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Author: Lee Adler

Bailout or Not, Stock Traders Are Should Give the Fed, Treasury, and FDIC the Finger

Lee Adler

The Fed, US Treasury, F-DIC and PPT stepped up to the plate on Sunday to rescue the wildly imprudent big depositors of the Silly Con Valley Bonk. Multiple tech startups had big deposits well in excess of the 250k insurable limit, and we, the great unwashed taxpayers are supposed to bail them out? I guess so.

But stock market indicators currently say, No Way! Eff you! Here’s what’s coming. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Systemic Meltdown Under Way As Dead Bodies Finally Start Surfacing

Lee Adler

This was supposed to be the regular Composite Liquidity Update, but we have a slightly more pressing problem at hand for the opening of banks and markets on Monday. So I will ditch the CLI for a few days and take a quick look at where we stand in terms of the potential for a systemic meltdown that endangers all of us. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

I’ve been following the financial commentariat on Twitter and elsewhere over the weekend, and the excuse making for the failure of SVB is epic. There are also a few good takes about how the bank’s Held to Maturity, and Available for Sale fixed income portfolios were under water. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The Dead Bodies Are Finally Rising to the Surface for All to See

OK, surprise, surprise. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Of course not. There’s no need to get into the particulars of the SVB situation, because it’s merely the tip of the iceberg that we’ve had on our radar for months. I’ve been warning about the dead bodies which would soon be floating to the surface. Well, here we are. Credit Suisse is so far surviving. The Silvergate scam did not, and now SVB (Silicon Valley Bank) has been revealed. Silly con, alright. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The bank runs have begun. The Fed has an emergency meeting scheduled for Monday morning. Is this the end of QT? It has to be. If not, this will get a lot worse. But if it is, the rally that started in the bond market on Friday could get a lot bigger and that could self mitigate the crisis. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

A lot can, and will happen on Monday alone. Here’s what’s critical for you to know, including what to do to protect yourself if you haven’t already. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

As events race ahead of this report, you can follow an intelligent discussion of those events at the Capitalstool message board starting here as of Sunday evening. 

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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Gold On Cusp of Brutal Outlook if This Happens

Lee Adler

Still waiting for confirmation of a 13 week cycle low. It needs to happen, or you won’t want to look at the long term setup.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – 3 Buys, No Shorts

Lee Adler

For the week ended March 3, there were 37 charts with multiple buy signals as of Thursday or Friday, and 33 with multiple sells. The previous week the tally was 11 buys and 113 sells.

Unlike last week, I found 3 charts that I liked. All were longs. They are XXXXXXXXXXXXXX shown on the table below, with charts following. I will track them as of the closing price on Monday, March 6. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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Mixed Bag of Signals Screaming, “Walk This Way”

Lee Adler

Is it a random walk, or just the Ministry of Silly Walks? The S&P 500 remains in limbo, still stuck near the middle of the same range in which it has traded for the past two months. The big trend is flat. It is maddening for everyone.

It’s difficult to trade successfully, so I have been keeping swing trading suggestions to a minimum to avoid getting ground up into hamburger. That will change one day. The trick is to stay alert enough to recognize that change is beginning. As of now, here are the signs to look for this week. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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February Withholding Taxes Say – Fade the Jobs Report!

Lee Adler

It’s that time of the month again. The tax collections are complete for February so we know how the jobs market really did for the month. Meanwhile, the BLS will announce its fictitious jobs number for the month a week from tomorrow, which is a week later than usual.

The BLS bases its estimate on a haphazard and poorly conceived survey of employers, which the BLS then manipulates to the point of uselessness. Furthermore, apparently fewer employers are taking part in the survey, rendering this monthly exercise even less accurate than in years past. When it wasn’t very accurate to begin with. Subscribers, click here to download the report.

BOTTOM LINE: Revenues were weak. The jobs number should be weak. But fade any rally on that, both stocks and bonds, because xxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxx xxxxx. 

Here’s what’s critical for you to know. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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Gold’s Rebound Is Coming!

Lee Adler

The 13 week cycle should form a cycle low here. The cycle projection has been reached; the timing is right; and this is an important support level. Here’s what that means for the longer term outlook, and for the miners.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Can’t Touch This

Lee Adler

For the week ended February 24, there were 11 charts with multiple buy signals as of Thursday or Friday, and 113 with multiple sells. That’s a big number on the sell side, suggesting a change of trend in the market. But the setups weren’t great for entering shorts here. I would expect better setups after the next rebound.

When I looked at the charts with buy signals, none were interesting. On the sell side, the first moves had been made, and this didn’t look like a good entry point. I’ll wait for the next setup where there are charts that show rebounds to resistance with new short term sell signals.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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Warning! Top Formation In Progress

Lee Adler

The evidence is growing that the market is in the process of completing xxxx month and xxxx month cycle tops. But first, xxxxxx xxxxxxx x x xxxx as short term cycles xxxx xxxx.

 Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Here’s Why There Will Never Be Bull Markets Until This One Thing Happens

Lee Adler

I received some great questions from Ken up in Canada. I want to use them as a jumping off point for trying a different, hopefully simpler format today on a subject we all know and love.

The Fed Balance Sheet.

OK, I kid, I kid. We may know it, or not, but we sure don’t love it. And this format probably isn’t any simpler. But I’ll try.

So let’s start with the essence of simplicity. In this report, I will attempt to explain why:

There will never be a long running bull market in stocks or bonds until xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx. And I don’t just mean xxxxx xxxxx . xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxx x xxxx.

Here’s why, including a Q&A with Chat GPT, the Sergeant Schultz of Fin Tech.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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