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Author: Lee Adler

Stock Market Has Perfect Lineup for Fall Classic

Lee Adler

Cycles now appear to be aligned to the upside just in time for the playoffs. . Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Gold Gets Ready to Rumble 9/12/24

Lee Adler

Cycles appear to be back in gear to the upside with the 9-12 month cycle in xxxx xxxx. Resistance is indicated around xxxx. Trend should accelerate if they clear that. However, a daily close below xxxx would suggest at least an intermediate term top. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

I have added 5 mining picks to swing.

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Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gate keeper are blocking Liquiditytrader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!” THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Primary Dealer Clown Show Danger Pales in Comparison to Hedgie Daredevils

Lee Adler

Primary Dealers remain modestly net xxxx the bond market, including both their securities portfolios and futures hedges. That’s a problem, considering not only what’s going on right now, but what has been going on for the past 3 months. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Technically Treasuries are near an important inflection point on the charts. Repo shows extended leverage among dealers. They are slightly xxxxx overall, which isn’t bullish for the big picture. They are leveraged to the hilt and they’re taking hits. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Hedge fund positions in Treasuries have blown the basement out of their record short position. The mind boggling short position is based on a hedged carry trade that just keeps getting bigger and bigger. This is partly a function of ever increasing supply. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

That has the potential to trigger an unstable unwinding. So far it hasn’t. The rally goes on and their short position keeps getting bigger. It’s not clear how long it will be until this breaks. We must remain vigilant for a sign, whether it be in the liquidity data or the technical side. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Between both the dealers and the hedge funds we see these enormous positions, extreme leverage, and one-way hedged bets. Whatever way this breaks, the move should be big and fast in both bonds and stocks. However, we don’t yet have a tell on which market takes the hit, and which takes off. Or maybe with the extreme leverage, they both implode. Something big is coming, but when and how are still unclear. We need to be vigilant for something big. Here’s what to do in the meantime while we lie in wait, ever watchful. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Read My List, No New Picks

Lee Adler

As of September 9 closing prices, the list had an average gain of + 4.7% on an average holding period of 20 calendar days. That was up from an average gain of + 3.4% on an average holding period of 16 calendar days the week before. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Current screens yielded 413 short-term buys and 144 short-term sells. After applying long term trend structure and intermediate term filters, there were 44 buys and 18 sells. I reviewed the charts and elected not to add any new picks this week. As a result, the list is down to 10 open picks to start the week, down from 18 on our last look. Non-subscribers click here for access.

To view list and charts of open picks, Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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How Deep Was My Valley

Lee Adler

I was looking higher because the cycle analysis pointed that way. But instead, Kaboom. That has huge implications for the coming wave. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Here’s Hard Evidence that the Slowing Economy Narrative is False

Lee Adler

Recently, the narrative used to explain or excuse the recent performance of US stocks and bonds is that the US economy is slowing. The crystal ball gazers are seeing something that just isn’t there in the real time data. If anything, the economy has started running hot again. Whether it undergoes a normal short-term economic pause here, or breaks out into runaway growth, remains to be seen. But there’s no sign of any material slowing in real time tax collections data. Non-subscribers, click here for the rest of the story.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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Gold a Hold While Miners Blasted

Lee Adler

The selloff on Tuesday didn’t quite do enough to confirm the forecast of a top here. A drop below 2470 would tend to do so. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gate keeper are blocking Liquiditytrader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!” THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Nothing to Add This Week

Lee Adler

As of August 30, the list had an average gain of + 3.4% on an average holding period of 16 calendar days. That was down from an average gain of + 4.7% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days the week before. The list is back to 17 open picks to start the week, down from 24 on our last look. This is still a lot, so I will refrain from adding anything new for now. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Current screens yielded 283 short-term buys and 471 short-term sells. However, after applying long term trend structure and intermediate term filters, there were 29 buys and 15 sells. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Current screens yielded 168 short-term buys and 649 short-term sells. That’s a complete turnaround from previous weeks. However, after applying long term trend structure and intermediate term filters, there were 44 buys and 35 sells. After reviewing the charts, I added 2 buys and 5 shorts to the list. Non-subscribers click here for access.

To view list and charts of open picks, Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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Withholding Tax Collections Support Sufficient Liquidity Growth

Lee Adler

Withholding tax collections grew enough in August to support existing market trends. Non-subscribers, click here for the rest of the story.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Meanwhile, after my repeated warnings that the tax collection data did not support the BLS monthly nonfarm payrolls fiction, the other shoe dropped. The BLS announced a downward benchmark revision of 800,000 jobs for the year. This was due to an average monthly overstatement of “only” 67,000 jobs per month. Non-subscribers, click here for the rest of the story.

And let’s not forget the monthly revisions, which are often material. What a joke. I’ll stick with analyzing the tax data, which tells us all we need to know about the all-important Federal revenues in real time. That, secondarily, tells us something about the US economy, and how much excess liquidity it might be generating from business profits and employment income. Excess income becomes excess liquidity in bank accounts and money market funds, available to buy stocks and bonds.

Regardless of how misleading the jobs reports may be, nominal revenue growth, from both jobs and inflation, has been strong enough to restrain the growth of Treasury supply and enable the US Treasury to build an enormous hoard of cash while cutting bond and note issuance.

That doesn’t change the fact that there’s still a tsunami of supply coming. But if the mix emphasizes T-bills, the market can readily fund that through using the T-bills as collateral for repo at 97% of face value.

Of course, whether it will do that or not depends on psychology, which we consider with the analysis of ratios of stock prices to liquidity in other reports.

There’s not enough evidence yet in the tax data to suggest that that strong revenue growth holding back the growth of Treasury issuance has changed. Withholding tax revenue rebounded in August enough to xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx July. There’s enough revenue to xxxxxxxxx xxxxx expected T-bill xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx result of September estimated tax collections. The Treasury has already posted a modest T-bill paydown for this week. We’ve estimated that xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxx, once the quarterly tax windfall is collected on September 16.

To see the data for August visualized and learn what to expect …

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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Another Higher Projection for Stock Prices

Lee Adler

The market still looks set to go higher.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Shifting patterns now put the focus on the 13-week cycle. The 13-week cycle up phase should run until xxxx xxxx. A new projection on that cycle points to xxxx.  Non subscribers click here to access.

The market has done enough to suggest that a new 10-12 month cycle up phase has begun. The cycle high is not ideally due until xx xxxxx.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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