Author: Lee Adler

For the week ended March 28, there were 30 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days. There were 5 multiple sells. Non-subscribers click here for access. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Two weeks ago there were 3 buys and 482 sells. But the Fed changed the game a few days later, and all those sell signals were turned on their heads. As I wrote in the Liquidity Trader analysis that weekend, given the uncertainties around just what current monetary policy even is, let alone what the effects will be, I wanted to stand aside and watch for a week. At least. Now that things have shaken out a bit, it’s time to take another look at the individual charts to see if anything looks good for a trade.

Nothing did on the short side. And the longs were completely uninspiring. The one that I liked is dull, but the chart has room for a pop. That’s xxxx. Non-subscribers click here for access.

All of the shorts that were on the list save one, hit their stops and were dropped as of that point. There’s one left. I adjusted the stop on that.

That’s all for this week. Yawn.

I think I’ll take a nap.

Table and charts below (subscriber version).  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 3971. It first traded at this level on May 10 of last year. Since then the index has never been more than 360 points above or 480 points below that level. The index has traded through that price on 26 days since then. The current setup is hinting at the likely direction of the breakout. Here’s what comes next. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

For the week ended March 20, there were 22 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days. There were 200 multiple sells. The prior week there were 3 buys and 482 sells. But the Fed changed the game last week, and by yesterday, on a standalone daily basis there were 44 buys and 35 sells. As I wrote in the Liquidity Trader analysis over the weekend, given the uncertainties around just what current monetary policy even is, let alone what the effects will be, I want to stand aside and watch for a week. At least.

Table and charts below (subscriber version).  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

For the week ended March 10, there were 3 charts with multiple buy signals as of Thursday or Friday. There were 482 multiple sells. It’s like the night that Wilt scored 100 points. It only happened once.

The prior week there were 33 buys and 37 sells. The week before that, the tally was 11 buys and 113 sells. That was a big number on the sell side, suggesting a change of trend in the market. But the setups didn’t look great for entering shorts there.  Or so I thought at the time.

That was the week to get short. I missed it. I compounded the mistake by choosing 3 longs last week. Needless to say, they did not do well, as tracked from the March 6 closing price. I will close them out as of today’s closing price. The list ended the week with a loss of 0.6% on an average 12 calendar day holding period.

I cannot visually review 482 charts. I am looking at as many as possible. As I look at these, the question I have is whether it is too late to go short and do we have the stomach for what are likely to be extreme moves in both directions.

We’ve been in a trading range. Trading ranges are meat grinders. Trends with 3% price moves a day are meat cleavers.  Right now we have a little of both. Furthermore, there’s just too much noise. Support levels are being challenged and broken, but I have no sense that these breaks will stick. There’s too much mindless intervention, and knee jerk reaction, to have any confidence here.

That said, as I went through more than 100 charts in alphabetical order, there were a few that were  ordinary, even stodgy looking, bearish setups. I am adding these to the list to short. I will start tracking these as of today’s (March 13) closing price.

The next buy round of buy signals should be scalpable. I will be on the lookout for those. I’d like to see a nice bounce that can be shorted. But the next round of good sell signals will be a cycle away. And the current round has come too late for my liking. That said, I’ll take my chances with the 4 that I’ve selected for now.

Table and charts below (subscriber version).  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.