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Category: 1 – Liquidity Trader- Money Trends

How Fed and Treasury policy, Primary Dealers, real time Federal tax collections, foreign central banks, US banking system, and other factors that affect market liquidity, interact to drive the financial markets. Focus on trend direction of US bonds and stocks. Resulting market strategy and tactical ideas. 4-5 in depth reports each month. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Fed and US Treasury Are Ensuring that Macro Liquidity Stays Bullish

Lee Adler

What else is new?

Tomorrow, the Fed talks. But Fed talk is cheap. The Fed wants you to think that talk – its talk – moves the markets, or keeps them stable. That’s just utter bull. You and I know that from simply tracking the data for as many years as we have. Bottom line, as always, is, money talks, and the Fed’s BS is just that.

All of the discussion and paralysis by analysis in the media is a sideshow. Mass confusion that consistently misses the point. It all boils down to one simple fact. When the Fed pumps money into the financial markets via the Primary Dealers, stock prices follow the money. Everything else that happens in the economy is tangential and irrelevant to trading.

I started tracking and charting the data that goes into this in 2002, courtesy of the NY Fed print shop. Here’s the chart that started it all. It was made famous in 2012 when Rick Santelli featured it in one of his rants on CNBC.

Many, many people have copied this in the years since I began publishing it about 17 years ago. But they all fail one basic test. Here’s what it is and why it matters. It matters so much that it could mean that the end of the financial system as we know it is at hand.

The facts, figures, outlook, and strategy are reserved for subscribers. Click here to download the report.

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When The Fed Doesn’t Want Us To Know How Bad It Is

Lee Adler

This is what it does. It stops publishing good data, and either substitutes no data, or shitty data.

I rely on the Fed’s weekly data in my research. I want to know what’s going on as close to real time as possible. It’s simple. As traders, we need current data, or as close to current as possible.

The Fed’s new format H6 money supply release is utterly useless. They stopped weekly publication.  As of February 23, the report now includes only monthly averages, and is released only on the 4th Tuesday of the month for the preceding month. So current data, as the average for January, is effectively Jan 15.  This is virtually useless.

When the Fed doesn’t want you to know what’s going on in near real time, this is what it does.

Fortunately, there’s a perfectly good workaround.

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Treasury’s Bond Market Rescue – Get Ready For the PONT Spread Bulge

Lee Adler

The US Treasury’s attempt to rescue the Treasury market began in mid February. It’s not going well. They’ve managed to stop the hemorrhaging. Prices have stopped falling over the past two weeks. But they haven’t turned the tide.

And that’s the problem. Primary Dealer inventories accumulated since last March are way under water. The dealers are the walking dead. If bond prices don’t rally, the Fed will have no choice but to start yield control and infinite QE, and it will need to do it soon.

The Fed must always maintain the appearance that their Primary Dealer strawmen, are alive and functioning as market makers as always. There’s no alternative. This month, the Fed and US Treasury have begun colluding to prime the pump, and they’re about to aim a firehose of liquidity at the problem.

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Infinite QE Is Coming Despite Skyrocketing Economic Growth

Lee Adler

Last month, I headlined this report, “We Don’t Need No Effin’ Stimmy.” That’s even more true now. Withholding tax collections are skyrocketing. It’s good news for the economy, but terrible news for the financial markets.

We are only days away from Infinite QE.

Here’s how we know, and why it won’t be bullish this time.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Available at this link for legacy Treasury subscribers.

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days!

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Here’s The Evidence That The US Treasury is Bailing Out Stricken Primary Dealers

Lee Adler

The bear market in Treasuries that started in August devolved into an outright crash last week. Meanwhile, evidence shows that cash in Primary Dealer accounts has exploded to the highest level in history, with the biggest weekly increase in history. There’s also circumstantial evidence that that cash came directly from US Treasury, away from the publicly visible means that we already saw last week.

We are not surprised there’s a crisis. You and I have been watching the situation deteriorate for months. My first guess was that the trouble would start when the 10 year yield crossed 0.8%, That was premature. It was just a preliminary. Then I guessed it would be 1%. Sure enough, within a few weeks after crossing that level, things deteriorated rapidly into last week’s climax.

While the Fed sat on its hands, saying, “Nothing to see here, all is well,” the US Treasury sent in the cavalry. As I covered in the bulletins I sent you over the past week, the Treasury has announced $160 billion in T-bill paydowns. These put cash directly into the accounts of those who hold the expiring bills. This includes dealers, banks, and big investment firms of all types.

Two of those paydowns, totaling $96 billion settled on February 23 and 25. The Treasury, no doubt working with the Fed, absolutely wants the crash in bond prices to reverse. They know damn well that the stability of the system is at stake here. I believe that we have passed the point of no return. They must get Treasury prices back up, or else.

The Treasury will almost certainly continue these cash injections. They still have plenty of money left to do it. It is still sitting on $1.38 trillion in cash.

But oddly, dealer cash accounts rose by more, and Treasury cash fell by more, than what we can account for with these paydowns, and the other things we know about. Here’s the evidence, the implications of it, and a strategy to potentially profit from the coming crisis.

The facts, figures, outlook, and strategy are reserved for subscribers. Click here to download the report.

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US Treasury Injects Another $30 Billion Into Market

Lee Adler

The US Treasury announced today that it would inject another $30 billion into the markets, in an attempt to forestall systemic meltdown. It will pay down another $30 billion in T-bills on March 4.

This brings the 2 week total to $155 billion and it is NOT ENOUGH. Investors and dealers got back $55 billion in cash on Tuesday and another $41 billion today, but they are not buying longer term paper with that cash. The continue to hold short term paper. Some bought stocks yesterday, but today margin calls against losses in longer term Treasuries have spread into stocks.

I have been forecasting this since the bond market turned last summer. The process is unfolding as expected. We had guessed that once the 10 year yield rose above 1%, the problems would start and cascade as bond prices fell and highly leveraged dealers got slaughtered.

Because these massive cash injections from the Treasury are not stemming the meltdown, the Fed is likely to follow up with its own intervention.

This could have an effect opposite to the one desired. It could trigger a collapse in market confidence. Instead of buying more paper, dealers might opt to use the cash to pay down debt and deleverage.

It’s likely at this point that they are approaching zero capital. At this point, they are merely straw front men for the Fed.

I will post updated reports for Liquidity Trader subscriber, with more details and charts, and an ongoing look forward on what to expect on Friday and/or Saturday. For access, take a risk free trial today.

For more on this see Treasury Announces It Will Inject ANOTHER $25 Billion For $125 Billion Weekly Total.

Also:

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Treasury Announces It Will Inject ANOTHER $25 Billion For $125 Billion Weekly Total

Lee Adler

The Treasury is injecting still more cash into the market, on top of the $96 billion it already staged last week. It announced on Tuesday (Feb 23) that it will do a third round of T-bill paydowns, this for $25 billion, settling on March 3. This is on top of the $55 billion that is settling today, February 23, and the $41 billion to be settled on Thursday, February 25.

This means that the US Treasury will have injected a total of $125 billion in cash into the market in a week.

These announcements have done no good so far. The prices of longer term Treasuries continue to crash, as this chart of the 20 year Treasury bond ETF shows. It remains to be seen if the actual settlements of the cash, starting today, will help.

As collateral calls go out to dealers, the selling has begun to impact stock prices, as I have long forecast would occur. The crisis that I have warned about is upon us.

Do not be lulled into a false sense of security by the sanguinity of Jaysus Powell and his henchmen at the Fed and in the Wall Street media establishment.  The financial system is yet a again at an existential crossroads, and the Fed has yet to indicate that it understands the seriousness of the problem that it has caused with its ever larger and larger systemic bailouts and encouragement of ever increasing moral hazard.

At some point the problem becomes too big to rectify.

To stay ahead of these developments read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days!

The balance of this report is from our last update. 

The Treasury is spending this money out if its $1.6 trillion cash hoard.  Treasury officials are obviously in a panic over the plunge in Treasury note and bond prices that accompanies the surge in the 10 year Treasury yield.

With good reason.

This will have an effect similar to Fed QE. Treasury paydowns put cash directly into the accounts of the dealers, banks, and investors who hold the expiring paper. The paydown of the expiring paper will simultaneously create a shortage of paper in which to reinvest cash.

The Treasury’s goal is to force the former holders of the short term bills to reinvest the cash further out on the yield curve in order to stem the rise in yields and the fall in bond prices.

The injection of $96 billion comes just before the Treasury settles the regularly scheduled net issuance of new notes and bonds at the turn of the month. This cash will help the market to absorb that new paper. Net issuance of that paper will be $174 billion. This was as forecast by the TBAC.

The declining bond prices are crushing the leveraged portfolios of Primary Dealers, with the resulting collateral calls. There’s been an imminent threat of contagion into stocks, and ultimately a systemic crash. We’ve seen vestiges of it in the form of downdrafts in stock prices in recent days. So far, they have not been sustained.

I have been warning about this approaching catastrophe for months. It now appears to be upon us. The Treasury’s injection, and any subsequent ones, will mitigate against that risk for the time being.

See these reports for more details, charts, and explanation, as well as strategy viewpoints.

Treasury Joins Fed to Try to Prevent Imminent System Collapse

Free Report – Proof of How QE Works – Fed to Primary Dealers, to Markets, To Money

Liquidity Trader Subscriber Reports –

Primary Dealers are Already Dead – Free Summary

Primary Dealers are Dead – Part 2 – Springtime Coming for Hibernating Bears – Free Summary

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days!

Act on real-time reality!

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Treasury Announces It Will Inject ANOTHER $41 Billion Next Week

Lee Adler

The Treasury is injecting more cash into the market. It announced today that it will do a second round of T-bill paydowns next week, adding another $41 billion in T-bill paydowns, to be settled on February 25. This is on top of the just announced $55 billion T-bill paydowns settling on February 23.

This means that the US Treasury will inject a total of $96 billion in cash into the market in two days. The Treasury is spending this money out if its $1.6 trillion cash hoard.  Treasury officials are obviously in a panic over the plunge in Treasury note and bond prices that accompanies the surge in the 10 year Treasury yield.

With good reason.

This will have an effect similar to Fed QE. Treasury paydowns put cash directly into the accounts of the dealers, banks, and investors who hold the expiring paper. The paydown of the expiring paper will simultaneously create a shortage of paper in which to reinvest cash.

The Treasury’s goal is to force the former holders of the short term bills to reinvest the cash further out on the yield curve in order to stem the rise in yields and the fall in bond prices.

The injection of $96 billion comes just before the Treasury settles the regularly scheduled net issuance of new notes and bonds at the turn of the month. This cash will help the market to absorb that new paper. Net issuance of that paper will be $174 billion. This was as forecast by the TBAC.

The declining bond prices are crushing the leveraged portfolios of Primary Dealers, with the resulting collateral calls. There’s been an imminent threat of contagion into stocks, and ultimately a systemic crash. We’ve seen vestiges of it in the form of downdrafts in stock prices in recent days. So far, they have not been sustained.

I have been warning about this approaching catastrophe for months. It now appears to be upon us. The Treasury’s injection, and any subsequent ones, will mitigate against that risk for the time being.

See these reports for more details, charts, and explanation, as well as strategy viewpoints.

Treasury Joins Fed to Try to Prevent Imminent System Collapse

Free Report – Proof of How QE Works – Fed to Primary Dealers, to Markets, To Money

Liquidity Trader Subscriber Reports –

Primary Dealers are Already Dead – Free Summary

Primary Dealers are Dead – Part 2 – Springtime Coming for Hibernating Bears – Free Summary

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days!

Act on real-time reality!

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Treasury Joins Fed to Try to Prevent Imminent System Collapse

Lee Adler

And I’ve spewed a whole lot of words over the past 3 weeks. Scary words. Words including warnings that one of the titans of the trading and brokerage industries has now echoed. Words about QE, the Primary Dealers, and the twin issues of current and expected Treasury supply, and the Treasury’s huge pile of cash, that it has just been sitting on.

Apparently, it has decided to start spending it. The first big spend is for paying down outstanding T-bills. Surprise, surprise.

We knew Janet had to spend the money. The 2019 budget law requires her to get the recent balance of $1.6 trillion down to $133 billion by August. We just didn’t know how she would do it – spend it directly in payment of the coming new stimulus legislation, or pay down debt.

Monday, we got our answer. I sent you a bulletin on that news. Click here if you missed it. They’re going to start by paying down a whopping $55 billion in Treasury bills expiring next Tuesday 2/23.

If this is the beginning of a policy of using the cash for debt paydowns, prior to the onset of the new stimulus spending, it would be bullish. It would be like more QE. At $220 billion every four weeks, a lot more.

Bullish. Except for one thing.

I’ll get into that in the report. The facts, figures, and outlook, are reserved for subscribers. Click here to download the report.

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Meanwhile, I saw a comment yesterday that Thomas Peterffy, the founder of Interactive Brokers, said that in the Gamestop short massacre, the brokerage system had actually come to the brink of collapse.

I told you on January 31 that this could happen, that we should all be very careful about protecting our assets. Peterffy confirmed this.

Here’s what I wrote  on 1/31/21

As the market amply demonstrated last week, margin can also work against short positions. Any big leveraged speculators who were short GME and other stocks that the wallstreetbets crowd decided to attack, saw their equity in the position wiped out, and then some. When they can’t come up with the cash, it puts the brokers, like Robinhood, at risk, and the brokers suffer tremendous losses too.

As the dominoes fall, it puts every single one of us at risk. The SIPC only covers so much, and if we are in stock positions, it can take months for those positions to be released, by which time who knows what might happen.

I just don’t like the risks here, either long or short. I have my personal account with a smallish firm that specializes in technical trading and has been around for years. They’re owned by a Japanese institution. Am I safe? I doubt it. I’m in cash at the moment, but I’m considering moving it back into my bank account and then into T-bills via Treasury Direct.

True, maybe big profits lie ahead on the short side, but I’m not sure I’ll be able to access them if that turns out to be right. Systemic collapse is not a good thing from that perspective.

Yeah, I’m paranoid. If this debt financed, hollow, asset price mountain begins to collapse, I’m just not sure that the Fed will be able to reflate it this time. I think we’re all playing a little Russian Roulette here. We haven’t hit the chamber with the bullet yet, but that clicking sound from each spin is terrifying.

I had posted my concerns about things getting this bad way back in October.

10/2/20 A massive amount of leverage has been floated to buy and hold these [Treasury] positions. If yields break out, the mirror image of a price breakdown, the margin calls will go out. The response in the markets will be ferocious. Overleveraged dealers and hedge funds will sell anything that isn’t nailed down, and some stuff that is, to meet those margin calls.

The Fed will be forced to act again to keep them in business. One of these days, this game will stop working. Even assuming we manage to get short in time, I’m not even sure that being short the market at that point would do much good. What if your brokerage firm collapses?

I’m beginning to think that it would be a good idea to hold some assets outside the conventional banking/brokerage system. Whether that’s T-bills in Treasury Direct, bitcoin, gold, or other assets—these are things we need to think about.

We are most assuredly not out of the woods yet.

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Bulletin! Treasury Paying Down $55 BILLION RIGHT NOW to AVERT CATASTROPHE!

Lee Adler

This is big.

In a panic over the surge in the 10 year Treasury yield and the attendant fall in Treasury note and bond prices, the US Treasury announced today that it would pay down $55 billion in outstanding T-bills.

The funds will settle a week from today, on February 23.

This is cash that will go directly into the accounts of the dealers, banks, and investors who hold the expiring paper. The paydown of the expiring paper will simultaneously create a shortage of paper in which to reinvest cash.

The Treasury’s goal is to force the former holders of the short term bills to reinvest the cash further out on the yield curve in order to stem the rise in yields and the fall in bond prices.

The declining bond prices are crushing the leveraged portfolios of Primary Dealers, with the resulting collateral calls. There’s an imminent threat of contagion into stocks, and ultimately a systemic crash, within the next few days if the plunge in bond prices is not reversed.

I have been warning about this approaching catastrophe for months. It now appears to be upon us.

See these reports for more details, as well as strategy viewpoints.

Free Report – Proof of How QE Works – Fed to Primary Dealers, to Markets, To Money

Liquidity Trader Subscriber Reports –

Primary Dealers are Already Dead – Free Summary

Primary Dealers are Dead – Part 2 – Springtime Coming for Hibernating Bears – Free Summary

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days!

Act on real-time reality!

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