It’s official. QE New has reversed 5 months of previous Fed balance sheet normalization. Here’s what the “new normal” means for your investments. It might not be what you think.
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The Fed’s new TOMO has already hit a quarter trillion. It may not be QE in name, but it is in fact. And make no mistake. Regardless of what they call it, it will become official and permanent. Here’s a look back on how we knew it was coming and a look ahead on what to expect from it for the markets.
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I have been warning for months that once the debt ceiling was lifted the money markets would tighten dramatically. It’s happening. Here’s a rundown of the banking indicators, how they led up to this, what they’re telling us now, and my recommendation on what to do about it.
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Normalization is dead. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is all she wrote. A little bit of Fed POMO won’t be enough to save the bond market, or stocks for that matter.
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In July we saw that the market was at a record overbought extreme versus liquidity. I warned then that the bullishness we saw earlier this summer would be short lived. The market has corrected a bit. This report shows why that warning remains as applicable as ever.
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The uptrend is particularly hot in loans to non bank financial institutions. That is composed largely of margin and repo loans. It’s clear that this borrowing has been a prime driver of the rallies in stocks and bonds. Live by leverage, die by leverage.
The data shows that the end is nigh.
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The Fed has ended its balance sheet bloodletting. QT is kaput. No more “normalization.” Now abnormal is the norm. But while the Fed will no longer suck, the US Treasury will. It’s no coincidence.
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Yesterday, I posted this report with the intro from the June report. This version corrects that error. I apologize for the confusion!
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Loan growth is red hot. And it’s all based on speculation. But lenders act as if there’s no risk in all these new loans. Here’s the proof, and what it means.
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The joke is on Wall Street, investors, and yes, the Fed itself. But you will be prepared to take advantage because you read this report.
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Lee Adler
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