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Author: Lee Adler

Beware of Bear Market Crash Potential

Lee Adler

Technical signs of an intermediate bottom forming have broken, and cycle projections now point lower. Multiple failed buy signals mean that the market is currently more vulnerable to a crash than has been the case for a long time. Watch out if the market breaks down on Monday. Here’s what to look for.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Which is Better, Late or Never?

Lee Adler

The screens generated far more sells than buys last week, needless to say. There were 133 final sell signals and just 17 buys. Of those 17, 17 were fixed income ETFs. Time for a little countertrend rally in bonds?

I reviewed all of the charts on the sell side. Many of the charts had been in extended declines, but there were plenty more with new short term sell signals that looked enticing. I chose 7 to add to the list as shorts this week. Since they got hammered on Friday and this morning’s open is looking weak, I will track them based on the average price of this morning’s open and Wednesday’s opening print. This would assume a half entry now, and the other half Wednesday morning. Purely arbitrary SWAG for the entry price. No stops yet. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Interim Update

Lee Adler

Thanks to problems with my Windoze operating system, this will be an interim update, just for existing picks. I hope to have the operating system issues solved ASAP and will follow with a regular update of this report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

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When the Market Is Ready, an Event Will Appear

Lee Adler

Events have triggered a turn in gold. Here’s why it’s likely to stick, and for how long, and how far.    Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Cycles Still Lean One Way, Not t’Other

Lee Adler

I give an very slight edge that the market will go this way on the basis of the 6 month cycle, but other indications suggest that the up phase is ……. ……. ……… It’s not a time for xxxxx xxxxxx, but I’m leaning toward the xxxxxx side, and would press the bets if that’s confirmed. On the other hand, if there’s no xxxxxx this week, then xxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxx would be a good bet.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Dealers Pull In Their Horns

Lee Adler

This report was originally sent yesterday under the wrong headline. 

Mid-July was a period of extreme risk in dealer positioning. The subsequent weeks until October 4 indicated a shift toward deleveraging that could become persistent, and persistently bearish, for both stocks and bonds. Any rallies would be swimming against the tide.  Eventually, they will be exhausted. Here are the pictures of the data that prove this view, and tell us what to do with it.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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Veal Market – Baby Calves Get Slaughtered

Lee Adler

The list got slaughtered last week. At best, my buy side picks were too early, and at worst, flat out wrong. The average loss is now 2.9% with an average holding period of 12 calendar days, including 2 picks that hit stops and were closed out. With the 18 remaining open picks, for those whose buy signals have reversed, I have added tight stops. It boils down to the dreaded “holdin and hopin,” for a rebound and better exit point, but with lines in the sand where I will retreat and regroup. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

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The Big Low

Lee Adler

There are some signs that this is it, and others that say, not so fast, Buster! Let’s sort it out.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Gold Breaks Down, With Long Term Implications

Lee Adler

The expected breakdown has occurred. But most of the short term damage may already be done. Cycle projections only point to as low as xxxx-xxxx, while xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx this morning.   Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Tepid Tax Collections Mean It’s the Supply

Lee Adler

Which stupid Wall Street is finally starting to recognize. You would think that after 3 years of a bond bear market they would have understood sooner. This reminds me of the markets of the late 1960s and 70s where I cut my teeth in this business. Every broker on the planet was shilling bond funds and the new fangled REITs as they all went to hell in a handbasket. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Withholding tax collections strengthened a bit in recent weeks, but not enough to narrow the deficit and meaningfully reduce the flow of Treasury supply. That supply has been gargantuan over the past month. That has caused the market to liquidate both stocks and bonds to absorb the new supply.

That should moderate somewhat in the next few months, but not enough to change the long term bearish outlook. This is an ongoing catastrophe whose effects have begun to show up across all asset classes as leveraged portfolio losses lead to liquidation pressures. Holders of leveraged bonds portfolios are forced to sell not only bonds, but stocks and whatever else they can get their hands on. It has had a deflationary pressure on asset prices.

In this report we look at the charts and the data to explain what’s coming so that you’ll understand what to do about it.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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