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Category: 2 – Technical Trader

Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis with market trend and position ideas for investors and weekly individual stock swing trade ideas for traders. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Weak Week but List Stays Net Positive

The screens produced 14 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days. There were 97 charts with a second sell signal. I reviewed all of the charts and found 2 that I liked as shorts and no buys. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

3 existing buys and 1 existing short on the list hit stops last week. After these changes, and including the 2 new picks, there will be 10 longs and 5 shorts on the list this week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The new picks will be added without stops. I have assumed risk mitigation through diversification and small position sizes. I have added or adjusted stops on 13 of the existing picks and left two without stops. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week was a a bad week, as my picks from last week were all on the long side and all broke bad, except one. Currently open picks and those closed out last week, show an average theoretical gain of 4.2% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. This was down from a 5.5% average gain last week on an average 23 day holding period.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

Weaker Than It Should Be Means Worse To Come

We expected an intermediate top, but as of right now, the market is on the brink of being weaker than it should be in cycle structures. Here’s how it sets up, along with what to look for this week that will tell us whether this will get worse.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

I Liked the Buys Better Than the Sells

The screens produced 36 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days. There were 170 charts with a second sell signal. I reviewed all of the charts on the buy side and about half the sells. Oddly I found 9 charts that I liked on the buy side and none on the sell side. The 9 buys are shown on the summary table below. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

4 existing buys and 2 existing shorts on the list hit stops last week. After these changes, there were 10 remaining active picks on the list of which there are 4 longs and 7 shorts. Including the 9 new picks, there will be 13 longs and 7 shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The new picks will be added without stops. In recent months I have been allowing the picks to age for at least 4 weeks before adding stops. I have assumed risk mitigation through diversification and small position sizes. I have adjusted stops on 8 of the existing picks and left two without stops. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week was a decent week, continuing a decent month. Non-subscribers click here for access. Currently open picks and those closed out last week, show an average theoretical gain of 5.5% on an average holding period of 23 calendar days. 75% of the picks closed last week or still on the list had gains.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

The Calm Before the Storm

With half the world on vacation this week, the market seems in a similar mood. Is it the calm before the storm? This report answers the question and shows why. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

All We Need is a Few Good Shorts

The screens produced 54 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days. There were 118 charts with a second sell signal. Considering that the broad market indicators suggested top formation I was more interested in reviewing the charts on the sell side for short sale candidates. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

While I looked at the buy side, we have enough buys on the list and I started with the thought that I am reluctant to add more. Non-subscribers click here for access.

After visual review, I chose 5 charts to add to the short sale side. These are shown on the table below. Non-subscribers click here for access.

8 existing buys on the list hit stops last week. I also dropped two shorts as of the opening price on August 1. After these changes, there will 15 active picks on the list of which there are 7 longs and 8 shorts including the 5 new ones. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The original 10 have aged enough that I’ve added stops to all of them. The new picks will be added without stops. In recent months I have been allowing the picks to age for at least 4 weeks before adding stops. I have assumed risk mitigation through diversification and small position sizes. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week was a good week, and a good start for the month. Most of the longs on the list did well because they were in the oil sector. I had added them 4 weeks ago when there were numerous buy signals in that sector. Whenever there’s a cluster of signals in a sector, it’s usually a good sign that the group is going to have a move. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Currently open picks and those closed out last week, show an average theoretical gain of 5.7% on an average holding period of 29 calendar days. 67% of the picks closed last week or still on the list had gains. Non-subscribers click here for access.

July had been difficult. After starting off with a string of losses on closed picks, the month ended at dead breakeven on the basis of a good last two weeks. Just 59% of the picks were winners, and the result was only a breakeven. I marvel at those options tout services who report 1000% gains month after month. But I wonder why they don’t own the world. Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/10/23 June was solid, with 25 picks closed at an average theoretical gain of 9.7% on an average holding period of 36 calendar days. The numbers assume all cash, no leverage, no margin, no options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Table in report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports. 

Under the Big Top

There were lots of signs that the xxxxxxx cycle topped out last week, but nothing that will signal how weak the down phase will be. It depends on whether a couple of key support lines that are just below current levels, hold or not. This report tells you how long the down phase will last, what it means for the big picture, and the key levels that will tell us what’s next.   Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Thanks But No Thanks

The screens produced 171 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days. There were 42 charts with a second sell signal. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Last week was a good week for the longs on the list and another bad week for the shorts.  Picks closed out last week or currently open, show an average theoretical gain of 4.9% on an average holding period of 26 calendar days. 69% of the picks show gains. 31% have losses. The numbers assume all cash, no leverage, no margin, no options. show losses. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The month of July as a whole was difficult. After starting off with a string of losses on closed picks, the month ended at dead breakeven on closed picks,  thanks to the good last two weeks. 63% of the picks were winners, but the result was only a breakeven. I marvel at those options tout services who report 1000% gains month after month. But I wonder why they don’t own the world. Non-subscribers click here for access.

June was solid, with 25 picks closed at an average theoretical gain of 9.7% on an average holding period of 36 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

 

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Table in report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Rally is Tired But Here’s Why Not to Go Short

The cycle layout suggests that there’s only x-x% upside left in this move. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Full Load of Longs, But Adding 2 Shorts

I’m adding 2 shorts to the list, against 0 buys. With 19 longs already on the list, and the uptrend aging, I’m reluctant to add more at this point. Consequently, I did not review the buy signal charts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The screens produced 127 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the past week. There were 78 charts with a second sell signal. We have enough buys on the list, and with the age of the uptrend, I’m more willing to look at the short term sell signals. What I saw were a lot of sell signals within uptrends. I’m not a fan of trying to pick countertrend top swing trades. Too often the pullbacks are shallow, or don’t happen at all. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Two shorts hit stops last week. I’m closing out another one based on the opening price this morning. After these changes, there will now be 25 active picks on the list of which, 19 are buys, and 7 are shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week was a good rebound week for us after a bad start in the first week of the month.. Picks closed out last week, or currently open, show an average theoretical gain of 4.1% on an average holding period of 20 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

However, so as not to mislead, 12 picks closed out so far in July have all been losers, in honor of cut your losses and let your profits run. I’ll do a full accounting of the month next week. For now, including open positions, the month is a hair above break even. Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/10/23 June was solid, with 25 picks closed at an average theoretical gain of 9.7% on an average holding period of 36 calendar days. The numbers assume all cash, no leverage, no margin, no options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I have adjusted or added stops on just a few of the picks. The rest I have left without stops because the price and indicator patterns are good, so I will let those ride, with the assumption of risk mitigation through diversification and small position sizes. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Table in report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Market Looks Poised

I am on a train to Nuremberg this morning. Lots of thoughts about what happened here 8 decades ago.

Meanwhile, I see no reason yet to have major doubt about this market trend. It’s due for a breather, but looks just as due for more upside first. Here’s what to look for.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.