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Author: Lee Adler

Federal Tax Collections Now Say Damned If They Do, or if They Don’t

Lee Adler

Tax collections have leveled off at a negative year to year rate. The Fed has gone to Congress begging for fiscal support for the US economy, as a result.  Without a deal to raise spending, the economy will continue to languish, and the Fed will continue to print money to support the markets.

Ironically, if and when a new pandemic relief spending program is enacted, that would be bearish.

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If Bonds Sell Off, Dealers are in Trouble and So Is the System

Lee Adler

Primary dealers have maintained huge and heavily leveraged long bond positions. They are only lightly hedged. Just today, the bond market is threatening to reverse the long term downtrend in yields/uptrend in prices. It’s bad news for the bond market, and for the system as a whole. And that includes stocks.

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Gold’s Constructive Consolidation

Lee Adler

Here’s where to look for gold’s constructive consolidation to turn up. Meanwhile, I’ve added another pick to our list of miners.

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Tick Tock – Market Is a Broken Clock

Lee Adler

Mixed cyclicality has led to a rangebound market. There’s no sign that that will change this week. But look out if it does!

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The Endless Bull is No More, Bear Awaits

Lee Adler

The outlook for the most of the rest of October is bullish. But it’s not an endless bull any more.

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Looking For A Few New Gold Mining Picks to Swing

Lee Adler

The setup is propitious for a short term low risk entry. There are a few nice looking plays.

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The Bulls Are Back

Lee Adler

An up day on Monday would confirm that the short term downtrend is broken. This report gives you the key support and resistance levels, and what to expect if they’re broken. I’ve added 8 chart picks, 5 longs and 3 shorts, to take advantage of a move either way.

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Mr. Minuschin’s Erection To Boost The Election

Lee Adler

We have known for a couple of months that there would be a mountain of Treasury supply hitting the market at the end of September. We also knew that Fed QE would be far from adequate to absorb this supply. So I have expected something bearish for stocks at the end of September. This could spill over into the first week of October.

But then things get hairy for bears, with potentially happy days for bulls. Unfortunately, we have a little problem this week. There’s no visibility. We don’t know what they have planned for the next couple weeks. That’s different from usual, where we can usually see ahead for a week or two because we know the Fed’s QE schedule, and also pretty much know how much Treasury supply to expect.

Now, thanks to the exigencies of the past pandemiconomic US Treasury fund raising back in March and April, we don’t have that luxury on Treasury supply, which forces us to surmise some things.

Here they are.

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Gold “Should” Bottom Here

Lee Adler

There’s good reason to think that a 13 week cycle low is forming despite lower projections.

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Macro Liquidity Rising But Other Issues Intrude

Lee Adler

Composite liquidity continues to rise, but at a slower pace than in the second quarter as the Fed has slowed QE. That reduces the cash flowing into Primary Dealer accounts, which in turn contributes to a slowing in secondary liquidity drivers.

“Slowing” is a relative word, however. Historically, the numbers remain gargantuan.

No, something else is holding the market back. Here’s what that something is, and what we’re going to do about it.

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