Menu Close

Author: Lee Adler

Prime Time for Danger and Opportunity

It’s time for a 6-month cycle low, but bottom windows are also periods of heightened crash potential. The next couple of days are pivotal. Here’s what to look for. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

The Rhymes of History

I’m thinking in particular of the late 1960s to 1982, the era when I got my start in this business. It was a time of high inflation, tight money, rising interest rates and bond yields, and falling bond prices.

Sound familiar?

I want to replay comments from the August 16 update because they are important context.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

8/15/23 Liquidity analysis provides context, and some liquidity indicators, particularly those based on real time data, can give us timely hints of whether and when to expect a top, in conjunction with the TA. The banking data that I focus on here is released with a 9 day lag, but it can confirm what we’re seeing on the price charts. In addition, it often has enough lead time over the market trend that it can be timely in signaling and not just confirming a turn that’s about to happen. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The Fed’s weekly H41 balance sheet data is, with the exception of occasional emergency measures, a constant until the Fed changes policy. The Fed’s balance sheet reduction program steadily reduces money in the system by a net of about $70 billion per month. That’s a discussion that we’ve had in other reports. That’s the key negative force that is a background constant which private money creation must overcome to drive stock prices in a persistent uptrend. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Those forces were in control from May to July, but they’ve lost their grip since then. During the rally, animal spirits raged, and traders of all stripes were happy to take on more leverage to buy stocks. Lately, those animal spirits have flipped, especially over the past few days. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

How easily the market switches from greed to fear is a hallmark of the fact that with the central banks out of the money printing business, money creation is now entirely dependent on the willingness of market participants to borrow to buy. When they borrow and buy, collateral prices rise and money increases. The process is like a dog chasing its tail. When the dog gets tired, it just lays down on the floor. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Over the past 3 weeks, traders tired of the game. Now they’re sleeping and prices are falling. They’d better watch out, or soon the margin man will come to the door to take the sleeping dogs to a kill shelter. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

We can get a picture of those forces from bank deposit data and bank repo data. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Other key real time measures that we can watch are Money Market Fund Assets (MMF) and the Fed’s Reverse Repo (RRP) slush fund. During the rally in June and July, both shrank as investors piled into stocks. Institutional investors and hedge funds withdraw the money to buy stocks from their MMF. Banks and dealers also withdraw cash to buy stocks directly from the Fed’s RRP fund. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Those funds have stabilized, and in the case of Fed RRPs rebounded a little, in August . It means that they’re selling, which we already know from watching the price charts, and depositing the proceeds back in their MMFs and Fed RRPs. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

This report updates the data and tells you exactly what it means along with what to look for and what to do about it. Check it out! Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

Gold’s Flat Squeeze Tightens

Flat is as flat does, but a big break is coming.

I have added another pick to the miners’ swing trades.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

I have added another buy to the miners’ swing picks, bringing the total to 6 now.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

Screen Picks – An Awful Week, But Hold On a Minute!

I narrowed the final double check to Friday only this week since Friday’s hard selloff fully negated Thursday’s gains. The buys and sells were small in number and nearly the same on both sides with just 29 on the buy side and 30 on the sell side. Surprising. Had Thursday’s signals been included, the sells would have overwhelmed the buys.

After reviewing all the charts with final signals I added just one pick on the buy side (see table below) and no sells. The one buy was a gold stock, hardly a bullish omen. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

Shape of the 6-month Cycle Bottom

The cycle picture is surprisingly sanguine in view of Friday’s selloff. It hasn’t done much damage yet. But it will if the decline continues on Monday.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Gold Teeters Toward Disaster

Just when it looked like gold might be getting its act together it stalled again. It’s back in an inconclusive pattern, with xxxx now a critical line in the sand. Breaking that would lead to a target as low as xxxx or even the latest 9-12 month cycle projection of xxxx. On the other hand, if the price holds around xxxx, there would still be a chance that the trading range could resolve to the upside. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

I have added another buy to the miners’ swing picks, bringing the total to 6 now.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

Here’s Why This Stuck Market Is Not Surprising

Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised about the stuck market. No wonder it’s going nowhere. Flat is as flat does. Composite Liquidity is flat. There’s been just enough private credit creation, which is the same as money creation, to offset the Fed’s QT program. So total liquidity goes nowhere and stock prices are stuck, both over the past two months and since 2021. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

It may feel like a big bull market since last October, but in the big picture, it’s nothing. What we are left with is a range of motion based on the usual market sentiment swings that happen regularly every 2-4 years. But those swings have limits. They are constrained by the liquidity trend.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The current composite liquidity picture tells us that we face a critical juncture in about two weeks. Here’s what the that picture  tells us about where stocks are headed next.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

Reset Week Leaves List Uncomfortable

Using the new extended period filters, last week there were just 19 final buy signals against 67 sell signals. I looked at all of the charts and added none this week. The list is already loaded with buys, and I didn’t like the charts on the sell side. Either they had already been declining for too many weeks, or they were still in uptrends, with prices dipping to support. Neither setup represents ideal entry points for reduced risk, high reward. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Picks closed out in August had an average theoretical gain of 3.7% on an average theoretical holding period of 26 calendar days, just under 4 weeks. With the revised methodology, I’d like to see that stretched out a bit more.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

8/7/23 July had been difficult. After starting off with a string of losses on closed picks, the month ended at dead breakeven on the basis of a good last two weeks. Just 59% of the picks were winners, and the result was only a breakeven. I marvel at those options tout services who report 1000% gains month after month. But I wonder why they don’t own the world.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/10/23 June was solid, with 25 picks closed at an average theoretical gain of 9.7% on an average holding period of 36 calendar days.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

Market Needs a Pop Now

It needs it to confirm an important bottom. Otherwise. LTFO. This report shows you the setup to prepare you to make the right move.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Revising the Method, Better Picks

This week, I am starting a new screening mode which in theory should result in fewer false signals. In the interest of saving time, and generating fewer, but hopefully more reliable signals, I am dropping screens for cycle periods of shorter than 6 weeks. There were too many false signals, wasting too much of my time reviewing too many charts. Therefore, I have decided to focus on minimum cycle periods of 6 weeks and 10 weeks. I’m still requiring 2 signals during the week, including one on the last two days.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Using the new method, there were 22 buy side charts to review, and 13 on the sell side. None of the sells were interesting. However, I liked 10 of the 22 charts on the buy side and am adding those to the list, as shown on the table below. Due to the late posting, I will begin tracking these as of the 2 PM print on Tuesday, September 5.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

One existing buy pick and five existing shorts hit stops last week. After these changes, and including the 10 new picks, there will be 21 longs and 1 short on the list this week. The short is likely to be stopped out, which would leave the list 100% long, and heavy. Not a comfortable look, but I have to go with what I see. These charts look good.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

The new picks will be added without stops. Picks added last week will remain without stops. I have adjusted stops on some of the older picks. I assume risk mitigation through diversification and small position sizes. However, because the list is virtually long only, this represents a high degree of market risk, given the principle of synchronicity.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week was less successful than the prior week, with an average theoretical gain of 4% on an average holding period of 18 calendar days. That compared with 5.7% on an average holding period of 19 calendar days the previous week. The numbers assume all cash, no leverage, no margin, no options.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Picks closed out in August had an average theoretical gain of 3.7% on an average theoretical holding period of 26 calendar days, just under 4 weeks. With the revised methodology, I’d like to see that stretched out a bit more.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

8/7/23 July had been difficult. After starting off with a string of losses on closed picks, the month ended at dead breakeven on the basis of a good last two weeks. Just 59% of the picks were winners, and the result was only a breakeven. I marvel at those options tout services who report 1000% gains month after month. But I wonder why they don’t own the world.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/10/23 June was solid, with 25 picks closed at an average theoretical gain of 9.7% on an average holding period of 36 calendar days.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

%d bloggers like this: