Category: Fed, Central Bank and Banking Macro Liquidity

The Composite Liquidity Indicator remains near a record extreme, and that’s scary. Here’s what you need to know.

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The Composite Liquidity Indicator is back to where it was last February and September. Does it mean the same thing now?

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Despite the noise about the Fed possibly cutting interest rates this week, the reality of the market says otherwise. If the Fed does cut, it could lead to disaster.

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Macro liquidity growth has slowed to a crawl. The Fed and its cohort major central banks are a negative factor on balance. But runaway financial market speculation is driving a big surge in bank lending to finance securities purchases, and that’s providing self-sustaining liquidity. But debt driven trends eventually break badly. This report looks at the keys to showing when this trend is reversing and gives you a strategy for maximizing the current trend.

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The Fed announced at its January meeting that “they panicking” (apologies to Trading Places) and that neither rate increases nor the shrinkage of the balance sheet are on autopilot any longer. The Fed says it will adjust both as the economy and “financial conditions,” aka the stock market, dictate.

So far, neither has given them an excuse to loosen, although the economic priesthood and the Wall Street captured media have repeatedly characterized the economy as “softening.”  Softening is not the same as shrinking. That’s what the Fed is looking for. Although mostly it’s worried about a stock market decline. No sign of that lately either.

The question before us now is whether the Fed’s change in approach will pre-empt the crash I’ve been expecting. Here’s the answer, and I show you exactly why that is.

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