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Author: Lee Adler

Here’s Why This Is a No Clickbait Market for Primary Dealers

Lee Adler

Please feel free to carry on with your late summer vacation. So what if the kids go back to school. Why should you have to go back to work! Besides, most of our kids are grown. So sit back and enjoy these pre Labor Day dog days.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Yesterday’s bond market rally appears to be but a brief respite in a relentless trend toward lower prices and higher yields. A reaction rally is nothing new, and isn’t likely to change the fact that a market steadily getting pounded with new supply when dealers are already net long, will continue to see generally lower prices until something changes. Change is xxxxxx xxxxxxxxx current picture, xxxx xxxxx xxxxxx xxxxx xxxxxx future.

That rally in the bond market notwithstanding, there’s no reason to change my long-term xxxxxxxxx view of the bond market. The pressure on bond prices ultimately will exact a price on stocks as well.

However, the key word is “ultimately.” These are not market timing measures. They merely provide context. These measures of primary dealer market risk say yes, there’s risk, but they are not at xxxxxxxxx that suggest an xxxxxxxxxxxxxx that stock prices are xxxxxxxxxxx another major xxxxxxxxxx.

This is just a lukewarm endorsement of the bullish trend in stock prices for most of this year. The pullback of the last month does not appear to be in the context of xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx , either in technical terms or in terms of the liquidity context represented in this data.

All things considered, I can only endorse xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx chart opportunities on xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxthe ledger, as opposed to xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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Weak Week but List Stays Net Positive

Lee Adler

The screens produced 14 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days. There were 97 charts with a second sell signal. I reviewed all of the charts and found 2 that I liked as shorts and no buys. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

3 existing buys and 1 existing short on the list hit stops last week. After these changes, and including the 2 new picks, there will be 10 longs and 5 shorts on the list this week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The new picks will be added without stops. I have assumed risk mitigation through diversification and small position sizes. I have added or adjusted stops on 13 of the existing picks and left two without stops. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week was a a bad week, as my picks from last week were all on the long side and all broke bad, except one. Currently open picks and those closed out last week, show an average theoretical gain of 4.2% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. This was down from a 5.5% average gain last week on an average 23 day holding period.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

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Weaker Than It Should Be Means Worse To Come

Lee Adler

We expected an intermediate top, but as of right now, the market is on the brink of being weaker than it should be in cycle structures. Here’s how it sets up, along with what to look for this week that will tell us whether this will get worse.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Gold and Miners Set Up Ugly

Lee Adler

A 4-week cycle low is overdue but there’s a projection of xxxx for that time frame and xxxx for the 13-week cycle. A daily close below xxxx would create a big top pattern with a conventional measured move implication of xxxx. The miners look even worse.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Alternate download link in case of error message. 

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Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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One Banking Indicator Is Flashing Bright Red for Stocks

Lee Adler

The signal is coming from the ratio of xxxx xxxx to total bank deposits, as reported weekly in the Fed’s composite banking system data. That ratio is at an all-time record, tying the peak reached when the stock market topped out in December 2021. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

It’s only flashing red, not solid red. It means that we must stop, look, and listen for the next few weeks to see if this signal goes full red stop, or back to flashing yellow. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Other indicators similarly suggest caution. They’re not outright bearish for the big picture, but they’re in position to develop that way in the weeks ahead. By the same toke, they are also in position to break out and go higher. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Taken together, it means that the market is at a significant inflection point. The information coming from the banking data in the weeks ahead should give us a significant signal on the market’s intermediate term direction. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

This report shows current charts so that you can see for yourself. I’ll track this data for you in the weeks ahead as we stay on the lookout for something big. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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I Liked the Buys Better Than the Sells

Lee Adler

The screens produced 36 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days. There were 170 charts with a second sell signal. I reviewed all of the charts on the buy side and about half the sells. Oddly I found 9 charts that I liked on the buy side and none on the sell side. The 9 buys are shown on the summary table below. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

4 existing buys and 2 existing shorts on the list hit stops last week. After these changes, there were 10 remaining active picks on the list of which there are 4 longs and 7 shorts. Including the 9 new picks, there will be 13 longs and 7 shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The new picks will be added without stops. In recent months I have been allowing the picks to age for at least 4 weeks before adding stops. I have assumed risk mitigation through diversification and small position sizes. I have adjusted stops on 8 of the existing picks and left two without stops. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week was a decent week, continuing a decent month. Non-subscribers click here for access. Currently open picks and those closed out last week, show an average theoretical gain of 5.5% on an average holding period of 23 calendar days. 75% of the picks closed last week or still on the list had gains.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

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The Calm Before the Storm

Lee Adler

With half the world on vacation this week, the market seems in a similar mood. Is it the calm before the storm? This report answers the question and shows why. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Gold Sets Up

Lee Adler

There’s currently no downside projection on the 6-7 week cycle. However, a daily close below xxxx would set up a projection of xxxx and a conventional measured move target of xxxx. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Meanwhile, mining picks aren’t being swung. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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All We Need is a Few Good Shorts

Lee Adler

The screens produced 54 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days. There were 118 charts with a second sell signal. Considering that the broad market indicators suggested top formation I was more interested in reviewing the charts on the sell side for short sale candidates. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

While I looked at the buy side, we have enough buys on the list and I started with the thought that I am reluctant to add more. Non-subscribers click here for access.

After visual review, I chose 5 charts to add to the short sale side. These are shown on the table below. Non-subscribers click here for access.

8 existing buys on the list hit stops last week. I also dropped two shorts as of the opening price on August 1. After these changes, there will 15 active picks on the list of which there are 7 longs and 8 shorts including the 5 new ones. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The original 10 have aged enough that I’ve added stops to all of them. The new picks will be added without stops. In recent months I have been allowing the picks to age for at least 4 weeks before adding stops. I have assumed risk mitigation through diversification and small position sizes. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week was a good week, and a good start for the month. Most of the longs on the list did well because they were in the oil sector. I had added them 4 weeks ago when there were numerous buy signals in that sector. Whenever there’s a cluster of signals in a sector, it’s usually a good sign that the group is going to have a move. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Currently open picks and those closed out last week, show an average theoretical gain of 5.7% on an average holding period of 29 calendar days. 67% of the picks closed last week or still on the list had gains. Non-subscribers click here for access.

July had been difficult. After starting off with a string of losses on closed picks, the month ended at dead breakeven on the basis of a good last two weeks. Just 59% of the picks were winners, and the result was only a breakeven. I marvel at those options tout services who report 1000% gains month after month. But I wonder why they don’t own the world. Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/10/23 June was solid, with 25 picks closed at an average theoretical gain of 9.7% on an average holding period of 36 calendar days. The numbers assume all cash, no leverage, no margin, no options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Table in report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports. 

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Under the Big Top

Lee Adler

There were lots of signs that the xxxxxxx cycle topped out last week, but nothing that will signal how weak the down phase will be. It depends on whether a couple of key support lines that are just below current levels, hold or not. This report tells you how long the down phase will last, what it means for the big picture, and the key levels that will tell us what’s next.   Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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