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Author: Lee Adler

Classic BTFD Setup Or Not

Lee Adler

This report has the answer and an idea about how to play it.

The 10-12 month cycle may have bottomed in May, with a high due in xxxxxxxxx. I like to focus on the six month cycle, which should be turning up in the near term. That is not quite confirmed, but it’s xxxxx. Any xxxxxxx xxxxxx should xxxxx it. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

With the 6-month cycle due to xxxx xxxxxxxxx soon, I’d place my bets on the xxxxxx here. It looks like a quintessential xxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxx. The 6-month cycle down phase was xxxxxx. That’s often a setup that leads to xxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx in the up phase. Non subscribers click here to access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Beware! Jobs Really Much Weaker Than They Say

Lee Adler

In the early August update we saw that withholding tax collections had gone flat. They have not improved since then. Collections remain weak. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

BLS jobs reports have begun to adjust to that fact with tepid growth reported for August, but the reality is much worse. Over time the numbers will reflect that. But we don’t know when. Nor do we know how the market will react to the news when that adjustment finally comes. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

We do know however, that weak tax collections mean bigger deficits. Bigger deficits mean more supply. For the time being there are no increases scheduled in long term paper during the current quarter or Q4. The supply hits will come in the T-bills. And that often works in favor of stocks as market participants use the bills for collateral. It means more money and more leverage. Stock prices rise, but the system grows increasingly fragile as leverage increases. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

We live in “interesting” times, and the longer this goes on, the more interesting it becomes. There’s opportunity, and there’s risk. This report should help you take advantage of the former and minimize the latter. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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Gold Makes Case for Synchronized Low

Lee Adler

The case for a 9-12 month cycle bottom and resynchronization of the 13-week cycle continues to build. A move xxxx xxxx would support that view and a xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx would confirm. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

I have added three more buys to the miners’ swing picks, bringing the total to five now.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Last Week Was Solid, Adding Longs Now

Lee Adler

The screens produced 29 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days. There were 25 charts with a second sell signal. Those were small numbers on both sides by recent standards. I reviewed all of the charts and found 7 that I liked as buys and no shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

2 existing buys and 1 existing short on the list hit stops last week. After these changes, and including the 7 new picks, there will be 12 longs and 4 shorts on the list this week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The new picks will be added without stops. I have assumed risk mitigation through diversification and small position sizes. I have added or adjusted stops on all of the existing picks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week was a decent week, with an average theoretical gain of 5.7% on an average holding period of 19 calendar days. That compared with an average theoretical gain of 4.2% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days the week before. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Picks closed out in August so far have had an average gain of 3.0% on an average holding period of 28 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

July was a breakeven month. June was strong with 25 picks closed at an average theoretical gain of 9.7% on an average holding period of 36 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

The numbers assume all cash, no leverage, no margin, no options. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Table and charts in subscriber report.  Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

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A Soft Round Bottom, or V for Violence

Lee Adler

Bottoms tend to be ambiguous until the initial thrust off the low. This one is no exception.   Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Here’s Why Gold Needs 2020 Vision

Lee Adler

Short term cycles have bottomed and there are hints of a bottom in the xxxx month cycle. A daily close above xxxx would tend to confirm that. The 13-week cycle would resync with the bigger cycle if that happens. But it’s too early to tell if that would lead to the 6-month cycle getting in gear also. A xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx 2020 would give xxxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxx on that. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I have added two buys to the miners’ swing picks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Alternate download link in case of error message. 

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Here’s Why This Is a No Clickbait Market for Primary Dealers

Lee Adler

Please feel free to carry on with your late summer vacation. So what if the kids go back to school. Why should you have to go back to work! Besides, most of our kids are grown. So sit back and enjoy these pre Labor Day dog days.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Yesterday’s bond market rally appears to be but a brief respite in a relentless trend toward lower prices and higher yields. A reaction rally is nothing new, and isn’t likely to change the fact that a market steadily getting pounded with new supply when dealers are already net long, will continue to see generally lower prices until something changes. Change is xxxxxx xxxxxxxxx current picture, xxxx xxxxx xxxxxx xxxxx xxxxxx future.

That rally in the bond market notwithstanding, there’s no reason to change my long-term xxxxxxxxx view of the bond market. The pressure on bond prices ultimately will exact a price on stocks as well.

However, the key word is “ultimately.” These are not market timing measures. They merely provide context. These measures of primary dealer market risk say yes, there’s risk, but they are not at xxxxxxxxx that suggest an xxxxxxxxxxxxxx that stock prices are xxxxxxxxxxx another major xxxxxxxxxx.

This is just a lukewarm endorsement of the bullish trend in stock prices for most of this year. The pullback of the last month does not appear to be in the context of xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx , either in technical terms or in terms of the liquidity context represented in this data.

All things considered, I can only endorse xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx chart opportunities on xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxthe ledger, as opposed to xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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Weak Week but List Stays Net Positive

Lee Adler

The screens produced 14 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days. There were 97 charts with a second sell signal. I reviewed all of the charts and found 2 that I liked as shorts and no buys. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

3 existing buys and 1 existing short on the list hit stops last week. After these changes, and including the 2 new picks, there will be 10 longs and 5 shorts on the list this week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The new picks will be added without stops. I have assumed risk mitigation through diversification and small position sizes. I have added or adjusted stops on 13 of the existing picks and left two without stops. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week was a a bad week, as my picks from last week were all on the long side and all broke bad, except one. Currently open picks and those closed out last week, show an average theoretical gain of 4.2% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. This was down from a 5.5% average gain last week on an average 23 day holding period.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

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Weaker Than It Should Be Means Worse To Come

Lee Adler

We expected an intermediate top, but as of right now, the market is on the brink of being weaker than it should be in cycle structures. Here’s how it sets up, along with what to look for this week that will tell us whether this will get worse.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Gold and Miners Set Up Ugly

Lee Adler

A 4-week cycle low is overdue but there’s a projection of xxxx for that time frame and xxxx for the 13-week cycle. A daily close below xxxx would create a big top pattern with a conventional measured move implication of xxxx. The miners look even worse.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Alternate download link in case of error message. 

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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