Author: Lee Adler

The market’s little pullback last week didn’t break anything. The short term trend is in apparent consolidation while the intermediate term still looks to be upward.

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Cycles– The 13 week cycle high is ideally due on xxxxxxxx, but up to 4 weeks of variance would be normal depending on the skew of longer cycles. The mid week pullback last week invalidated prior cycle projections. The target is now xxxxxxx. Short term cycles appear to have peaked. I expect a little more xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx before the rest of the 13 week cycle up phase plays out. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail – The rally faces 3 resistance trends. The first is short term, running from 3xxx to xxxxx this week. The next is the long term trend from the market top in January 2022. That slides from xxxx to xxxx this week. Finally there’s an intermediate trendline running from xxxx to xxxx. If those are cleared, the first target is likely to be the xxxx xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

To reverse this, the market would first need to smash the lower short term uptrend channel line running from xxxx to xxxx this week. If they stay above that, then ultimately we might expect 2 more thrusts to a target of xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart – The market has cleared the downtrend line from the January 2022 peak, but faces more resistance around xxxx. It must get past that to signal with greater certainty that the bear cycle is complete. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart –The market will need to end January above xxxx to break the major downtrend channel. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures – I now rate the short term pattern xxxxxxx, while the intermediate term pattern deserves xxxxxxx x xxxxxx rating. It suggests xxxxxxx trading. So we wait for a xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

The 3 picks on the list last week had a zero week. The average change as of 10:20 AM ET this morning was +0.1% on an average holding period of 9 calendar days. But I do have one new long to add to the list that looks very interesting.

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Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

It wasn’t a good week for the list. All but one pick got stopped out, mostly as intended, but the end result was an average gain of 1.4% with an average holding period of 12 calendar days last week. And that win was all due to one big winner.

That left just one pick open, a buy that did not participate in Friday’s rally, but whose chart still appears to have potential. In spite of that, I’ve added a stop just below the low, just in case.

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For picks closed out in December, the average gain was 1.8% with an average holding period of 15 calendar days, that is, half a month. Since January 2022, the average gain has been 1.6% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. I went off course in October, in particular, and November, and the list got hammered, but December saw a bit of recovery. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I have recently tweaked the screening methodology over the past two weeks for the purpose of improving overall performance, but there are no guarantees. This is an ongoing experiment. You should make your own judgments accordingly. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Meanwhile, for the week ended January 6, even with Friday’s strong tape there were just 5 charts with second or third buy signals as the week ended, and 28 with second or third sells. However, that includes Thursday’s sell signals. Most of those whipsawed on Friday. This data doesn’t have a strong bias either way. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The only charts that I liked were two picks on the short side, which are noted on the table below (subscriber report). All picks closed out last week, along with the one that wasn’t, are also shown on the table below. After adding the new picks, there will be 1 buy and 2 shorts.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

All picks closed out last week, along with the six that weren’t, are shown on the table below. After adding the new pick, there will be 1 buy and 4 shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.