9/26/23 I missed a big opportunity on the short side over the past month. Unfortunately, the decline has aged to the point that it is probably too late to be looking to add shorts. So I continue to be on the lookout more for buy side opportunities. Non-subscribers click here for access.

9/26/23 The riddle lies in whether this might be the first leg of a new cyclical bear market. In that case, the downside may persist longer than has been the case over the past year. So, as I reviewed the screen output I wanted to be open to good sell side setups too. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.