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Author: Lee Adler

Macro Liquidity Says No Way Jerray!

Lee Adler

Bulletin: The US Treasury just announced another T-bill paydown. That brings the one week total, April 4-11, to $55 billion. That’s more than enough in the short term to offset negative macro liquidity drivers. This is the April tax season effect on steroids already, and it isn’t even April 15 yet. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

New game, new rules. In this report, I want to attempt to show you in more pictures and fewer words (hard for me), where things stand in terms of macroliquidity, as we embark on this new journey into the unknown. Unknown not just to us, but especially to clueless policymakers. After all, they’re the ones who created this mess in the first place. Yet, Wall Street thinks that they know how to fix it. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Since we no longer have the benefit of them knowing, and telling us, the full scope of policy in advance, we now have to pay even closer attention to the liquidity flows. Our hope is that that is good enough. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

As we know, money talks. Central Bank BS walks. Talk is cheap. Markets can’t and don’t anticipate the future. Money moves the markets. Follow the money. Read and react. That’s the name of the new game. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

So here are my readings on what I believe are critical measures that will help to give us a bit of clarity on where we are now and where this mess might be headed. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Where we’re headed in liquidity is still xxx xxxxxxx. The stock and bond market rallies are xxxing that. That is xxxxxxxxxxx over the long haul. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Yes, we know there are xxxxxxx that will promote xxxxxxx at xxxxxxxxxx. That’s particularly true now with the effect of April Treasury paydowns. But once that cash has run through the system, usually around the end of May, xxxxxxxx xxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Will it even last that long? While the liquidity measures in the weeks ahead will help us to understand the context, we must rely on the Technical Analysis for shorter term timing. In terms of the big picture, the forces of liquidity aren’t xxxxxxxxx xxx. The hope that the Fed either will pivot, or already has, are xxxx the fumes that the markets are running on right now. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Again, this xxxxxxx sustainable. I might be a little xxxxx under the circumstances, but with a trigger finger. I’m not xxxxx anything, and not ready to get xxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

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First, the Rally, Then …

Lee Adler

Broadly speaking, not so much yet. I’m avoiding shorting for sure, but here’s what else we need to put more than a few long toes in the water. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Play By Play On the New Rules of the Game

Lee Adler

The game has changed and there’s not even a pitch clock. But there is a bond market loss clock. Right now, it’s on a timeout. The Fed has given it a lifeline and the Treasury will stepping up with its usual seasonal help in April.   Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Money is the Fed’s game, but not even the Fed knows what’s coming next. It used to be that it kind of knew, and so did we. Rule Number One, “Don’t fight the Fed,” was easy to follow because the Fed told us in advance exactly what it would do, week in and week out, month in and month out. For 12 years, following QE to ever higher asset prices was a no-brainer. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

No more. The Fed is flummoxed, a victim of its own blind hubris. So now it’s making up willy-nilly firefighting tactics on the fly. Under the circumstances, how do we predict what’s coming? How do we trade that which isn’t known. Do we just guess? Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Now, because it’s always about following the money. While we know less now about how that will look in the months ahead, it’s ditto for everybody else. The market will not be able to anticipate policy correctly. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Not that it ever did. I’ve observed through the last two decades especially, that the market follows the money. It doesn’t lead it. The market responds most forcefully and persistently to actual changes in the level of liquidity, not to speculation about what the Fed will do and when will it do it. Money talks and Wall Street BS walks. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

So, in theory, if we follow the money in a timely way, we should still be able to stay on top of the game, to react correctly in time, if not in advance of what’s coming.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

As a result, I’ve been thinking about and experimenting with better ways to get critical information out to you. I want it to be faster, shorter, and more on point. In the bad old days of QE, things were different because the Fed telegraphed what was coming for weeks and months in advance. Now, they don’t know, so neither do we. So, like the Fed, we need to be reactive, because the unknowns coming at us are greater than the knowns. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The trick will be to react quickly and correctly when we see actual changes in liquidity flows. One of the most important ways to do that, will be, as it was before, tracking the Fed’s weekly balance sheet statement.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Looking at the data we have now, we know that for the next 6 weeks, the markets should xxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx xx xxxxx, and that’s bxxxxish. But sell in xxxxxxx xxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Here’s why, and what that means for investors. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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Gold Takes a Breather Before Lunar Launch

Lee Adler

All signs point to gold entering a consolidation phase that could last xxxxxxxxx. The 13-17 week cycle projection has dropped to xxxxxx which xxxxx xxxx xxxxx xxxxxxx. The 9-12 month cycle should be xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx , with the xxxxxxx phase due to xxx xxxx xxx xxxxxxxxx xxxx period. I’ve added another mining pick to swing along with three already on the list. No stops. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Traders, Take Your Naps

Lee Adler

For the week ended March 28, there were 30 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days. There were 5 multiple sells. Non-subscribers click here for access. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Two weeks ago there were 3 buys and 482 sells. But the Fed changed the game a few days later, and all those sell signals were turned on their heads. As I wrote in the Liquidity Trader analysis that weekend, given the uncertainties around just what current monetary policy even is, let alone what the effects will be, I wanted to stand aside and watch for a week. At least. Now that things have shaken out a bit, it’s time to take another look at the individual charts to see if anything looks good for a trade.

Nothing did on the short side. And the longs were completely uninspiring. The one that I liked is dull, but the chart has room for a pop. That’s xxxx. Non-subscribers click here for access.

All of the shorts that were on the list save one, hit their stops and were dropped as of that point. There’s one left. I adjusted the stop on that.

That’s all for this week. Yawn.

I think I’ll take a nap.

Table and charts below (subscriber version).  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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Fed’s Reaction to the Big Mahoff Panic Ain’t Your Daddy’s QE

Lee Adler

Last week I wrote that the Fed is playing a new game and nobody knew the rules. I felt like I needed a week to get a handle on what to expect.

I was doing the research and I intended to post yesterday, but Excel got cranky with the data and I spent hours hunting down a glitch. Frustrating. Thanks, Microsoft!

At least enough time has transpired that we’re starting to get an idea of the impact of the Fed’s new game.

First things first. The Fed’s new emergency lending programs are not bullish. They may stop the bleeding for a while, but they are definitely not the same thing as “old fashioned QE.”

Here’s why, and what that means for investors. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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Watch Out For This If the Market Comes Unstuck

Lee Adler

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 3971. It first traded at this level on May 10 of last year. Since then the index has never been more than 360 points above or 480 points below that level. The index has traded through that price on 26 days since then. The current setup is hinting at the likely direction of the breakout. Here’s what comes next. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Gold Set For High Base Breakout

Lee Adler

The 13-17 week cycle projection has risen to xxxx. That implies a long term high base breakout ahead. Shorter cycles are due for a breather first. I’ve added another mining pick to swing along with two already on the list.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Show Me the Money, Jerry!

Lee Adler

For the week ended March 20, there were 22 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days. There were 200 multiple sells. The prior week there were 3 buys and 482 sells. But the Fed changed the game last week, and by yesterday, on a standalone daily basis there were 44 buys and 35 sells. As I wrote in the Liquidity Trader analysis over the weekend, given the uncertainties around just what current monetary policy even is, let alone what the effects will be, I want to stand aside and watch for a week. At least.

Table and charts below (subscriber version).  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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Massive Fed Monetary Injection Changed the Technical Picture

Lee Adler

The Fed injected nearly $300 billion into the banking system last week. That put in place at least a temporary detour for stocks. That detour will be redirected this week as a result of the FOMC circus and Powell Dog and Pony Show. Here’s what to look for, and what to do about it.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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