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Author: Lee Adler

Incomprehensible, That’s What You Are

Lee Adler

But First, A Number

Before I get into the withholding tax data for May, the Treasury just posted the following on the heels of the signing of the debt ceiling deal. My reaction? HOLEE COWWWWW!!! Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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Date Security Type Total Offering Total Publicly
Held Maturing		 Net New Cash or
(Pay Down)
06/08/2023 Bills $123,000 $101,998 $21,002
06/06/2023 Bills $164,000 $135,979 $28,021
06/05/2023 Bills $65,000 $25,000 $40,000
06/02/2023 Bills $25,000 $0 $25,000

That’s $95 billion in new supply in 6 days. And that’s only the beginning, whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa oh oh oh oh oh oh oh uh oh. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

You would think that that would leave a mark in T-bill trading, but so far at least, nothing has moved. It might be because the market was already at 5.42, which is 37 bp above the Fed’s RRP rate. Once again, the market leads, the Fed lags. The T-bills should start sucking money out of the Fed’s RRP slush fund. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

It’s all dead money anyway until investors decide that they want to use it for something else. If it stays in the RRPs, yes it’s available to spend on stocks and bonds, but there’s a reason that $2.2 trillion or thereabouts has just sat there for the past year. And if it gets pulled out to go back into the Treasury’s cash account for rebuilding to the desired $600 billion, that cash won’t be spent in the markets, or the economy either. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

That money is dead to me. It won’t be used to support stock and bond prices. As Treasury issuance explodes and the Fed continues to insanely pull $95 billion per month out of the banking system, something will break. That’s a given. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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Swing Trade Chart Picks – Growing Long Side Gains

Lee Adler

Swing trade stock screens produced 102 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the past week. There were 116 charts with a second sell signal.  That’s a virtual tie. Lot’s of signals on both sides, but a preponderance were in the context of rangebound noise, and therefore meaningless. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Last week wasn’t bad performance wise. Including two stopouts and 16 picks still open, the average gain was 5.6% on an average holding period of 19 calendar days, or less than 3 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The list had only one active short. The rest were buys. Non-subscribers click here for access.

There were too many signals this week to visually review all of the charts. I only added 2 picks on the buy side, and 3 shorts. If I had gone through all of the charts, there probably would have been a few more of each, but the list is big enough, so I stopped. Non-subscribers click here for access.

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That Seventies Show

Lee Adler

There are conflicting indications between the broad market averages and cycle screening measures which take the temperature of the market on a micro basis. It suggests that a new Jive Five will be like the Nifty Fifty of the late sixties and 1970s. They kept the market averages perking along while the bulk of stocks were locked in long term bear markets.

That too was an era of high inflation and slow, or no growth.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Gold Gets Closer to the Bottom

Lee Adler

Gold is due for a short term cycle low as soon as this week, but there’s still a 6-7 week cycle projection of xxxx that remains a possibility. And the 9-12 month cycle low is ideally still at least x xxxxxx away. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

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The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Swing Trade Chart Picks – Numbers Lean Bearish, Charts Don’t

Lee Adler

Swing trade stock screens produced 50 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the past week. Four of those were inverse ETFs, for a net bullish total of 46. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

There were 172 charts with a second sell signal. That’s a lot of sell signals, and only one of them was an inverse ETF. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Should we be excited? Given that rangebound markets have a propensity to generate constant whipsaws, I would still take these numbers with a grain of salt. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The goal is to keep from being chewed up in the meat grinder. Lately I’ve managed to do that successfully, but at the same time, the gains have been insignificant. Last week the average gain was 2.7% on an average holding period of 18 calendar days. Six picks were closed out by either deciding to close on the open last Thursday, or by hitting stops. These are shown on the table below (subscriber version). Non-subscribers click here for access.

After 3 of the shorts were closed out, that left one active short and 14 buys. Non-subscribers click here for access.

There were too many signals this week to visually review all of the charts but I looked at most of them, including all 50 buys. The theme again was tech, tech, tech, particularly semiconductors. I added 4 buys to the list, bringing the total of open picks to 18 buys and one short. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I reviewed about 100 of the sells. They were mostly signals in the context of rangebound noise with ambiguous setups. Many of the signals were in health care, real estate, and other interest sensitive sectors. But I saw no setups that were compelling enough to add to the list. There was too much ambiguity in the charts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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Modestly Hedged Dealers, Record Short Hedge Funds Suggest Disaster Ahead

Lee Adler

Primary Dealers remain moderately hedged in their bond portfolios. There’s no sign in their data that disaster is imminent, but they are also not prepared if the bond market continues to go south, as it has been for the past month. And as it is likely to when the debt ceiling is finally lifted, whether before or after default. At that point the market will be crushed with supply. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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Originally, I was a lone voice in the wilderness warning of this eventuality, but big players have joined the chorus recently. The idea seems to be in the process of becoming conventional wisdom. Does that mean that the big players who matter are as well prepared as necessary to prevent the bond market crunch? Non-subscribers, click here for access.

This report gives answers and tells you what to do about it. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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Non Functional GPS Market

Lee Adler

Stocks continue to wander aimlessly within a very weak apparent uptrend. A breakout is not a given. Nor is a downturn. We’ll keep an eye on these technical measures for any tell on the next big move. Here’s what I’m watching, with potential cues. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Gold’s Immaculate Correction

Lee Adler

Gold has apparently entered a 9-12 month cycle down phase, which should remain flat. But it isn’t due to bottom until June 21 at the earliest and as late as October 21. That will be a window of both risk and opportunity. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Swing Trade Chart Picks – Let’s Get Ready to Rumble

Lee Adler

Swing trade stock screens produced 57 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the past week. Five of those were inverse ETFs, for a net bullish total of 52. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

There were 95 charts with a second sell signal. Of those 95 sells, 22 were fixed income ETFs and 19 were foreign market ETFs. Only 54 were individual stocks, and a few of those were foreign stocks. More were interest sensitive utilities. So investors seem to dislike anything related to fixed income. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Overall there was no significant tilt to the signals on individual US stocks that are not directly tied to the fixed income outlook. Non-subscribers click here for access.

If you are interested in precious metals, a number of gold stocks and ETFs showed up on the sell side. I will update the Precious Metals Trader report on Friday morning. Non-subscribers click here for access.

5/8/23 Rangebound markets produce a preponderance of whipsaw signals, which is why I refer to them as meatgrinders. Eventually the market will break out and trend for a while. Until then, the string of small gains and losses is likely to continue. It’s a slow bleed that wears out both long and short traders. But it’s necessary to keep playing the game in order to catch the next big move when it comes.

That said, I have continued to review and select charts that appeared set up for a decent move in either direction, and I’ve been giving them a bit more rope, eschewing stops until the third or fourth week after the pick was made. That has resulted in the current active list having an average gain of 2% on an average holding period of 18 calendar days. It’s nothing to write home about, but given the market’s tight trading range and constant whipsaws, I’ll take it. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The list will have 12 open picks after closing out two shorts as of the open this morning. Of the 12 remaining open, just two are shorts, and 10 are longs. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Upon reviewing the charts with signals, I added 6 buys to the list, to be tracked starting with today’s opening price. I didn’t like any of the setups on the sell side, so added nothing there. The list will be lopsidedly long, which is risky, but it is what it is. I try to review the charts without bias. If I have a bias, it’s to the short side, and I still didn’t see anything I liked in that direction. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The new picks are shown on the table below (subscriber report). I have adjusted or added stops on several of the existing picks. I’ve left the rest stopless to give them time to “ripen.” Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

 

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The Most Widely Forecast Economic Disaster In History

Lee Adler

We look at the charts of the banking and Fed balance sheet data, and current tax collections, in the context of the above heading. The failure of the government to raise the debt limit will mean that the US Government will run out of cash to pay its bills within the next few weeks. The Wall Street cognoscenti, who have no sense, see that it will mean the end of the world. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

I think that AI will end the world before a US technical debt default will. No doubt, given the rabid dogs in charge of the issue in the House of Representatives, there will be a technical default. They don’t care about the consequences, predicted or otherwise, because the vast majority of them are in safe seats backed by voters who don’t care and know even less. The only thing that matters to them is to stick it to the “woke” crowd. A debt default would certainly be one way of sticking a finger in the eyes of the woke. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

So my wild guess is that it will happen. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

But wait! There’s more. And you need to know what that is if you want to play to win. Or at least to save your skin. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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